La escuela de los momios

Real Madrid v Girona

Inicio: 2026-04-10 19:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Real Madrid (Local)

Predicción 72.01%1.39momio equitativo
EV -0.632%
Ventaja -0.458%
Kelly -1.66%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.38

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
68.34%71.69%72.09%74.80%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.241.311.301.3880.65%76.50%76.92%72.46%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Girona (Visitante)

Predicción 11.80%8.48momio equitativo
EV +12.08%
Ventaja +1.27%
Kelly +1.42%
Crecimiento +0.172%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 9.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
10.00%12.04%11.77%14.60%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
6.408.118.459.5015.63%12.32%11.83%10.53%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 16.20%6.17momio equitativo
EV +5.28%
Ventaja +0.812%
Kelly +0.960%
Crecimiento +0.051%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
14.71%16.27%16.14%19.07%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.505.855.956.5022.22%17.08%16.81%15.38%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Bally Bet1.27I 78.74%NM 74.80%EV -8.55%E -6.73%K -31.68%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.00%EV +12.08%E +1.27%K +1.42%G +0.172%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV +1.23%E +0.197%K +0.234%G +0.003%5.3%2026-04-10 18:55
Unibet (FR)1.30I 76.92%NM 73.68%EV -6.39%E -4.92%K -21.31%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.36%EV +9.13%E +0.987%K +1.11%G +0.101%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.96%EV -2.82%E -0.470%K -0.564%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-10 18:44
Betclic (FR)1.30I 76.92%NM 73.68%EV -6.39%E -4.92%K -21.31%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.36%EV +9.13%E +0.987%K +1.11%G +0.101%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.96%EV -2.82%E -0.470%K -0.564%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-10 18:36
Marathon Bet1.34I 74.63%NM 72.95%EV -3.51%E -2.62%K -10.33%G +0.000%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.62%EV +8.54%E +0.928%K +1.04%G +0.089%5.95I 16.81%NM 16.43%EV -3.63%E -0.610%K -0.733%G +0.000%2.3%2026-04-10 18:55
1xBet1.32I 75.76%NM 73.54%EV -4.95%E -3.75%K -15.48%G +0.000%9.14I 10.94%NM 10.62%EV +7.83%E +0.857%K +0.962%G +0.075%6.13I 16.31%NM 15.84%EV -0.715%E -0.117%K -0.139%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-10 18:54
Pinnacle1.34I 74.63%NM 72.57%EV -3.51%E -2.62%K -10.33%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.81%EV +6.18%E +0.687%K +0.773%G +0.048%5.85I 17.09%NM 16.62%EV -5.25%E -0.897%K -1.08%G +0.000%2.8%2026-04-10 18:55
Coolbet1.33I 75.19%NM 73.02%EV -4.23%E -3.18%K -12.83%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.79%EV +6.18%E +0.687%K +0.773%G +0.048%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.19%EV -2.82%E -0.470%K -0.564%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-10 17:55
Unibet (SE)1.30I 76.92%NM 74.38%EV -6.39%E -4.92%K -21.31%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.74%EV +6.18%E +0.687%K +0.773%G +0.048%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.88%EV +5.28%E +0.812%K +0.960%G +0.051%3.4%2026-04-10 18:55
Svenska Spel1.30I 76.92%NM 74.38%EV -6.39%E -4.92%K -21.31%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.74%EV +6.18%E +0.687%K +0.773%G +0.048%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.88%EV +5.28%E +0.812%K +0.960%G +0.051%3.4%2026-04-10 18:55
ATG (SE)1.30I 76.92%NM 74.38%EV -6.39%E -4.92%K -21.31%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.74%EV +6.18%E +0.687%K +0.773%G +0.048%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.88%EV +5.28%E +0.812%K +0.960%G +0.051%3.4%2026-04-10 18:55
BetOnline.ag1.32I 75.76%NM 73.07%EV -4.95%E -3.75%K -15.48%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.72%EV +6.18%E +0.687%K +0.773%G +0.048%5.95I 16.81%NM 16.21%EV -3.63%E -0.610%K -0.733%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-10 18:50
LowVig.ag1.32I 75.76%NM 73.07%EV -4.95%E -3.75%K -15.48%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.72%EV +6.18%E +0.687%K +0.773%G +0.048%5.95I 16.81%NM 16.21%EV -3.63%E -0.610%K -0.733%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-10 18:50
Unibet (NL)1.28I 78.13%NM 74.67%EV -7.83%E -6.12%K -27.97%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.62%EV +6.18%E +0.687%K +0.773%G +0.048%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.71%EV +5.28%E +0.812%K +0.960%G +0.051%4.6%2026-04-10 18:55
Grosvenor1.28I 78.13%NM 73.96%EV -7.83%E -6.12%K -27.97%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.52%EV +6.18%E +0.687%K +0.773%G +0.048%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.52%EV -1.20%E -0.197%K -0.235%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-10 18:20
Casumo1.28I 78.13%NM 73.96%EV -7.83%E -6.12%K -27.97%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.52%EV +6.18%E +0.687%K +0.773%G +0.048%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.52%EV -1.20%E -0.197%K -0.235%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-10 18:20
betPARX1.28I 78.13%NM 73.96%EV -7.83%E -6.12%K -27.97%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.52%EV +6.18%E +0.687%K +0.773%G +0.048%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.52%EV -1.20%E -0.197%K -0.235%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-10 18:20
Fanatics1.29I 77.52%NM 73.12%EV -7.11%E -5.51%K -24.53%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.48%EV +6.18%E +0.687%K +0.773%G +0.048%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.40%EV -6.87%E -1.19%K -1.45%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-10 18:31
Unibet1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -8.55%E -6.73%K -31.68%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.43%EV +6.18%E +0.687%K +0.773%G +0.048%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.65%EV -2.82%E -0.470%K -0.564%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-10 18:15
TABtouch1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -8.55%E -6.73%K -31.68%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.43%EV +6.18%E +0.687%K +0.773%G +0.048%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.65%EV -2.82%E -0.470%K -0.564%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-10 18:15
LeoVegas (SE)1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -8.55%E -6.73%K -31.68%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.43%EV +6.18%E +0.687%K +0.773%G +0.048%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.65%EV -2.82%E -0.470%K -0.564%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-10 18:15
PMU (FR)1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -9.27%E -7.36%K -35.67%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.37%EV +6.18%E +0.687%K +0.773%G +0.048%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -2.82%E -0.470%K -0.564%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-10 18:55
BetRivers1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -9.27%E -7.36%K -35.67%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.37%EV +6.18%E +0.687%K +0.773%G +0.048%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -2.82%E -0.470%K -0.564%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-10 18:20
LeoVegas1.24I 80.65%NM 73.99%EV -10.71%E -8.64%K -44.64%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.19%EV +6.18%E +0.687%K +0.773%G +0.048%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.82%EV -6.06%E -1.04%K -1.26%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-10 18:20
Everygame1.33I 75.19%NM 71.52%EV -4.23%E -3.18%K -12.83%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.19%EV +0.281%E +0.033%K +0.037%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -10.92%E -1.99%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-10 18:55
FanDuel1.31I 76.34%NM 72.46%EV -5.67%E -4.33%K -18.30%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.17%EV +0.281%E +0.033%K +0.037%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.37%EV -6.06%E -1.04%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-10 18:55
SportsBet1.30I 76.92%NM 71.98%EV -6.39%E -4.92%K -21.31%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.01%EV +0.281%E +0.033%K +0.037%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.01%EV -10.92%E -1.99%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-10 18:31
LiveScore Bet1.24I 80.65%NM 73.93%EV -10.71%E -8.64%K -44.64%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.79%EV +0.281%E +0.033%K +0.037%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.28%EV -2.82%E -0.470%K -0.564%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-10 18:55
Virgin Bet1.24I 80.65%NM 73.93%EV -10.71%E -8.64%K -44.64%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.79%EV +0.281%E +0.033%K +0.037%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.28%EV -2.82%E -0.470%K -0.564%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-10 18:55
BetUS1.32I 75.76%NM 72.06%EV -4.95%E -3.75%K -15.48%G +0.000%8.45I 11.83%NM 11.26%EV -0.309%E -0.037%K -0.041%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.69%EV -7.68%E -1.35%K -1.63%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-10 18:55
DraftKings1.34I 74.63%NM 71.40%EV -3.51%E -2.62%K -10.33%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.96%EV -5.62%E -0.702%K -0.803%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.64%EV -6.87%E -1.19%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-10 18:55
theScore Bet1.31I 76.34%NM 72.35%EV -5.67%E -4.33%K -18.30%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.85%EV -5.62%E -0.702%K -0.803%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.80%EV -2.82%E -0.470%K -0.564%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-10 18:55
Tipico (DE)1.30I 76.92%NM 72.51%EV -6.39%E -4.92%K -21.31%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.78%EV -5.62%E -0.702%K -0.803%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.71%EV -2.82%E -0.470%K -0.564%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-10 18:45
Sky Bet1.30I 76.92%NM 72.51%EV -6.39%E -4.92%K -21.31%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.78%EV -5.62%E -0.702%K -0.803%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.71%EV -2.82%E -0.470%K -0.564%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-10 18:54
Paddy Power1.30I 76.92%NM 71.49%EV -6.39%E -4.92%K -21.31%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.62%EV -5.62%E -0.702%K -0.803%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -10.92%E -1.99%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-10 18:55
William Hill1.30I 76.92%NM 71.49%EV -6.39%E -4.92%K -21.31%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.62%EV -5.62%E -0.702%K -0.803%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -10.92%E -1.99%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-10 18:50
Mr Green (SE)1.30I 76.92%NM 71.49%EV -6.39%E -4.92%K -21.31%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.62%EV -5.62%E -0.702%K -0.803%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -10.92%E -1.99%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-10 18:50
NetBet (FR)1.28I 78.13%NM 72.43%EV -7.83%E -6.12%K -27.97%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.59%EV -5.62%E -0.702%K -0.803%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.98%EV -6.06%E -1.04%K -1.26%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-10 18:55
Betr (AU)1.32I 75.76%NM 70.91%EV -4.95%E -3.75%K -15.48%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.08%EV -8.57%E -1.11%K -1.27%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.02%EV -10.92%E -1.99%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-10 18:55
Codere (IT)1.33I 75.19%NM 71.60%EV -4.23%E -3.18%K -12.83%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.53%EV -10.34%E -1.36%K -1.57%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.87%EV -2.82%E -0.470%K -0.564%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-10 18:55
Fliff1.27I 78.74%NM 71.89%EV -8.55%E -6.73%K -31.68%G +0.000%7.55I 13.25%NM 12.09%EV -10.93%E -1.45%K -1.67%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.02%EV -7.68%E -1.35%K -1.63%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-10 18:55
Bet Victor1.33I 75.19%NM 70.99%EV -4.23%E -3.18%K -12.83%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -11.52%E -1.54%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -6.87%E -1.19%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-10 18:55
Bet Right1.31I 76.34%NM 70.78%EV -5.67%E -4.33%K -18.30%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -11.52%E -1.54%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.86%EV -10.92%E -1.99%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-10 18:55
NordicBet1.35I 74.07%NM 70.86%EV -2.79%E -2.07%K -7.98%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.93%EV -12.70%E -1.72%K -1.98%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.21%EV -4.44%E -0.753%K -0.906%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-10 18:55
Betsson1.35I 74.07%NM 70.86%EV -2.79%E -2.07%K -7.98%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.93%EV -12.70%E -1.72%K -1.98%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.21%EV -4.44%E -0.753%K -0.906%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-10 18:55
Winamax (DE)1.33I 75.19%NM 70.84%EV -4.23%E -3.18%K -12.83%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.46%EV -17.42%E -2.49%K -2.90%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.70%EV -2.82%E -0.470%K -0.564%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-10 18:50
Unibet (UK)1.34I 74.63%NM 70.20%EV -3.51%E -2.62%K -10.33%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.44%EV -17.42%E -2.49%K -2.90%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.36%EV -6.87%E -1.19%K -1.45%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-10 18:50
TAB1.32I 75.76%NM 70.99%EV -4.95%E -3.75%K -15.48%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV -17.42%E -2.49%K -2.90%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.62%EV -2.82%E -0.470%K -0.564%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-10 18:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.25I 80.00%NM 68.66%EV -9.99%E -7.99%K -39.97%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.26%EV -17.42%E -2.49%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.07%EV -27.12%E -6.03%K -7.75%G +0.000%16.5%2026-04-10 18:00
PlayUp1.33I 75.19%NM 69.50%EV -4.23%E -3.18%K -12.83%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.69%EV -20.36%E -3.02%K -3.54%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -10.92%E -1.99%K -2.43%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-10 18:55
Coral1.36I 73.53%NM 69.64%EV -2.07%E -1.52%K -5.76%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.57%EV -23.31%E -3.59%K -4.24%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.79%EV -2.82%E -0.470%K -0.564%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-10 18:55
BetMGM1.36I 73.53%NM 69.64%EV -2.07%E -1.52%K -5.76%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.57%EV -23.31%E -3.59%K -4.24%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.79%EV -2.82%E -0.470%K -0.564%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-10 18:53
Betway1.38I 72.46%NM 68.34%EV -0.632%E -0.458%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.51%EV -23.31%E -3.59%K -4.24%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.15%EV -10.92%E -1.99%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-10 18:55
Ladbrokes (UK)1.36I 73.53%NM 69.17%EV -2.07%E -1.52%K -5.76%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -23.31%E -3.59%K -4.24%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.36%EV -6.87%E -1.19%K -1.45%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-10 18:55
Winamax (FR)1.31I 76.34%NM 70.06%EV -5.67%E -4.33%K -18.30%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.12%EV -23.31%E -3.59%K -4.24%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.82%EV -6.06%E -1.04%K -1.26%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-10 18:55
BoyleSports1.30I 76.92%NM 68.49%EV -6.39%E -4.92%K -21.31%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.70%EV -23.31%E -3.59%K -4.24%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.81%EV -19.02%E -3.80%K -4.75%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-10 18:55
Neds1.36I 73.53%NM 68.71%EV -2.07%E -1.52%K -5.76%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.60%EV -24.49%E -3.83%K -4.54%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.69%EV -9.30%E -1.66%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-10 18:55
Ladbrokes (AU)1.36I 73.53%NM 68.71%EV -2.07%E -1.52%K -5.76%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.60%EV -24.49%E -3.83%K -4.54%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.69%EV -9.30%E -1.66%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-10 18:55
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook1.36I 73.53%NM 73.47%9.60I 10.42%NM 10.41%6.20I 16.13%NM 16.12%0.1%2026-04-10 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.36I 73.53%NM 73.31%9.40I 10.64%NM 10.61%6.20I 16.13%NM 16.08%0.3%2026-04-10 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.35I 74.07%NM 73.77%9.80I 10.20%NM 10.16%6.20I 16.13%NM 16.06%0.4%2026-04-10 18:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.35I 74.07%NM 73.77%9.80I 10.20%NM 10.16%6.20I 16.13%NM 16.06%0.4%2026-04-10 18:40
Smarkets1.35I 74.07%NM 73.46%9.40I 10.64%NM 10.55%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.99%0.8%2026-04-10 18:55
Kalshi1.33I 75.19%NM 73.58%9.09I 11.00%NM 10.77%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.66%2.2%2026-04-10 18:30