The School of Odds
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Getafe v Atlético Madrid

2026-11-22 20:00 UTC — La Liga - Spain

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Getafe (Local)

Prediction 16.99%5.89fair odd
EV -0.616%
Edge -0.105%
Kelly -0.127%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.26%16.98%17.01%18.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.605.435.505.8521.74%18.41%18.18%17.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Atlético Madrid (Visit)

Prediction 58.13%1.72fair odd
EV -1.18%
Edge -0.693%
Kelly -1.68%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.46%58.12%58.12%59.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.521.611.611.7065.79%62.00%62.11%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.88%4.02fair odd
EV -3.46%
Edge -0.893%
Kelly -1.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.27%24.90%24.87%25.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.763.803.8828.99%26.60%26.32%25.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Getafe (Local): 16.99%; Atlético Madrid (Visit): 58.13%; Draw: 24.88%. For Getafe (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.89. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 5.85, with an expected value of -0.616%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯5.85I 17.09%NM 16.81%EV -0.616%E -0.105%K -0.127%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 57.85%EV -1.18%E -0.693%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 25.34%EV -3.46%E -0.893%K -1.20%G +0.000%1.7%2026-11-04 16:09
Tipico (DE)🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 16.26%EV -1.47%E -0.253%K -0.305%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.93%EV -6.99%E -4.37%K -11.65%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.81%EV -5.45%E -1.44%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.1%2026-11-04 14:34
Betsson🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.43%EV -2.31%E -0.403%K -0.487%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.04%EV -6.99%E -4.37%K -11.65%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.53%EV -4.21%E -1.09%K -1.48%G +0.000%5.9%2026-11-04 17:05
NordicBet🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.43%EV -2.31%E -0.403%K -0.487%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.04%EV -6.99%E -4.37%K -11.65%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.53%EV -4.21%E -1.09%K -1.48%G +0.000%5.9%2026-11-04 17:05
Marathon Bet🎯5.70I 17.54%NM 16.83%EV -3.16%E -0.555%K -0.673%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.79%EV -3.50%E -2.11%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 25.38%EV -5.95%E -1.57%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.2%2026-11-04 16:10
Pinnacle🎯5.54I 18.05%NM 17.13%EV -5.88%E -1.06%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.22%EV -5.25%E -3.22%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.65%EV -4.21%E -1.09%K -1.48%G +0.000%5.4%2026-11-04 15:10
betfred_uk🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.36%EV -6.56%E -1.19%K -1.46%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -2.92%E -1.75%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.46%EV -6.70%E -1.79%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.7%2026-11-04 15:50
Bovada🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.23%EV -6.56%E -1.19%K -1.46%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.15%EV -5.25%E -3.22%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.62%EV -4.21%E -1.09%K -1.48%G +0.000%5.5%2026-11-04 16:46
Betr (AU)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.12%EV -6.56%E -1.19%K -1.46%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.11%EV -5.83%E -3.60%K -9.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.77%EV -5.45%E -1.44%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-04 14:40
Unibet (UK)🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.73%EV -10.81%E -2.06%K -2.54%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.45%EV -5.83%E -3.60%K -9.40%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.82%EV -6.70%E -1.79%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.4%2026-11-04 17:05
LeoVegas🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.74%EV -11.66%E -2.24%K -2.78%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.66%EV -6.99%E -4.37%K -11.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%EV -6.70%E -1.79%K -2.44%G +0.000%8.4%2026-11-04 17:04
Winamax (DE)🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.08%EV -13.36%E -2.62%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.64%EV -6.99%E -4.37%K -11.65%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -5.45%E -1.44%K -1.95%G +0.000%8.4%2026-11-04 17:05
Betclic (FR)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.53%EV -15.06%E -3.01%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 57.29%EV -11.06%E -7.23%K -20.87%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 25.19%EV -13.42%E -3.86%K -5.41%G +0.000%14.1%2026-11-04 17:05
Winamax (FR)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 18.66%EV -21.85%E -4.75%K -6.07%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 56.46%EV -11.64%E -7.66%K -22.39%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 24.88%EV -14.16%E -4.10%K -5.78%G +0.000%16.5%2026-11-04 17:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎4.70I 21.28%NM 18.19%1.53I 65.36%NM 55.89%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.91%16.9%2026-11-04 14:35