La escuela de los momios

Espanyol v Athletic Bilbao

Inicio: 2026-05-13 17:00 UTC

Final: Espanyol 2–0 Athletic Bilbao

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

59 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Espanyol (Local)

Predicción 33.99%2.94momio equitativo
EV +0.271%
Ventaja +0.092%
Kelly +0.139%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.95

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
32.11%33.96%34.01%34.57%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.632.782.802.9538.02%35.97%35.71%33.90%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Athletic Bilbao (Visitante)

Predicción 33.21%3.01momio equitativo
EV -1.04%
Ventaja -0.350%
Kelly -0.527%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.98

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
32.51%33.33%33.12%35.52%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.502.782.802.9840.00%36.02%35.71%33.56%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 32.80%3.05momio equitativo
EV +3.33%
Ventaja +1.06%
Kelly +1.55%
Crecimiento +0.052%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.15

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.86%32.71%32.87%33.61%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.632.912.903.1538.02%34.37%34.48%31.75%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (59 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
Unibet (NL)2.90I 34.48%NM 33.61%EV -1.43%E -0.493%K -0.752%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 35.44%EV -8.68%E -3.16%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.94%EV +3.33%E +1.06%K +1.55%G +0.052%2.6%2026-05-13 16:55
ATG (SE)2.95I 33.90%NM 33.28%EV +0.271%E +0.092%K +0.139%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.06%EV -7.02%E -2.51%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.67%EV +1.69%E +0.545%K +0.804%G +0.014%1.9%2026-05-13 16:55
Unibet (SE)2.88I 34.72%NM 33.60%EV -2.11%E -0.732%K -1.12%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 35.19%EV -8.68%E -3.16%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.21%EV +1.69%E +0.545%K +0.804%G +0.014%3.3%2026-05-13 16:55
Svenska Spel2.88I 34.72%NM 33.60%EV -2.11%E -0.732%K -1.12%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 35.19%EV -8.68%E -3.16%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.21%EV +1.69%E +0.545%K +0.804%G +0.014%3.3%2026-05-13 16:55
Grosvenor2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -4.83%E -1.72%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -12.00%E -4.53%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.86%EV +0.048%E +0.016%K +0.023%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-13 16:55
Casumo2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -4.83%E -1.72%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -12.00%E -4.53%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.86%EV +0.048%E +0.016%K +0.023%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-13 16:55
betPARX2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -4.83%E -1.72%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -12.00%E -4.53%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.86%EV +0.048%E +0.016%K +0.023%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-13 16:55
Bally Bet2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -4.83%E -1.72%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -12.00%E -4.53%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.86%EV +0.048%E +0.016%K +0.023%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-13 16:55
theScore Bet2.80I 35.71%NM 34.09%EV -4.83%E -1.72%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.09%EV -7.02%E -2.51%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -1.59%E -0.531%K -0.796%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-13 16:50
betfred_uk2.80I 35.71%NM 33.88%EV -4.83%E -1.72%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.50%EV -8.68%E -3.16%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.62%EV -1.59%E -0.531%K -0.796%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-13 16:40
1xBet2.82I 35.46%NM 34.38%EV -4.15%E -1.47%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.98%EV -2.37%E -0.807%K -1.22%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 32.64%EV -2.58%E -0.867%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-13 16:50
Codere (IT)2.80I 35.71%NM 34.11%EV -4.83%E -1.72%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.51%EV -5.36%E -1.88%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.38%EV -3.23%E -1.10%K -1.66%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-13 16:55
Winamax (DE)2.75I 36.36%NM 34.10%EV -6.53%E -2.37%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.10%EV -8.68%E -3.16%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.79%EV -3.23%E -1.10%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-13 16:50
Betr (AU)2.75I 36.36%NM 33.89%EV -6.53%E -2.37%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.52%EV -10.34%E -3.83%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -3.23%E -1.10%K -1.66%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-13 16:50
Bet Right2.75I 36.36%NM 33.89%EV -6.53%E -2.37%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.52%EV -10.34%E -3.83%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -3.23%E -1.10%K -1.66%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-13 16:50
LiveScore Bet2.75I 36.36%NM 33.45%EV -6.53%E -2.37%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.38%EV -13.66%E -5.25%K -8.54%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV -3.23%E -1.10%K -1.66%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-13 16:55
TABtouch2.75I 36.36%NM 33.45%EV -6.53%E -2.37%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.38%EV -13.66%E -5.25%K -8.54%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV -3.23%E -1.10%K -1.66%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-13 16:55
Unibet2.75I 36.36%NM 33.45%EV -6.53%E -2.37%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.38%EV -13.66%E -5.25%K -8.54%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV -3.23%E -1.10%K -1.66%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-13 16:55
Virgin Bet2.75I 36.36%NM 33.45%EV -6.53%E -2.37%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.38%EV -13.66%E -5.25%K -8.54%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV -3.23%E -1.10%K -1.66%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-13 16:55
LeoVegas (SE)2.75I 36.36%NM 33.45%EV -6.53%E -2.37%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.38%EV -13.66%E -5.25%K -8.54%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV -3.23%E -1.10%K -1.66%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-13 16:55
Coolbet2.94I 34.01%NM 33.03%EV -0.069%E -0.023%K -0.035%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.95%EV -5.03%E -1.76%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.03%EV -3.56%E -1.21%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-13 16:45
Pinnacle2.86I 34.97%NM 34.06%EV -2.79%E -0.975%K -1.50%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.69%EV -1.04%E -0.350%K -0.527%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 33.25%EV -3.89%E -1.33%K -2.01%G +0.000%2.7%2026-05-13 16:50
Marathon Bet2.88I 34.72%NM 33.64%EV -2.11%E -0.732%K -1.12%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.18%EV -3.04%E -1.04%K -1.58%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.18%EV -4.22%E -1.44%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-13 16:55
Betclic (FR)2.73I 36.63%NM 34.57%EV -7.21%E -2.64%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.11%EV -5.36%E -1.88%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.32%EV -4.22%E -1.44%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-13 16:50
LowVig.ag2.83I 35.34%NM 34.14%EV -3.81%E -1.35%K -2.08%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 32.54%EV -1.37%E -0.463%K -0.698%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.32%EV -4.87%E -1.68%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-13 16:50
BetOnline.ag2.83I 35.34%NM 34.14%EV -3.81%E -1.35%K -2.08%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 32.54%EV -1.37%E -0.463%K -0.698%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.32%EV -4.87%E -1.68%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-13 16:50
BetUS2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.83%E -1.72%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.94%EV -3.70%E -1.28%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.94%EV -4.87%E -1.68%K -2.56%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-13 16:50
Unibet (UK)2.80I 35.71%NM 33.72%EV -4.83%E -1.72%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.72%EV -7.02%E -2.51%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -4.87%E -1.68%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-13 16:50
Tipico (DE)2.75I 36.36%NM 34.33%EV -6.53%E -2.37%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.12%EV -5.36%E -1.88%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.55%EV -4.87%E -1.68%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-13 16:40
BetMGM2.75I 36.36%NM 34.33%EV -6.53%E -2.37%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.12%EV -5.36%E -1.88%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.55%EV -4.87%E -1.68%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-13 16:40
Coral2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -6.53%E -2.37%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.52%EV -7.02%E -2.51%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -4.87%E -1.68%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-13 16:40
Winamax (FR)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.12%EV -8.23%E -3.05%K -4.84%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.12%EV -10.34%E -3.83%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV -4.87%E -1.68%K -2.56%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-13 16:50
BetRivers2.70I 37.04%NM 33.68%EV -8.23%E -3.05%K -4.84%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.97%EV -13.66%E -5.25%K -8.54%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.35%EV -4.87%E -1.68%K -2.56%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-13 16:55
PMU (FR)2.70I 37.04%NM 33.45%EV -8.23%E -3.05%K -4.84%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.41%EV -15.32%E -6.01%K -9.89%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.14%EV -4.87%E -1.68%K -2.56%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-13 16:55
NordicBet2.82I 35.46%NM 33.80%EV -4.15%E -1.47%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.10%EV -4.36%E -1.52%K -2.32%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.10%EV -5.53%E -1.92%K -2.94%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-13 16:45
Betsson2.82I 35.46%NM 33.80%EV -4.15%E -1.47%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.10%EV -4.36%E -1.52%K -2.32%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.10%EV -5.53%E -1.92%K -2.94%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-13 16:45
Bet Victor2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.83%E -1.72%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -4.36%E -1.52%K -2.32%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -5.53%E -1.92%K -2.94%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-13 16:48
Betway2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.53%E -2.37%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.82%EV -4.36%E -1.52%K -2.32%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.82%EV -5.53%E -1.92%K -2.94%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-13 16:35
Sky Bet2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.53%E -2.37%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.82%EV -4.36%E -1.52%K -2.32%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.82%EV -5.53%E -1.92%K -2.94%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-13 16:31
BoyleSports2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -6.53%E -2.37%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -8.68%E -3.16%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.31%EV -5.53%E -1.92%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-13 16:35
LeoVegas2.65I 37.74%NM 33.79%EV -9.93%E -3.75%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.12%EV -15.32%E -6.01%K -9.89%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.09%EV -5.53%E -1.92%K -2.94%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-13 16:55
Ladbrokes (UK)2.75I 36.36%NM 34.01%EV -6.53%E -2.37%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.40%EV -7.02%E -2.51%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.59%EV -5.86%E -2.04%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-13 16:40
Fanatics2.85I 35.09%NM 33.33%EV -3.13%E -1.10%K -1.69%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.33%EV -5.36%E -1.88%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.33%EV -6.51%E -2.29%K -3.52%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-13 16:50
FanDuel2.80I 35.71%NM 33.92%EV -4.83%E -1.72%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.75%EV -3.70%E -1.28%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.33%EV -6.51%E -2.29%K -3.52%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-13 16:31
DraftKings2.80I 35.71%NM 33.92%EV -4.83%E -1.72%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.75%EV -3.70%E -1.28%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.33%EV -6.51%E -2.29%K -3.52%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-13 16:50
Bovada2.80I 35.71%NM 33.92%EV -4.83%E -1.72%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.75%EV -3.70%E -1.28%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.33%EV -6.51%E -2.29%K -3.52%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-13 16:51
Everygame2.80I 35.71%NM 33.92%EV -4.83%E -1.72%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.75%EV -3.70%E -1.28%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.33%EV -6.51%E -2.29%K -3.52%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-13 16:45
Ladbrokes (AU)2.75I 36.36%NM 33.93%EV -6.53%E -2.37%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -7.02%E -2.51%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.74%EV -6.51%E -2.29%K -3.52%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-13 16:40
Neds2.75I 36.36%NM 33.93%EV -6.53%E -2.37%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -7.02%E -2.51%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.74%EV -6.51%E -2.29%K -3.52%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-13 16:40
SportsBet2.80I 35.71%NM 33.61%EV -4.83%E -1.72%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -4.70%E -1.64%K -2.51%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.61%EV -8.15%E -2.91%K -4.53%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-13 16:31
Paddy Power2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -6.53%E -2.37%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.51%EV -4.36%E -1.52%K -2.32%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -8.15%E -2.91%K -4.53%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-13 16:31
TAB2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -4.83%E -1.72%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -7.02%E -2.51%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -8.15%E -2.91%K -4.53%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-13 16:35
William Hill2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -6.53%E -2.37%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.13%EV -7.02%E -2.51%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.13%EV -8.15%E -2.91%K -4.53%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-13 16:45
Mr Green (SE)2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -6.53%E -2.37%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.13%EV -7.02%E -2.51%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.13%EV -8.15%E -2.91%K -4.53%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-13 16:45
PlayUp2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -8.23%E -3.05%K -4.84%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.93%EV -7.02%E -2.51%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.93%EV -8.15%E -2.91%K -4.53%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-13 16:45
Unibet (FR)2.85I 35.09%NM 32.11%EV -3.13%E -1.10%K -1.69%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.20%EV -13.66%E -5.25%K -8.54%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.69%EV -8.15%E -2.91%K -4.53%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-13 16:50
Fliff2.65I 37.74%NM 34.15%EV -9.93%E -3.75%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.52%EV -10.34%E -3.83%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.32%EV -8.15%E -2.91%K -4.53%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-13 16:40
NetBet (FR)2.67I 37.45%NM 34.16%EV -9.25%E -3.46%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 32.92%EV -8.02%E -2.89%K -4.53%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 32.92%EV -9.14%E -3.30%K -5.16%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-13 16:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.63I 38.02%NM 32.77%EV -10.61%E -4.03%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.47%EV -16.98%E -6.79%K -11.32%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 32.77%EV -13.73%E -5.22%K -8.42%G +0.000%16.0%2026-05-13 16:31
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.94I 34.01%NM 33.82%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.60%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.59%0.6%2026-05-13 16:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.94I 34.01%NM 33.82%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.60%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.59%0.6%2026-05-13 16:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.94I 34.01%NM 33.82%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.60%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.59%0.6%2026-05-13 16:45
Smarkets2.92I 34.25%NM 33.97%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.52%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.51%0.8%2026-05-13 16:55
Matchbook2.92I 34.25%NM 33.97%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.52%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.51%0.8%2026-05-13 16:55
Kalshi2.86I 34.97%NM 33.95%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.03%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.03%3.0%2026-05-13 16:41