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Espanyol v Real Madrid

2026-08-22 19:30 UTC — La Liga - Spain

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Espanyol (Local)

Prediction 18.88%5.30fair odd
EV -0.882%
Edge -0.168%
Kelly -0.207%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.21%18.86%19.05%20.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.834.755.2523.81%20.72%21.05%19.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Real Madrid (Visit)

Prediction 57.94%1.73fair odd
EV -0.348%
Edge -0.202%
Kelly -0.483%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.72

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.83%58.01%57.72%59.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.541.611.601.7264.94%62.04%62.50%58.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.18%4.31fair odd
EV -1.47%
Edge -0.346%
Kelly -0.453%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.40%23.13%23.23%23.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.024.004.2527.03%24.89%25.00%23.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Espanyol (Local): 18.88%; Real Madrid (Visit): 57.94%; Draw: 23.18%. For Real Madrid (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.73. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.72, with an expected value of -0.348%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet5.25I 19.05%NM 18.21%EV -0.882%E -0.168%K -0.207%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.02%EV -6.14%E -3.79%K -9.91%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.77%EV -2.63%E -0.627%K -0.822%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-02 10:54
SportsBet5.10I 19.61%NM 18.70%EV -3.71%E -0.728%K -0.906%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.86%EV -6.14%E -3.79%K -9.91%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.44%EV -1.47%E -0.346%K -0.453%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-02 10:54
FanDuel5.10I 19.61%NM 18.44%EV -3.71%E -0.728%K -0.906%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.16%EV -7.88%E -4.96%K -13.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -2.63%E -0.627%K -0.822%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-02 11:00
1xBet5.05I 19.80%NM 19.48%EV -4.66%E -0.922%K -1.15%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 57.20%EV -0.348%E -0.202%K -0.483%G +0.000%4.22I 23.70%NM 23.31%EV -2.17%E -0.514%K -0.673%G +0.000%1.6%2026-08-02 10:54
Codere (IT)5.00I 20.00%NM 19.05%EV -5.60%E -1.12%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.72%EV -4.40%E -2.67%K -6.77%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.23%EV -4.95%E -1.21%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-02 11:50
betfred_uk5.00I 20.00%NM 18.95%EV -5.60%E -1.12%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.49%EV -6.14%E -3.79%K -9.91%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.56%EV -2.63%E -0.627%K -0.822%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-02 10:55
Betr (AU)5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -5.60%E -1.12%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.79%EV -7.30%E -4.56%K -12.17%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -2.63%E -0.627%K -0.822%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-02 10:55
Sky Bet5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -5.60%E -1.12%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.14%EV -7.30%E -4.56%K -12.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -7.27%E -1.82%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-02 10:59
Unibet (UK)4.75I 21.05%NM 19.42%EV -10.32%E -2.17%K -2.75%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.93%EV -6.14%E -3.79%K -9.91%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.65%EV -9.59%E -2.46%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-02 11:54
Paddy Power4.75I 21.05%NM 19.18%EV -10.32%E -2.17%K -2.75%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.04%EV -9.04%E -5.76%K -15.86%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -7.27%E -1.82%K -2.42%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-02 10:59
LeoVegas4.70I 21.28%NM 19.45%EV -11.27%E -2.40%K -3.04%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.12%EV -7.30%E -4.56%K -12.17%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.43%EV -9.59%E -2.46%K -3.31%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-02 11:50
Unibet (FR)4.70I 21.28%NM 19.04%EV -11.27%E -2.40%K -3.04%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 57.72%EV -10.20%E -6.58%K -18.54%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.24%EV -10.75%E -2.79%K -3.77%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-02 11:49
Betclic (FR)4.65I 21.51%NM 19.19%EV -12.21%E -2.63%K -3.35%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 57.20%EV -9.62%E -6.17%K -17.17%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 23.61%EV -12.37%E -3.27%K -4.45%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-02 11:55
William Hill4.60I 21.74%NM 20.27%EV -13.15%E -2.86%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.83%EV -3.24%E -1.94%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -9.59%E -2.46%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-02 11:44
Mr Green (SE)4.60I 21.74%NM 20.27%EV -13.15%E -2.86%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.83%EV -3.24%E -1.94%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -9.59%E -2.46%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-02 11:45
Winamax (DE)4.60I 21.74%NM 19.90%EV -13.15%E -2.86%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.21%EV -7.30%E -4.56%K -12.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.89%EV -7.27%E -1.82%K -2.42%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-02 11:49
Winamax (FR)4.20I 23.81%NM 20.57%EV -20.71%E -4.93%K -6.47%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 56.09%EV -10.78%E -7.00%K -19.96%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.35%EV -14.22%E -3.84%K -5.27%G +0.000%15.8%2026-08-02 11:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets4.30I 23.26%NM 19.91%1.53I 65.36%NM 55.97%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.12%16.8%2026-08-02 11:49
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.06I 94.34%NM 32.79%1.06I 94.34%NM 32.79%1.01I 99.01%NM 34.42%187.7%2026-08-02 12:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.06I 94.34%NM 32.79%1.06I 94.34%NM 32.79%1.01I 99.01%NM 34.42%187.7%2026-08-02 12:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.06I 94.34%NM 32.79%1.06I 94.34%NM 32.79%1.01I 99.01%NM 34.42%187.7%2026-08-02 12:20