L’École des cotes

Real Madrid v Athletic Bilbao

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-23 19:00 UTC

Score final : Real Madrid 4–2 Athletic Bilbao

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

59 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Real Madrid (Local)

Prévision 61.68%1.62cote équitable
EV -1.32%
Avantage -0.822%
Kelly -2.19%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.60

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
58.69%61.62%61.67%63.56%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.441.531.531.6069.44%65.54%65.36%62.50%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Athletic Bilbao (Visiteur)

Prévision 18.18%5.50cote équitable
EV +4.56%
Avantage +0.793%
Kelly +0.960%
Croissance +0.044%

avec la cote maximale 5.75

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
16.58%18.21%18.17%19.84%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
4.505.235.255.7522.22%19.14%19.05%17.39%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 20.14%4.97cote équitable
EV -1.32%
Avantage -0.270%
Kelly -0.339%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 4.90

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
19.39%20.17%20.16%22.54%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.754.634.604.9026.67%21.60%21.74%20.41%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (59 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
theScore Bet1.50I 66.67%NM 63.56%EV -7.48%E -4.99%K -14.97%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.58%EV +4.56%E +0.793%K +0.960%G +0.044%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.86%EV -3.34%E -0.695%K -0.878%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-23 18:29
Unibet (SE)1.55I 64.52%NM 62.77%EV -4.40%E -2.84%K -8.00%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.37%EV +1.83%E +0.327%K +0.398%G +0.007%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.86%EV -1.32%E -0.270%K -0.339%G +0.000%2.8%2026-05-23 18:39
Svenska Spel1.55I 64.52%NM 62.77%EV -4.40%E -2.84%K -8.00%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.37%EV +1.83%E +0.327%K +0.398%G +0.007%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.86%EV -1.32%E -0.270%K -0.339%G +0.000%2.8%2026-05-23 18:39
ATG (SE)1.55I 64.52%NM 62.77%EV -4.40%E -2.84%K -8.00%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.37%EV +1.83%E +0.327%K +0.398%G +0.007%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.86%EV -1.32%E -0.270%K -0.339%G +0.000%2.8%2026-05-23 18:39
Unibet (NL)1.51I 66.23%NM 63.38%EV -6.87%E -4.55%K -13.46%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.09%EV +1.83%E +0.327%K +0.398%G +0.007%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.53%EV -1.32%E -0.270%K -0.339%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-23 18:39
Grosvenor1.51I 66.23%NM 62.58%EV -6.87%E -4.55%K -13.46%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.87%EV +1.83%E +0.327%K +0.398%G +0.007%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.54%EV -7.36%E -1.60%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-23 18:39
Casumo1.51I 66.23%NM 62.58%EV -6.87%E -4.55%K -13.46%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.87%EV +1.83%E +0.327%K +0.398%G +0.007%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.54%EV -7.36%E -1.60%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-23 18:39
Bally Bet1.51I 66.23%NM 62.58%EV -6.87%E -4.55%K -13.46%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.87%EV +1.83%E +0.327%K +0.398%G +0.007%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.54%EV -7.36%E -1.60%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-23 18:37
betPARX1.51I 66.23%NM 62.58%EV -6.87%E -4.55%K -13.46%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.87%EV +1.83%E +0.327%K +0.398%G +0.007%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.54%EV -7.36%E -1.60%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-23 18:39
Coolbet1.57I 63.69%NM 61.75%EV -3.17%E -2.02%K -5.55%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.63%EV +0.014%E +0.003%K +0.003%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.63%EV -5.35%E -1.14%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-23 18:38
Fanatics1.53I 65.36%NM 62.49%EV -5.63%E -3.68%K -10.63%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.38%EV +0.014%E +0.003%K +0.003%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.13%EV -4.34%E -0.915%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-23 18:20
Unibet (FR)1.50I 66.67%NM 63.34%EV -7.48%E -4.99%K -14.97%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.27%EV +0.014%E +0.003%K +0.003%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.39%EV -1.32%E -0.270%K -0.339%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-23 18:39
Bet Victor1.53I 65.36%NM 62.08%EV -5.63%E -3.68%K -10.63%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.27%EV +0.014%E +0.003%K +0.003%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.65%EV -7.36%E -1.60%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-23 18:49
betfred_uk1.50I 66.67%NM 62.55%EV -7.48%E -4.99%K -14.97%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.06%EV +0.014%E +0.003%K +0.003%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -7.36%E -1.60%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-23 17:59
Bet Right1.50I 66.67%NM 62.26%EV -7.48%E -4.99%K -14.97%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV +0.014%E +0.003%K +0.003%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -9.38%E -2.08%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-23 18:29
Betr (AU)1.50I 66.67%NM 62.26%EV -7.48%E -4.99%K -14.97%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV +0.014%E +0.003%K +0.003%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -9.38%E -2.08%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-23 18:29
FanDuel1.54I 64.94%NM 61.73%EV -5.02%E -3.26%K -9.29%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.60%EV -1.80%E -0.334%K -0.410%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.67%EV -7.36%E -1.60%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-23 18:29
LiveScore Bet1.47I 68.03%NM 62.54%EV -9.33%E -6.35%K -19.86%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.03%EV -1.80%E -0.334%K -0.410%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -9.38%E -2.08%K -2.68%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-23 18:39
Virgin Bet1.47I 68.03%NM 62.54%EV -9.33%E -6.35%K -19.86%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.03%EV -1.80%E -0.334%K -0.410%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -9.38%E -2.08%K -2.68%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-23 18:39
Marathon Bet1.57I 63.69%NM 61.71%EV -3.17%E -2.02%K -5.55%G +0.000%5.35I 18.69%NM 18.11%EV -2.71%E -0.507%K -0.624%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.18%EV -3.34%E -0.695%K -0.878%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-23 18:28
BetOnline.ag1.56I 64.10%NM 62.07%EV -3.78%E -2.43%K -6.76%G +0.000%5.33I 18.76%NM 18.17%EV -3.08%E -0.577%K -0.711%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.76%EV -1.32%E -0.270%K -0.339%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-23 18:20
LowVig.ag1.56I 64.10%NM 62.07%EV -3.78%E -2.43%K -6.76%G +0.000%5.33I 18.76%NM 18.17%EV -3.08%E -0.577%K -0.711%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.76%EV -1.32%E -0.270%K -0.339%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-23 18:20
Pinnacle1.57I 63.69%NM 61.63%EV -3.17%E -2.02%K -5.55%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.26%EV -3.62%E -0.684%K -0.843%G +0.000%4.81I 20.79%NM 20.12%EV -3.14%E -0.652%K -0.823%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-23 18:40
Unibet1.49I 67.11%NM 61.74%EV -8.10%E -5.44%K -16.53%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.36%EV -3.62%E -0.684%K -0.843%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.91%EV -11.39%E -2.59%K -3.35%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-23 18:39
LeoVegas (SE)1.49I 67.11%NM 61.74%EV -8.10%E -5.44%K -16.53%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.36%EV -3.62%E -0.684%K -0.843%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.91%EV -11.39%E -2.59%K -3.35%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-23 18:39
TABtouch1.49I 67.11%NM 61.74%EV -8.10%E -5.44%K -16.53%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.36%EV -3.62%E -0.684%K -0.843%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.91%EV -11.39%E -2.59%K -3.35%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-23 18:39
PMU (FR)1.53I 65.36%NM 62.36%EV -5.63%E -3.68%K -10.63%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.17%EV -4.53%E -0.863%K -1.07%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.47%EV -1.32%E -0.270%K -0.339%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-23 18:39
DraftKings1.54I 64.94%NM 61.95%EV -5.02%E -3.26%K -9.29%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.17%EV -4.53%E -0.863%K -1.07%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.88%EV -3.34%E -0.695%K -0.878%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-23 18:19
Everygame1.53I 65.36%NM 61.98%EV -5.63%E -3.68%K -10.63%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.06%EV -4.53%E -0.863%K -1.07%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.96%EV -4.34%E -0.915%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-23 18:19
Betclic (FR)1.51I 66.23%NM 62.41%EV -6.87%E -4.55%K -13.46%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.95%EV -4.53%E -0.863%K -1.07%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.63%EV -3.34%E -0.695%K -0.878%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-23 18:48
BetUS1.56I 64.10%NM 61.41%EV -3.78%E -2.43%K -6.76%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.42%EV -5.44%E -1.05%K -1.30%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -4.34%E -0.915%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-23 18:29
Codere (IT)1.55I 64.52%NM 61.43%EV -4.40%E -2.84%K -8.00%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.31%EV -5.44%E -1.05%K -1.30%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.26%EV -5.35%E -1.14%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-23 18:49
Tipico (DE)1.52I 65.79%NM 62.15%EV -6.25%E -4.11%K -12.02%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.17%EV -5.44%E -1.05%K -1.30%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.68%EV -3.34%E -0.695%K -0.878%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-23 18:20
BetRivers1.48I 67.57%NM 61.54%EV -8.72%E -5.89%K -18.16%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.52%EV -5.44%E -1.05%K -1.30%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.94%EV -12.40%E -2.85%K -3.70%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-23 18:39
1xBet1.60I 62.50%NM 60.52%EV -1.32%E -0.822%K -2.19%G +0.000%5.18I 19.31%NM 18.69%EV -5.80%E -1.12%K -1.39%G +0.000%4.66I 21.46%NM 20.78%EV -6.16%E -1.32%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-23 18:49
Bovada1.55I 64.52%NM 61.32%EV -4.40%E -2.84%K -8.00%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 18.46%EV -6.35%E -1.23%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.22%EV -5.35%E -1.14%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-23 18:19
NetBet (FR)1.51I 66.23%NM 61.56%EV -6.87%E -4.55%K -13.46%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.23%EV -7.26%E -1.42%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV -7.36%E -1.60%K -2.05%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-23 18:49
LeoVegas1.45I 68.97%NM 61.67%EV -10.57%E -7.29%K -23.48%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.53%EV -7.26%E -1.42%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.80%EV -13.41%E -3.12%K -4.06%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-23 18:39
Coral1.55I 64.52%NM 61.24%EV -4.40%E -2.84%K -8.00%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.98%EV -9.08%E -1.82%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.78%EV -3.34%E -0.695%K -0.878%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-23 18:20
Betway1.55I 64.52%NM 61.11%EV -4.40%E -2.84%K -8.00%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.94%EV -9.08%E -1.82%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.94%EV -4.34%E -0.915%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-23 18:20
BetMGM1.54I 64.94%NM 61.27%EV -5.02%E -3.26%K -9.29%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.87%EV -9.08%E -1.82%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.86%EV -4.34%E -0.915%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-23 18:19
Unibet (UK)1.55I 64.52%NM 60.72%EV -4.40%E -2.84%K -8.00%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.82%EV -9.08%E -1.82%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.46%EV -7.36%E -1.60%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-23 18:40
Ladbrokes (UK)1.55I 64.52%NM 60.72%EV -4.40%E -2.84%K -8.00%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.82%EV -9.08%E -1.82%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.46%EV -7.36%E -1.60%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-23 18:20
William Hill1.57I 63.69%NM 59.85%EV -3.17%E -2.02%K -5.55%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.79%EV -9.08%E -1.82%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.36%EV -11.39%E -2.59%K -3.35%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-23 18:49
Winamax (DE)1.52I 65.79%NM 61.70%EV -6.25%E -4.11%K -12.02%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.76%EV -9.08%E -1.82%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.54%EV -3.34%E -0.695%K -0.878%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-23 18:49
Neds1.55I 64.52%NM 60.44%EV -4.40%E -2.84%K -8.00%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.74%EV -9.08%E -1.82%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.82%EV -9.38%E -2.08%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-23 18:19
Ladbrokes (AU)1.55I 64.52%NM 60.44%EV -4.40%E -2.84%K -8.00%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.74%EV -9.08%E -1.82%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.82%EV -9.38%E -2.08%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-23 18:20
TAB1.55I 64.52%NM 60.44%EV -4.40%E -2.84%K -8.00%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.74%EV -9.08%E -1.82%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.82%EV -9.38%E -2.08%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-23 18:09
SportsBet1.53I 65.36%NM 61.03%EV -5.63%E -3.68%K -10.63%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.67%EV -9.08%E -1.82%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.30%EV -7.36%E -1.60%K -2.05%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-23 18:29
Sky Bet1.50I 66.67%NM 61.89%EV -7.48%E -4.99%K -14.97%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -9.08%E -1.82%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.54%EV -4.34%E -0.915%K -1.16%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-23 18:10
PlayUp1.52I 65.79%NM 60.63%EV -6.25%E -4.11%K -12.02%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -9.08%E -1.82%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.94%EV -11.39%E -2.59%K -3.35%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-23 18:29
Paddy Power1.50I 66.67%NM 61.22%EV -7.48%E -4.99%K -14.97%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.37%EV -9.08%E -1.82%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.41%EV -9.38%E -2.08%K -2.68%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-23 18:09
Fliff1.49I 67.11%NM 61.38%EV -8.10%E -5.44%K -16.53%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.29%EV -9.08%E -1.82%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.32%EV -9.38%E -2.08%K -2.68%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-23 18:20
NordicBet1.58I 63.29%NM 60.41%EV -2.55%E -1.61%K -4.40%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.28%EV -9.99%E -2.02%K -2.53%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.31%EV -5.35%E -1.14%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-23 18:19
Betsson1.58I 63.29%NM 60.41%EV -2.55%E -1.61%K -4.40%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.28%EV -9.99%E -2.02%K -2.53%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.31%EV -5.35%E -1.14%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-23 18:19
Winamax (FR)1.50I 66.67%NM 61.29%EV -7.48%E -4.99%K -14.97%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.15%EV -12.71%E -2.65%K -3.35%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.56%EV -5.35%E -1.14%K -1.45%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-23 18:20
Mr Green (SE)1.53I 65.36%NM 60.01%EV -5.63%E -3.68%K -10.63%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.13%EV -12.71%E -2.65%K -3.35%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.87%EV -11.39%E -2.59%K -3.35%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-23 18:49
BoyleSports1.50I 66.67%NM 59.53%EV -7.48%E -4.99%K -14.97%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.84%EV -18.17%E -4.04%K -5.19%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.62%EV -12.80%E -2.96%K -3.84%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-23 18:19
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.44I 69.44%NM 58.69%EV -11.18%E -7.77%K -25.42%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 18.78%EV -18.17%E -4.04%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.54%EV -24.48%E -6.53%K -8.90%G +0.000%18.3%2026-05-23 18:29
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.59I 62.89%NM 62.55%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.15%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.30%0.5%2026-05-23 18:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.59I 62.89%NM 62.55%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.15%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.30%0.5%2026-05-23 18:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.59I 62.89%NM 62.55%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.15%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.30%0.5%2026-05-23 18:20
Matchbook1.59I 62.89%NM 62.55%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.15%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.30%0.5%2026-05-23 18:29
Smarkets1.58I 63.29%NM 62.25%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.26%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.49%1.7%2026-05-23 18:49
Kalshi1.56I 64.10%NM 62.77%5.88I 17.01%NM 16.65%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.57%2.1%2026-05-23 18:49