La escuela de los momios

Mallorca v Real Madrid

Inicio: 2026-04-04 14:15 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Mallorca (Local)

Predicción 17.37%5.76momio equitativo
EV +8.57%
Ventaja +1.37%
Kelly +1.63%
Crecimiento +0.140%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.25

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
15.46%17.43%17.38%19.42%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.755.515.506.2521.05%18.14%18.18%16.00%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Real Madrid (Visitante)

Predicción 61.40%1.63momio equitativo
EV -1.77%
Ventaja -1.10%
Kelly -2.94%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
58.79%61.32%61.38%64.41%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.431.531.531.6069.93%65.49%65.36%62.50%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 21.23%4.71momio equitativo
EV +1.92%
Ventaja +0.400%
Kelly +0.505%
Crecimiento +0.010%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.06%21.25%21.25%22.97%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.754.454.504.8026.67%22.48%22.22%20.83%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet (NL)6.25I 16.00%NM 15.46%EV +8.57%E +1.37%K +1.63%G +0.140%1.50I 66.67%NM 64.41%EV -7.91%E -5.27%K -15.81%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.13%EV +1.92%E +0.400%K +0.505%G +0.010%3.5%2026-04-04 14:09
ATG (SE)6.10I 16.39%NM 16.01%EV +5.96%E +0.978%K +1.17%G +0.070%1.54I 64.94%NM 63.42%EV -5.45%E -3.54%K -10.09%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.56%EV +0.857%E +0.180%K +0.229%G +0.002%2.4%2026-04-04 14:09
Unibet (SE)6.10I 16.39%NM 15.81%EV +5.96%E +0.978%K +1.17%G +0.070%1.51I 66.23%NM 63.88%EV -7.29%E -4.83%K -14.30%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.31%EV +0.857%E +0.180%K +0.229%G +0.002%3.7%2026-04-04 14:09
Svenska Spel6.10I 16.39%NM 15.81%EV +5.96%E +0.978%K +1.17%G +0.070%1.51I 66.23%NM 63.88%EV -7.29%E -4.83%K -14.30%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.31%EV +0.857%E +0.180%K +0.229%G +0.002%3.7%2026-04-04 14:09
Grosvenor6.00I 16.67%NM 15.79%EV +4.23%E +0.705%K +0.845%G +0.036%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.60%EV -8.52%E -5.72%K -17.39%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.60%EV -2.33%E -0.506%K -0.647%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-04 14:09
Casumo6.00I 16.67%NM 15.79%EV +4.23%E +0.705%K +0.845%G +0.036%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.60%EV -8.52%E -5.72%K -17.39%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.60%EV -2.33%E -0.506%K -0.647%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-04 14:09
betPARX6.00I 16.67%NM 15.79%EV +4.23%E +0.705%K +0.845%G +0.036%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.60%EV -8.52%E -5.72%K -17.39%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.60%EV -2.33%E -0.506%K -0.647%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-04 14:09
Bally Bet6.00I 16.67%NM 15.79%EV +4.23%E +0.705%K +0.845%G +0.036%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.60%EV -8.52%E -5.72%K -17.39%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.60%EV -2.33%E -0.506%K -0.647%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-04 14:10
LeoVegas (SE)6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV +4.23%E +0.705%K +0.845%G +0.036%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.92%EV -9.75%E -6.63%K -20.74%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.43%EV -2.33%E -0.506%K -0.647%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-04 14:09
Unibet6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV +4.23%E +0.705%K +0.845%G +0.036%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.47%EV -9.13%E -6.17%K -19.03%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%EV -4.45%E -0.989%K -1.27%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-04 14:00
TABtouch6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV +4.23%E +0.705%K +0.845%G +0.036%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.47%EV -9.13%E -6.17%K -19.03%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%EV -4.45%E -0.989%K -1.27%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-04 14:04
BetRivers6.00I 16.67%NM 15.52%EV +4.23%E +0.705%K +0.845%G +0.036%1.45I 68.97%NM 64.23%EV -10.98%E -7.57%K -24.39%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.25%EV -2.33%E -0.506%K -0.647%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-04 14:09
1xBet5.95I 16.81%NM 16.29%EV +3.36%E +0.565%K +0.679%G +0.023%1.57I 63.69%NM 61.73%EV -3.61%E -2.30%K -6.33%G +0.000%4.41I 22.68%NM 21.98%EV -6.36%E -1.44%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-04 14:09
FanDuel5.80I 17.24%NM 16.44%EV +0.753%E +0.130%K +0.157%G +0.001%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.90%EV -5.45%E -3.54%K -10.09%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.66%EV -6.57%E -1.49%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-04 14:09
PMU (FR)5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV +0.753%E +0.130%K +0.157%G +0.001%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.52%EV -7.91%E -5.27%K -15.81%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.06%EV +0.857%E +0.180%K +0.229%G +0.002%5.0%2026-04-04 14:09
LeoVegas5.80I 17.24%NM 15.76%EV +0.753%E +0.130%K +0.157%G +0.001%1.43I 69.93%NM 63.93%EV -12.20%E -8.53%K -28.38%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.31%EV -4.45%E -0.989%K -1.27%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-04 14:09
Marathon Bet5.75I 17.39%NM 16.88%EV -0.115%E -0.020%K -0.024%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 62.24%EV -4.22%E -2.71%K -7.54%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.88%EV -1.27%E -0.272%K -0.347%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-04 14:04
LowVig.ag5.75I 17.39%NM 16.77%EV -0.115%E -0.020%K -0.024%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.81%EV -4.22%E -2.71%K -7.54%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.43%EV -4.45%E -0.989%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-04 14:04
BetOnline.ag5.75I 17.39%NM 16.77%EV -0.115%E -0.020%K -0.024%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.81%EV -4.22%E -2.71%K -7.54%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.43%EV -4.45%E -0.989%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-04 14:05
Tipico (DE)5.70I 17.54%NM 16.54%EV -0.984%E -0.173%K -0.209%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.03%EV -6.68%E -4.39%K -12.84%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -6.57%E -1.49%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-04 13:38
Coolbet5.60I 17.86%NM 17.34%EV -2.72%E -0.486%K -0.592%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 61.08%EV -2.38%E -1.50%K -4.04%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.58%EV -4.45%E -0.989%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-04 13:01
Codere (IT)5.60I 17.86%NM 17.00%EV -2.72%E -0.486%K -0.592%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.83%EV -5.45%E -3.54%K -10.09%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.16%EV -4.45%E -0.989%K -1.27%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-04 13:45
Virgin Bet5.60I 17.86%NM 16.44%EV -2.72%E -0.486%K -0.592%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 62.63%EV -9.75%E -6.63%K -20.74%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%EV -6.57%E -1.49%K -1.93%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-04 14:10
LiveScore Bet5.60I 17.86%NM 16.44%EV -2.72%E -0.486%K -0.592%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 62.63%EV -9.75%E -6.63%K -20.74%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%EV -6.57%E -1.49%K -1.93%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-04 14:09
Pinnacle5.56I 17.99%NM 17.45%EV -3.42%E -0.614%K -0.749%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 61.41%EV -2.99%E -1.90%K -5.16%G +0.000%4.59I 21.79%NM 21.14%EV -2.54%E -0.553%K -0.708%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-04 14:10
theScore Bet5.50I 18.18%NM 17.40%EV -4.46%E -0.811%K -0.991%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.34%EV -4.22%E -2.71%K -7.54%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.26%EV -4.45%E -0.989%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-04 13:39
DraftKings5.50I 18.18%NM 17.40%EV -4.46%E -0.811%K -0.991%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.34%EV -4.22%E -2.71%K -7.54%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.26%EV -4.45%E -0.989%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-04 14:04
Unibet (UK)5.50I 18.18%NM 17.26%EV -4.46%E -0.811%K -0.991%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.64%EV -5.45%E -3.54%K -10.09%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.10%EV -4.45%E -0.989%K -1.27%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-04 13:39
Everygame5.50I 18.18%NM 17.25%EV -4.46%E -0.811%K -0.991%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.20%EV -4.84%E -3.12%K -8.79%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.56%EV -6.57%E -1.49%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-04 13:39
Bet Victor5.50I 18.18%NM 17.19%EV -4.46%E -0.811%K -0.991%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.80%EV -6.06%E -3.96%K -11.44%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.01%EV -4.45%E -0.989%K -1.27%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-04 14:09
TAB5.50I 18.18%NM 17.12%EV -4.46%E -0.811%K -0.991%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.73%EV -4.84%E -3.12%K -8.79%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.15%EV -9.76%E -2.30%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 14:04
SportsBet5.50I 18.18%NM 17.11%EV -4.46%E -0.811%K -0.991%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.50%EV -6.06%E -3.96%K -11.44%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.39%EV -6.57%E -1.49%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-04 13:30
Sky Bet5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV -4.46%E -0.811%K -0.991%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.26%EV -7.91%E -5.27%K -15.81%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -4.45%E -0.989%K -1.27%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-03 14:15
Paddy Power5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -4.46%E -0.811%K -0.991%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -7.91%E -5.27%K -15.81%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -10.82%E -2.58%K -3.38%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-04 14:10
BetUS5.45I 18.35%NM 17.49%EV -5.33%E -0.977%K -1.20%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.09%EV -4.22%E -2.71%K -7.54%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.42%EV -5.51%E -1.24%K -1.60%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-04 14:10
Betsson5.40I 18.52%NM 17.76%EV -6.20%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.69%EV -2.99%E -1.90%K -5.16%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.55%EV -5.51%E -1.24%K -1.60%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-04 07:30
NordicBet5.40I 18.52%NM 17.76%EV -6.20%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.69%EV -2.99%E -1.90%K -5.16%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.55%EV -5.51%E -1.24%K -1.60%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-04 14:09
Betclic (FR)5.40I 18.52%NM 17.38%EV -6.20%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 61.76%EV -6.68%E -4.39%K -12.84%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.86%EV -4.45%E -0.989%K -1.27%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-04 13:54
Unibet (FR)5.40I 18.52%NM 17.16%EV -6.20%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.78%EV -7.91%E -5.27%K -15.81%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.06%EV -6.57%E -1.49%K -1.93%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-04 14:09
Fliff5.35I 18.69%NM 17.07%EV -7.06%E -1.32%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 61.70%EV -9.13%E -6.17%K -19.03%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.24%EV -8.70%E -2.02%K -2.64%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-04 14:10
Fanatics5.25I 19.05%NM 17.90%EV -8.80%E -1.68%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.24%EV -4.22%E -2.71%K -7.54%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.86%EV -8.70%E -2.02%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-04 13:01
Betr (AU)5.25I 19.05%NM 17.79%EV -8.80%E -1.68%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.24%EV -4.84%E -3.12%K -8.79%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.97%EV -9.76%E -2.30%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 14:09
Winamax (DE)5.20I 19.23%NM 18.01%EV -9.67%E -1.86%K -2.30%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 61.62%EV -6.68%E -4.39%K -12.84%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.36%EV -2.33%E -0.506%K -0.647%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-04 13:40
Ladbrokes (AU)5.20I 19.23%NM 18.00%EV -9.67%E -1.86%K -2.30%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.19%EV -6.06%E -3.96%K -11.44%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.80%EV -4.45%E -0.989%K -1.27%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-04 14:09
NetBet (FR)5.20I 19.23%NM 17.69%EV -9.67%E -1.86%K -2.30%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 60.92%EV -7.29%E -4.83%K -14.30%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.39%EV -8.70%E -2.02%K -2.64%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-04 13:30
Winamax (FR)5.10I 19.61%NM 18.07%EV -11.41%E -2.24%K -2.78%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.45%EV -7.91%E -5.27%K -15.81%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -4.45%E -0.989%K -1.27%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-04 13:39
Coral5.00I 20.00%NM 19.01%EV -13.14%E -2.63%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.40%EV -1.77%E -1.10%K -2.94%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.60%EV -6.57%E -1.49%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-04 14:09
BetMGM5.00I 20.00%NM 18.88%EV -13.14%E -2.63%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.14%EV -3.61%E -2.30%K -6.33%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.98%EV -4.45%E -0.989%K -1.27%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-04 14:09
Betway5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -13.14%E -2.63%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.79%EV -1.77%E -1.10%K -2.94%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -10.82%E -2.58%K -3.38%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-04 13:19
Bet Right5.00I 20.00%NM 18.53%EV -13.14%E -2.63%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.40%EV -4.22%E -2.71%K -7.54%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.06%EV -10.82%E -2.58%K -3.38%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-04 14:09
PlayUp5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%EV -13.14%E -2.63%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.71%EV -4.84%E -3.12%K -8.79%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.78%EV -9.76%E -2.30%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-04 14:09
William Hill5.00I 20.00%NM 18.46%EV -13.14%E -2.63%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.56%EV -4.84%E -3.12%K -8.79%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.98%EV -10.82%E -2.58%K -3.38%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-04 14:09
Mr Green (SE)5.00I 20.00%NM 18.32%EV -13.14%E -2.63%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 59.87%EV -6.06%E -3.96%K -11.44%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.81%EV -10.82%E -2.58%K -3.38%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-04 14:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)5.00I 20.00%NM 17.22%EV -13.14%E -2.63%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 59.81%EV -11.59%E -8.05%K -26.34%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.97%EV -20.38%E -5.43%K -7.41%G +0.000%16.1%2026-04-04 14:09
Ladbrokes (UK)4.80I 20.83%NM 19.42%EV -16.62%E -3.46%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.39%EV -3.61%E -2.30%K -6.33%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.19%EV -6.57%E -1.49%K -1.93%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-04 14:09
Neds4.80I 20.83%NM 19.42%EV -16.62%E -3.46%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.39%EV -3.61%E -2.30%K -6.33%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.19%EV -6.57%E -1.49%K -1.93%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-04 14:09
BoyleSports4.75I 21.05%NM 18.88%EV -17.49%E -3.68%K -4.66%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.78%EV -7.91%E -5.27%K -15.81%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.35%EV -10.82%E -2.58%K -3.38%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-04 14:10
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)6.20I 16.13%NM 16.01%1.59I 62.89%NM 62.42%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.57%0.8%2026-04-04 14:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)6.20I 16.13%NM 16.01%1.59I 62.89%NM 62.42%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.57%0.8%2026-04-04 14:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)6.20I 16.13%NM 16.01%1.59I 62.89%NM 62.42%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.57%0.8%2026-04-04 14:09
Matchbook6.20I 16.13%NM 16.01%1.59I 62.89%NM 62.42%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.57%0.8%2026-04-04 14:10
Kalshi6.25I 16.00%NM 15.86%1.59I 62.89%NM 62.35%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.79%0.9%2026-04-04 13:54
Smarkets6.20I 16.13%NM 15.93%1.59I 62.89%NM 62.12%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.95%1.2%2026-04-04 14:09