La escuela de los momios

Real Sociedad v CA Osasuna

Inicio: 2026-03-15 20:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

59 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Real Sociedad (Local)

Predicción 49.23%2.03momio equitativo
EV -0.559%
Ventaja -0.277%
Kelly -0.548%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.02

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
46.89%49.11%49.16%51.22%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.781.911.912.0256.18%52.37%52.36%49.50%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

CA Osasuna (Visitante)

Predicción 23.96%4.17momio equitativo
EV +4.20%
Ventaja +0.967%
Kelly +1.26%
Crecimiento +0.053%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.35

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.26%24.01%23.99%25.61%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.503.974.004.3528.57%25.19%25.00%22.99%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 26.82%3.73momio equitativo
EV -1.05%
Ventaja -0.284%
Kelly -0.389%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.69

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.86%26.88%26.85%28.60%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.503.503.6933.33%28.58%28.57%27.10%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (59 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet (NL)1.89I 52.91%NM 51.22%EV -6.96%E -3.68%K -7.82%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.26%EV +4.20%E +0.967%K +1.26%G +0.053%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.52%EV -2.12%E -0.581%K -0.800%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-15 13:50
ATG (SE)1.93I 51.81%NM 50.57%EV -4.99%E -2.59%K -5.36%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.70%EV +3.01%E +0.699%K +0.911%G +0.027%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.74%EV -2.12%E -0.581%K -0.800%G +0.000%2.5%2026-03-15 19:10
Unibet (SE)1.91I 52.36%NM 50.83%EV -5.97%E -3.13%K -6.56%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.58%EV +3.01%E +0.699%K +0.911%G +0.027%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.60%EV -2.12%E -0.581%K -0.800%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-15 19:05
Svenska Spel1.91I 52.36%NM 50.83%EV -5.97%E -3.13%K -6.56%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.58%EV +3.01%E +0.699%K +0.911%G +0.027%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.60%EV -2.12%E -0.581%K -0.800%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-15 19:10
1xBet1.91I 52.36%NM 50.73%EV -5.97%E -3.13%K -6.56%G +0.000%4.21I 23.75%NM 23.01%EV +0.851%E +0.202%K +0.265%G +0.002%3.69I 27.10%NM 26.26%EV -1.05%E -0.284%K -0.389%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-15 19:55
Casumo1.87I 53.48%NM 50.71%EV -7.94%E -4.25%K -9.13%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.58%EV +0.612%E +0.146%K +0.191%G +0.001%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.71%EV -4.80%E -1.35%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-15 13:50
Grosvenor1.87I 53.48%NM 50.71%EV -7.94%E -4.25%K -9.13%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.58%EV +0.612%E +0.146%K +0.191%G +0.001%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.71%EV -4.80%E -1.35%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-15 19:10
Bally Bet1.87I 53.48%NM 50.71%EV -7.94%E -4.25%K -9.13%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.58%EV +0.612%E +0.146%K +0.191%G +0.001%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.71%EV -4.80%E -1.35%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-15 19:10
betPARX1.87I 53.48%NM 50.71%EV -7.94%E -4.25%K -9.13%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.58%EV +0.612%E +0.146%K +0.191%G +0.001%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.71%EV -4.80%E -1.35%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-15 19:10
TABtouch1.85I 54.05%NM 50.79%EV -8.93%E -4.83%K -10.50%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV +0.612%E +0.146%K +0.191%G +0.001%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.84%EV -6.14%E -1.75%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-15 19:40
Unibet1.85I 54.05%NM 50.79%EV -8.93%E -4.83%K -10.50%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV +0.612%E +0.146%K +0.191%G +0.001%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.84%EV -6.14%E -1.75%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-15 19:40
LeoVegas (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.79%EV -8.93%E -4.83%K -10.50%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV +0.612%E +0.146%K +0.191%G +0.001%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.84%EV -6.14%E -1.75%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-15 19:10
Pinnacle1.99I 50.25%NM 48.86%EV -2.04%E -1.02%K -2.06%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.43%EV -0.586%E -0.141%K -0.186%G +0.000%3.51I 28.49%NM 27.70%EV -5.87%E -1.67%K -2.34%G +0.000%2.8%2026-03-15 19:55
Coolbet1.98I 50.51%NM 49.00%EV -2.53%E -1.28%K -2.58%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.67%EV -1.78%E -0.435%K -0.575%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.33%EV -4.80%E -1.35%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-15 19:55
Marathon Bet1.96I 51.02%NM 49.44%EV -3.51%E -1.79%K -3.66%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.64%EV -1.78%E -0.435%K -0.575%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.92%EV -3.46%E -0.961%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-15 19:55
BetOnline.ag1.93I 51.81%NM 50.01%EV -4.99%E -2.59%K -5.36%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.54%EV -1.78%E -0.435%K -0.575%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.44%EV -2.12%E -0.581%K -0.800%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-15 10:20
BetUS1.91I 52.36%NM 49.90%EV -5.97%E -3.13%K -6.56%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.25%EV -1.78%E -0.435%K -0.575%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.85%EV -4.80%E -1.35%K -1.88%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-15 14:10
FanDuel1.91I 52.36%NM 49.32%EV -5.97%E -3.13%K -6.56%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -1.78%E -0.435%K -0.575%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -8.82%E -2.60%K -3.68%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-15 19:40
BetRivers1.83I 54.64%NM 50.78%EV -9.91%E -5.42%K -11.94%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -1.78%E -0.435%K -0.575%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -6.14%E -1.75%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-15 19:10
LeoVegas1.82I 54.95%NM 50.72%EV -10.40%E -5.72%K -12.69%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.52%EV -1.78%E -0.435%K -0.575%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.76%EV -7.48%E -2.17%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-15 19:10
Bovada1.95I 51.28%NM 48.66%EV -4.00%E -2.05%K -4.22%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.43%EV -2.98%E -0.736%K -0.978%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.91%EV -8.82%E -2.60%K -3.68%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-15 19:54
LowVig.ag1.96I 51.02%NM 49.23%EV -3.51%E -1.79%K -3.66%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.12%EV -4.18%E -1.04%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.65%EV -2.92%E -0.808%K -1.12%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-15 19:55
Betclic (FR)1.94I 51.55%NM 49.52%EV -4.50%E -2.32%K -4.78%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.02%EV -4.18%E -1.04%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 26.46%EV -2.66%E -0.732%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-15 19:51
Fanatics1.95I 51.28%NM 48.52%EV -4.00%E -2.05%K -4.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -4.18%E -1.04%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -8.82%E -2.60%K -3.68%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-15 19:50
Everygame1.95I 51.28%NM 48.52%EV -4.00%E -2.05%K -4.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -4.18%E -1.04%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -8.82%E -2.60%K -3.68%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-15 19:55
Sky Bet1.91I 52.36%NM 49.43%EV -5.97%E -3.13%K -6.56%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -4.18%E -1.04%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -6.14%E -1.75%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-15 19:15
Tipico (DE)1.90I 52.63%NM 49.56%EV -6.47%E -3.40%K -7.18%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -4.18%E -1.04%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV -6.14%E -1.75%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-15 19:40
Paddy Power1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -5.97%E -3.13%K -6.56%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -4.18%E -1.04%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -8.82%E -2.60%K -3.68%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-15 19:15
SportsBet1.90I 52.63%NM 49.17%EV -6.47%E -3.40%K -7.18%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -4.18%E -1.04%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.48%EV -8.82%E -2.60%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-15 19:15
PMU (FR)1.90I 52.63%NM 49.17%EV -6.47%E -3.40%K -7.18%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -4.18%E -1.04%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.48%EV -8.82%E -2.60%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-15 19:15
Unibet (FR)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.54%EV -8.93%E -4.83%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.49%EV -4.66%E -1.17%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -3.46%E -0.961%K -1.33%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-15 19:55
Codere (IT)1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -4.50%E -2.32%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.10%EV -5.38%E -1.36%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.82%EV -4.80%E -1.35%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-15 19:55
DraftKings1.95I 51.28%NM 48.76%EV -4.00%E -2.05%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.07%EV -5.38%E -1.36%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.17%EV -6.14%E -1.75%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-15 19:50
Virgin Bet1.84I 54.35%NM 50.02%EV -9.42%E -5.12%K -11.21%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.30%EV -5.38%E -1.36%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.68%EV -7.48%E -2.17%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-15 19:10
LiveScore Bet1.84I 54.35%NM 50.02%EV -9.42%E -5.12%K -11.21%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.30%EV -5.38%E -1.36%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.68%EV -7.48%E -2.17%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-15 19:10
Coral1.95I 51.28%NM 48.98%EV -4.00%E -2.05%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.49%EV -6.57%E -1.69%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -3.46%E -0.961%K -1.33%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-15 19:45
Winamax (DE)1.94I 51.55%NM 48.93%EV -4.50%E -2.32%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.34%EV -6.57%E -1.69%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.74%EV -4.80%E -1.35%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-15 19:55
BetMGM1.91I 52.36%NM 49.50%EV -5.97%E -3.13%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.24%EV -6.57%E -1.69%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.26%EV -3.46%E -0.961%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-15 08:55
Unibet (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 49.13%EV -5.97%E -3.13%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -6.57%E -1.69%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.81%EV -6.14%E -1.75%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-15 19:40
Parions Sport (FR)1.88I 53.19%NM 49.71%EV -7.45%E -3.96%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.96%EV -6.57%E -1.69%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.33%EV -4.80%E -1.35%K -1.88%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-15 19:50
Bet Victor1.95I 51.28%NM 48.67%EV -4.00%E -2.05%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.97%EV -8.97%E -2.36%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.36%EV -3.46%E -0.961%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-15 19:50
theScore Bet1.95I 51.28%NM 48.67%EV -4.00%E -2.05%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.97%EV -8.97%E -2.36%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.36%EV -3.46%E -0.961%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-15 19:50
Betway1.95I 51.28%NM 48.30%EV -4.00%E -2.05%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -8.97%E -2.36%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -6.14%E -1.75%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-15 17:50
Ladbrokes (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -5.97%E -3.13%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -8.97%E -2.36%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -6.14%E -1.75%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-15 19:45
Neds1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -5.97%E -3.13%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -8.97%E -2.36%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -6.14%E -1.75%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-15 19:45
Ladbrokes (AU)1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -5.97%E -3.13%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -8.97%E -2.36%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -6.14%E -1.75%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-15 19:45
Winamax (FR)1.90I 52.63%NM 48.95%EV -6.47%E -3.40%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -8.97%E -2.36%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.57%EV -6.14%E -1.75%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-15 19:55
Mr Green (SE)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.53%EV -4.00%E -2.05%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.39%EV -8.97%E -2.36%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -11.51%E -3.49%K -5.00%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-15 19:50
William Hill1.95I 51.28%NM 47.53%EV -4.00%E -2.05%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.39%EV -8.97%E -2.36%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -11.51%E -3.49%K -5.00%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-15 19:55
Fliff1.83I 54.64%NM 49.51%EV -9.91%E -5.42%K -11.94%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.84%EV -8.97%E -2.36%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -8.82%E -2.60%K -3.68%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-15 19:15
BoyleSports1.83I 54.64%NM 49.51%EV -9.91%E -5.42%K -11.94%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.84%EV -8.97%E -2.36%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -8.82%E -2.60%K -3.68%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-15 17:15
Betsson2.02I 49.50%NM 46.92%EV -0.559%E -0.277%K -0.548%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.61%EV -11.37%E -3.07%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.47%EV -7.48%E -2.17%K -3.05%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-15 19:50
NordicBet2.02I 49.50%NM 46.92%EV -0.559%E -0.277%K -0.548%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.61%EV -11.37%E -3.07%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.47%EV -7.48%E -2.17%K -3.05%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-15 19:50
TAB2.00I 50.00%NM 46.98%EV -1.54%E -0.772%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -11.37%E -3.07%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -8.82%E -2.60%K -3.68%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-15 19:55
Betr (AU)1.90I 52.63%NM 48.99%EV -6.47%E -3.40%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.16%EV -11.37%E -3.07%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.86%EV -3.46%E -0.961%K -1.33%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-15 19:50
PlayUp1.95I 51.28%NM 47.41%EV -4.00%E -2.05%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.99%EV -11.37%E -3.07%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.60%EV -10.16%E -3.03%K -4.33%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-15 19:50
NetBet (FR)1.78I 56.18%NM 49.69%EV -12.37%E -6.95%K -15.86%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.91%EV -11.37%E -3.07%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.40%EV -10.16%E -3.03%K -4.33%G +0.000%13.1%2026-03-15 19:44
Bet Right1.92I 52.08%NM 48.38%EV -5.48%E -2.85%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.45%EV -12.56%E -3.44%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.17%EV -4.80%E -1.35%K -1.88%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-15 19:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.83I 54.64%NM 46.89%EV -9.91%E -5.42%K -11.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.51%EV -16.16%E -4.62%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.60%EV -19.55%E -6.52%K -9.78%G +0.000%16.5%2026-03-15 19:40
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.04I 49.02%NM 48.72%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.67%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.61%0.6%2026-03-15 19:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.04I 49.02%NM 48.72%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.67%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.61%0.6%2026-03-15 19:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.04I 49.02%NM 48.72%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.67%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.61%0.6%2026-03-15 19:55
Matchbook2.04I 49.02%NM 48.72%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.67%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.61%0.6%2026-03-15 19:55
Smarkets2.04I 49.02%NM 48.54%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.57%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.89%1.0%2026-03-15 19:55
Kalshi1.96I 51.02%NM 49.53%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.28%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.19%3.0%2026-03-15 19:20