La escuela de los momios

Elche CF v Espanyol

Inicio: 2026-03-01 13:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

58 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Elche CF (Local)

Predicción 38.53%2.60momio equitativo
EV -0.972%
Ventaja -0.378%
Kelly -0.619%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.57

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
37.41%38.68%38.50%39.53%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.302.432.452.5743.48%41.16%40.82%38.91%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Espanyol (Visitante)

Predicción 32.17%3.11momio equitativo
EV -0.278%
Ventaja -0.090%
Kelly -0.133%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.38%32.10%32.18%33.17%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.632.952.953.1038.02%33.93%33.90%32.26%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 29.30%3.41momio equitativo
EV -0.382%
Ventaja -0.112%
Kelly -0.159%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.86%29.23%29.32%30.38%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.883.233.203.4034.72%31.00%31.25%29.41%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet2.57I 38.91%NM 38.29%EV -0.972%E -0.378%K -0.619%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 32.16%EV -1.57%E -0.511%K -0.760%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.55%EV -2.43%E -0.731%K -1.04%G +0.000%1.6%2026-03-01 12:44
Pinnacle2.55I 39.22%NM 38.18%EV -1.74%E -0.683%K -1.12%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 32.23%EV -2.85%E -0.944%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.59%EV -3.61%E -1.10%K -1.57%G +0.000%2.7%2026-03-01 12:39
LowVig.ag2.52I 39.68%NM 38.34%EV -2.90%E -1.15%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.20%EV -3.50%E -1.17%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.46%EV -3.90%E -1.19%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-01 12:29
BetOnline.ag2.52I 39.68%NM 38.34%EV -2.90%E -1.15%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.20%EV -3.50%E -1.17%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.46%EV -3.90%E -1.19%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-01 12:29
Coolbet2.51I 39.84%NM 38.71%EV -3.28%E -1.31%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.85%EV -1.89%E -0.619%K -0.920%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.44%EV -3.31%E -1.00%K -1.44%G +0.000%2.9%2026-03-01 12:29
Marathon Bet2.50I 40.00%NM 38.77%EV -3.67%E -1.47%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.68%EV -1.57%E -0.511%K -0.760%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.55%EV -3.90%E -1.19%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-01 12:44
DraftKings2.50I 40.00%NM 38.22%EV -3.67%E -1.47%K -2.45%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.39%EV -5.10%E -1.73%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.40%EV -4.78%E -1.47%K -2.12%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-01 12:44
Codere (IT)2.50I 40.00%NM 38.22%EV -3.67%E -1.47%K -2.45%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.39%EV -5.10%E -1.73%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.40%EV -4.78%E -1.47%K -2.12%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-01 12:39
Bovada2.49I 40.16%NM 38.14%EV -4.05%E -1.63%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.19%EV -5.10%E -1.73%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -6.24%E -1.95%K -2.84%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-01 12:37
ATG (SE)2.48I 40.32%NM 39.19%EV -4.44%E -1.79%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.35%EV -0.278%E -0.090%K -0.133%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.45%EV -3.31%E -1.00%K -1.44%G +0.000%2.9%2026-03-01 12:29
NordicBet2.48I 40.32%NM 38.36%EV -4.44%E -1.79%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.92%EV -4.14%E -1.39%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.73%EV -6.24%E -1.95%K -2.84%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-01 11:29
Betsson2.48I 40.32%NM 38.36%EV -4.44%E -1.79%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.92%EV -4.14%E -1.39%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.73%EV -6.24%E -1.95%K -2.84%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-01 11:29
Unibet (NL)2.45I 40.82%NM 39.48%EV -5.60%E -2.28%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.20%EV -0.278%E -0.090%K -0.133%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.31%EV -3.31%E -1.00%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-01 12:29
Unibet (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 39.48%EV -5.60%E -2.28%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.20%EV -0.278%E -0.090%K -0.133%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.31%EV -3.31%E -1.00%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-01 12:29
Svenska Spel2.45I 40.82%NM 39.48%EV -5.60%E -2.28%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.20%EV -0.278%E -0.090%K -0.133%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.31%EV -3.31%E -1.00%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-01 12:30
Betclic (FR)2.45I 40.82%NM 39.18%EV -5.60%E -2.28%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.00%EV -3.50%E -1.17%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.83%EV -2.43%E -0.731%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-01 12:38
theScore Bet2.45I 40.82%NM 38.98%EV -5.60%E -2.28%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.93%EV -6.71%E -2.31%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.09%EV -0.382%E -0.112%K -0.159%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-01 12:29
BetUS2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -5.60%E -2.28%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.77%EV -3.50%E -1.17%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.33%EV -4.78%E -1.47%K -2.12%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-01 12:44
Unibet (FR)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.80%EV -5.60%E -2.28%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.22%EV -5.10%E -1.73%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.98%EV -3.90%E -1.19%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-01 12:44
Everygame2.45I 40.82%NM 38.73%EV -5.60%E -2.28%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.63%EV -3.50%E -1.17%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.65%EV -6.24%E -1.95%K -2.84%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-01 12:44
Winamax (DE)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.65%EV -5.60%E -2.28%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.65%EV -6.71%E -2.31%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.70%EV -3.31%E -1.00%K -1.44%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-01 12:29
Coral2.45I 40.82%NM 38.65%EV -5.60%E -2.28%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.65%EV -6.71%E -2.31%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.70%EV -3.31%E -1.00%K -1.44%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-01 11:59
BetMGM2.45I 40.82%NM 38.65%EV -5.60%E -2.28%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.65%EV -6.71%E -2.31%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.70%EV -3.31%E -1.00%K -1.44%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-01 11:59
FanDuel2.45I 40.82%NM 38.52%EV -5.60%E -2.28%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.99%EV -5.10%E -1.73%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -6.24%E -1.95%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-01 12:29
Unibet (UK)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.48%EV -5.60%E -2.28%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.51%EV -6.71%E -2.31%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.01%EV -4.78%E -1.47%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-01 12:44
SportsBet2.45I 40.82%NM 38.48%EV -5.60%E -2.28%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.51%EV -6.71%E -2.31%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.01%EV -4.78%E -1.47%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-01 12:29
Ladbrokes (UK)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.35%EV -5.60%E -2.28%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.74%EV -7.68%E -2.67%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.91%EV -4.78%E -1.47%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-01 11:59
Fanatics2.45I 40.82%NM 38.31%EV -5.60%E -2.28%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -6.71%E -2.31%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV -6.24%E -1.95%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-01 11:44
Neds2.45I 40.82%NM 38.26%EV -5.60%E -2.28%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.89%EV -8.32%E -2.92%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -4.78%E -1.47%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-01 12:00
Ladbrokes (AU)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.26%EV -5.60%E -2.28%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.89%EV -8.32%E -2.92%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -4.78%E -1.47%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-01 12:00
William Hill2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95%EV -5.60%E -2.28%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.06%EV -6.71%E -2.31%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -9.17%E -2.96%K -4.37%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-01 12:29
Mr Green (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95%EV -5.60%E -2.28%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.06%EV -6.71%E -2.31%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -9.17%E -2.96%K -4.37%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-01 11:59
Bet Victor2.40I 41.67%NM 39.47%EV -7.52%E -3.13%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.67%EV -6.71%E -2.31%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.86%EV -0.382%E -0.112%K -0.159%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-01 12:40
Tipico (DE)2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -7.52%E -3.13%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -0.278%E -0.090%K -0.133%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -9.17%E -2.96%K -4.37%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-01 12:44
Betway2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -7.52%E -3.13%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -3.50%E -1.17%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -6.24%E -1.95%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-01 12:39
Sky Bet2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -7.52%E -3.13%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -6.71%E -2.31%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -3.31%E -1.00%K -1.44%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-01 12:29
Betr (AU)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.92%EV -7.52%E -3.13%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.77%EV -8.32%E -2.92%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -3.31%E -1.00%K -1.44%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-01 12:00
Parions Sport (FR)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.80%EV -7.52%E -3.13%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -6.71%E -2.31%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -6.24%E -1.95%K -2.84%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-01 12:40
PMU (FR)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.80%EV -7.52%E -3.13%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -6.71%E -2.31%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -6.24%E -1.95%K -2.84%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-01 12:29
Paddy Power2.40I 41.67%NM 38.71%EV -7.52%E -3.13%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.26%EV -7.36%E -2.55%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.03%EV -6.24%E -1.95%K -2.84%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-01 12:29
Bet Right2.40I 41.67%NM 38.69%EV -7.52%E -3.13%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -9.93%E -3.55%K -5.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -3.31%E -1.00%K -1.44%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-01 12:29
Winamax (FR)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.58%EV -7.52%E -3.13%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.49%EV -8.32%E -2.92%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.93%EV -6.24%E -1.95%K -2.84%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-01 12:39
NetBet (FR)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.49%EV -7.52%E -3.13%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.19%EV -7.68%E -2.67%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.32%EV -7.71%E -2.45%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-01 12:30
TAB2.40I 41.67%NM 38.44%EV -7.52%E -3.13%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -6.71%E -2.31%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -9.17%E -2.96%K -4.37%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-01 11:59
BetRivers2.38I 42.02%NM 39.42%EV -8.29%E -3.48%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.27%EV -3.50%E -1.17%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -6.24%E -1.95%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-01 12:29
Grosvenor2.38I 42.02%NM 39.42%EV -8.29%E -3.48%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.27%EV -3.50%E -1.17%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -6.24%E -1.95%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-01 12:30
Unibet2.38I 42.02%NM 39.42%EV -8.29%E -3.48%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.27%EV -3.50%E -1.17%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -6.24%E -1.95%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-01 12:29
Casumo2.38I 42.02%NM 39.42%EV -8.29%E -3.48%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.27%EV -3.50%E -1.17%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -6.24%E -1.95%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-01 12:30
LeoVegas (SE)2.38I 42.02%NM 39.42%EV -8.29%E -3.48%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.27%EV -3.50%E -1.17%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -6.24%E -1.95%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-01 12:30
TABtouch2.38I 42.02%NM 39.42%EV -8.29%E -3.48%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.27%EV -3.50%E -1.17%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -6.24%E -1.95%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-01 12:29
Bally Bet2.38I 42.02%NM 39.42%EV -8.29%E -3.48%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.27%EV -3.50%E -1.17%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -6.24%E -1.95%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-01 12:29
betPARX2.38I 42.02%NM 39.42%EV -8.29%E -3.48%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.27%EV -3.50%E -1.17%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -6.24%E -1.95%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-01 12:30
BoyleSports2.38I 42.02%NM 38.20%EV -8.29%E -3.48%K -6.01%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.47%EV -9.93%E -3.55%K -5.52%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -9.17%E -2.96%K -4.37%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-01 11:59
LeoVegas2.33I 42.92%NM 39.53%EV -10.22%E -4.39%K -7.68%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.22%EV -5.10%E -1.73%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%EV -7.71%E -2.45%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-01 10:39
Virgin Bet2.33I 42.92%NM 39.53%EV -10.22%E -4.39%K -7.68%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.22%EV -5.10%E -1.73%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%EV -7.71%E -2.45%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-01 12:29
LiveScore Bet2.33I 42.92%NM 39.53%EV -10.22%E -4.39%K -7.68%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.22%EV -5.10%E -1.73%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%EV -7.71%E -2.45%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-01 12:30
Fliff2.30I 43.48%NM 39.41%EV -11.38%E -4.95%K -8.75%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.81%EV -8.32%E -2.92%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.78%EV -7.71%E -2.45%K -3.58%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-01 12:44
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 37.41%EV -11.38%E -4.95%K -8.75%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 32.72%EV -15.40%E -5.85%K -9.45%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.88%EV -15.62%E -5.42%K -8.31%G +0.000%16.2%2026-03-01 11:29
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.58I 38.76%NM 38.62%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.63%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.74%0.4%2026-03-01 12:45
Matchbook2.58I 38.76%NM 38.62%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.63%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.74%0.4%2026-03-01 12:44
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.58I 38.76%NM 38.43%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.98%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.59%0.9%2026-03-01 12:44
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.58I 38.76%NM 38.43%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.98%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.59%0.9%2026-03-01 12:45
Smarkets2.56I 39.06%NM 38.41%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.24%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.35%1.7%2026-03-01 12:44