The School of Odds
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Málaga v Athletic Bilbao

2026-11-28 15:15 UTC — La Liga - Spain

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Málaga (Local)

Prediction 20.77%4.81fair odd
EV +1.36%
Edge +0.279%
Kelly +0.351%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 4.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.77%20.77%20.77%21.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.484.504.8825.00%22.31%22.22%20.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Athletic Bilbao (Visit)

Prediction 54.66%1.83fair odd
EV -2.71%
Edge -1.52%
Kelly -3.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.62%54.67%54.66%55.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.521.701.731.7865.79%58.70%57.97%56.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.57%4.07fair odd
EV -0.987%
Edge -0.245%
Kelly -0.326%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.03

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.19%24.57%24.57%25.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.753.774.0328.99%26.65%26.49%24.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Málaga (Local): 20.77%; Athletic Bilbao (Visit): 54.66%; Draw: 24.57%. For Málaga (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.81. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 4.88, producing a positive expected value of +1.36%.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯4.88I 20.49%NM 20.19%EV +1.36%E +0.279%K +0.351%G +0.005%1.78I 56.18%NM 55.36%EV -2.71%E -1.52%K -3.47%G +0.000%4.03I 24.81%NM 24.45%EV -0.987%E -0.245%K -0.326%G +0.000%1.5%2026-11-09 07:45
Marathon Bet🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -1.34%E -0.282%K -0.357%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.39%EV -5.44%E -3.14%K -7.45%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.44%EV -3.69%E -0.941%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.4%2026-11-09 08:54
betfred_uk🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -4.45%E -0.968%K -1.24%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.42%EV -5.44%E -3.14%K -7.45%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%EV -7.87%E -2.10%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-09 07:45
Betr (AU)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -6.53%E -1.45%K -1.87%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.85%EV -5.98%E -3.48%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.19%EV -4.18%E -1.07%K -1.44%G +0.000%6.0%2026-11-09 07:45
Tipico (DE)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -6.53%E -1.45%K -1.87%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.85%EV -5.98%E -3.48%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.19%EV -4.18%E -1.07%K -1.44%G +0.000%6.0%2026-11-09 07:45
Unibet (UK)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -6.53%E -1.45%K -1.87%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.61%EV -7.08%E -4.16%K -10.11%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -7.87%E -2.10%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.7%2026-11-09 08:45
William Hill🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.61%EV -6.53%E -1.45%K -1.87%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -5.44%E -3.14%K -7.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -11.55%E -3.21%K -4.44%G +0.000%7.8%2026-11-09 07:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.61%EV -6.53%E -1.45%K -1.87%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -5.44%E -3.14%K -7.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -11.55%E -3.21%K -4.44%G +0.000%7.8%2026-11-09 07:45
Pinnacle🎯4.47I 22.37%NM 21.31%EV -7.15%E -1.60%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.82%EV -3.25%E -1.84%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 24.87%EV -5.90%E -1.54%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.0%2026-11-09 08:40
Bovada🎯4.45I 22.47%NM 21.28%EV -7.57%E -1.70%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.80%EV -3.80%E -2.16%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.92%EV -6.64%E -1.75%K -2.37%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-09 16:20
Winamax (DE)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%EV -8.61%E -1.96%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 54.83%EV -8.17%E -4.86%K -12.02%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.24%EV -6.64%E -1.75%K -2.37%G +0.000%8.6%2026-11-09 08:45
LeoVegas🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.80%EV -8.61%E -1.96%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 54.47%EV -8.17%E -4.86%K -12.02%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.73%EV -9.09%E -2.46%K -3.37%G +0.000%9.3%2026-11-09 08:45
Unibet (FR)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 19.77%EV -10.68%E -2.48%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 55.94%EV -16.92%E -11.13%K -32.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.29%EV -14.01%E -4.00%K -5.60%G +0.000%17.6%2026-11-09 08:45
Winamax (FR)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 21.46%EV -16.92%E -4.23%K -5.64%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 53.65%EV -12.54%E -7.84%K -20.91%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 24.88%EV -15.24%E -4.42%K -6.22%G +0.000%16.5%2026-11-09 08:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎4.10I 24.39%NM 20.96%1.61I 62.11%NM 53.38%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.66%16.4%2026-11-09 08:45

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