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Real Betis v Real Madrid

2026-09-04 19:00 UTC — La Liga - Spain

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Real Betis (Local)

Prediction 20.57%4.86fair odd
EV -3.33%
Edge -0.709%
Kelly -0.901%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.25%20.96%20.63%22.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.384.454.7025.00%22.83%22.47%21.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Real Madrid (Visit)

Prediction 56.56%1.77fair odd
EV +2.38%
Edge +1.32%
Kelly +2.94%
Growth +0.070%

assuming max odds 1.81

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.05%56.34%56.57%57.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.561.671.671.8164.10%59.96%59.88%55.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.87%4.37fair odd
EV -1.67%
Edge -0.388%
Kelly -0.505%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.69%22.71%22.80%23.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.074.004.3026.32%24.56%25.00%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Real Betis (Local): 20.57%; Real Madrid (Visit): 56.56%; Draw: 22.87%. For Real Madrid (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.77. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 1.81, producing a positive expected value of +2.38%.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯4.54I 22.03%NM 21.70%EV -6.62%E -1.46%K -1.87%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 54.44%EV +2.38%E +1.32%K +2.94%G +0.070%4.13I 24.21%NM 23.86%EV -5.55%E -1.34%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.5%2026-08-29 08:50
Betsson🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.87%EV -15.67%E -3.82%K -5.06%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.53%EV -2.71%E -1.58%K -3.76%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.60%EV -5.10%E -1.23%K -1.62%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-29 09:10
NordicBet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.87%EV -15.67%E -3.82%K -5.06%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.53%EV -2.71%E -1.58%K -3.76%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.60%EV -5.10%E -1.23%K -1.62%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-29 09:10
betfred_uk🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -7.45%E -1.65%K -2.13%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.47%EV -3.84%E -2.26%K -5.49%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -8.53%E -2.13%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-29 09:15
Betr (AU)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -7.45%E -1.65%K -2.13%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.47%EV -3.84%E -2.26%K -5.49%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -8.53%E -2.13%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-29 09:15
PlayUp🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -17.73%E -4.43%K -5.91%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -3.84%E -2.26%K -5.49%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -8.53%E -2.13%K -2.84%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-29 09:10
Codere (IT)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -3.33%E -0.709%K -0.901%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.90%EV -4.97%E -2.96%K -7.31%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.76%EV -3.95%E -0.941%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-29 09:15
Bet Right🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.13%EV -9.50%E -2.16%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.34%EV -4.97%E -2.96%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.54%EV -9.67%E -2.45%K -3.28%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-29 09:15
LeoVegas🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.39%EV -5.39%E -1.17%K -1.50%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.16%EV -5.54%E -3.32%K -8.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -8.53%E -2.13%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-29 09:10
SportsBet🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.02%EV -7.45%E -1.65%K -2.13%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.98%EV -6.10%E -3.68%K -9.25%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.00%EV -1.67%E -0.388%K -0.505%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-29 09:00
Unibet (UK)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.25%EV -5.39%E -1.17%K -1.50%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.46%EV -6.67%E -4.04%K -10.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -8.53%E -2.13%K -2.84%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-29 09:10
Betclic (FR)🎯4.45I 22.47%NM 20.59%EV -8.48%E -1.90%K -2.46%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 56.21%EV -7.80%E -4.79%K -12.38%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.20%EV -9.67%E -2.45%K -3.28%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-29 09:10
FanDuel🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -7.45%E -1.65%K -2.13%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.58%EV -8.37%E -5.16%K -13.49%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.69%EV -1.67%E -0.388%K -0.505%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-29 09:01
Paddy Power🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.26%EV -10.94%E -2.53%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.82%EV -8.37%E -5.16%K -13.49%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -3.95%E -0.941%K -1.24%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-29 09:00
Sky Bet🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.26%EV -10.94%E -2.53%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.82%EV -8.37%E -5.16%K -13.49%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -3.95%E -0.941%K -1.24%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-29 09:01
Unibet (FR)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 20.95%EV -11.56%E -2.69%K -3.50%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 55.95%EV -8.93%E -5.55%K -14.64%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.10%EV -10.81%E -2.77%K -3.73%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-29 09:10
Winamax (FR)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 21.66%EV -17.73%E -4.43%K -5.91%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 55.54%EV -11.76%E -7.54%K -21.00%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.80%EV -13.10%E -3.45%K -4.68%G +0.000%15.4%2026-08-29 09:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎4.70I 21.28%NM 20.93%1.72I 58.14%NM 57.20%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.86%1.6%2026-08-29 09:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎4.70I 21.28%NM 20.93%1.72I 58.14%NM 57.20%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.86%1.6%2026-08-29 09:10
Kalshi◎4.76I 21.01%NM 20.56%1.69I 59.17%NM 57.92%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.51%2.2%2026-08-29 09:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎4.60I 21.74%NM 21.19%1.72I 58.14%NM 56.66%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.15%2.6%2026-08-29 09:05
Smarkets◎4.50I 22.22%NM 21.45%1.72I 58.14%NM 56.11%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.44%3.6%2026-08-29 09:05
Arbitrage (2 combinations) +0.22%Codere (IT) 4.70 (21.3%) / 1xBet 1.81 (55.4%) / SportsBet 4.30 (23.3%)Show all 2 combinations
Real Betis (Local)Real Madrid (Visit)DrawMargin
Codere (IT)🎯 4.70 (21.3%)1xBet🎯 1.81 (55.4%)SportsBet🎯 4.30 (23.3%)+0.219%
Codere (IT)🎯 4.70 (21.3%)1xBet🎯 1.81 (55.4%)FanDuel🎯 4.30 (23.3%)+0.219%