The School of Odds
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Elche CF v Celta Vigo

2026-10-11 12:00 UTC — La Liga - Spain

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Elche CF (Local)

Prediction 32.63%3.06fair odd
EV -2.44%
Edge -0.816%
Kelly -1.23%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.99

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.86%32.61%32.62%33.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.862.892.9938.46%34.94%34.60%33.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Celta Vigo (Visit)

Prediction 37.89%2.64fair odd
EV -2.25%
Edge -0.872%
Kelly -1.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.31%37.92%37.84%38.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.472.492.5844.44%40.41%40.16%38.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.48%3.39fair odd
EV +0.539%
Edge +0.158%
Kelly +0.224%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 3.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.68%29.48%29.54%30.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.183.173.4133.33%31.49%31.50%29.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Elche CF (Local): 32.63%; Celta Vigo (Visit): 37.89%; Draw: 29.48%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.39. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 3.41, producing a positive expected value of +0.539%.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.99I 33.44%NM 32.94%EV -2.44%E -0.816%K -1.23%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 38.18%EV -2.25%E -0.872%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 28.88%EV +0.539%E +0.158%K +0.224%G +0.001%1.5%2026-09-17 13:26
Marathon Bet🎯2.91I 34.36%NM 32.94%EV -5.05%E -1.74%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 38.19%EV -4.90%E -1.95%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.87%EV -2.11%E -0.637%K -0.911%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-17 13:06
betfred_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 33.06%EV -6.03%E -2.09%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.09%EV -5.28%E -2.11%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.85%EV -2.70%E -0.819%K -1.18%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-17 13:05
Betr (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.65%EV -5.38%E -1.85%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.65%EV -7.18%E -2.93%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.70%EV -2.70%E -0.819%K -1.18%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-17 13:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.63%EV -3.75%E -1.27%K -1.92%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.75%EV -3.39%E -1.33%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.62%EV -4.18%E -1.29%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-17 12:51
Grosvenor🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.63%EV -3.75%E -1.27%K -1.92%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.75%EV -3.39%E -1.33%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.62%EV -4.18%E -1.29%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-17 12:51
Unibet (NL)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.63%EV -3.75%E -1.27%K -1.92%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.75%EV -3.39%E -1.33%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.62%EV -4.18%E -1.29%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-17 12:51
BetRivers🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.63%EV -3.75%E -1.27%K -1.92%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.75%EV -3.39%E -1.33%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.62%EV -4.18%E -1.29%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-17 12:50
Svenska Spel🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.63%EV -3.75%E -1.27%K -1.92%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.75%EV -3.39%E -1.33%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.62%EV -4.18%E -1.29%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-17 12:50
betPARX🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.63%EV -3.75%E -1.27%K -1.92%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.75%EV -3.39%E -1.33%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.62%EV -4.18%E -1.29%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-17 12:50
Bally Bet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.63%EV -3.75%E -1.27%K -1.92%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.75%EV -3.39%E -1.33%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.62%EV -4.18%E -1.29%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-17 12:50
ATG (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.63%EV -3.75%E -1.27%K -1.92%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.75%EV -3.39%E -1.33%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.62%EV -4.18%E -1.29%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-17 12:50
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.63%EV -3.75%E -1.27%K -1.92%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.75%EV -3.39%E -1.33%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.62%EV -4.18%E -1.29%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-17 13:30
Pinnacle🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 32.64%EV -4.72%E -1.62%K -2.46%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 37.67%EV -4.14%E -1.64%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.21I 31.15%NM 29.69%EV -5.36%E -1.67%K -2.42%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-17 13:10
Winamax (DE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -8.64%E -3.09%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.36%EV -9.07%E -3.78%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -5.65%E -1.77%K -2.57%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-17 12:16
Betsson🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 32.41%EV -4.72%E -1.62%K -2.46%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.55%EV -4.52%E -1.79%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.04%EV -7.13%E -2.26%K -3.31%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-17 13:20
NordicBet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.38%E -1.85%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.47%EV -4.52%E -1.79%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.97%EV -7.13%E -2.26%K -3.31%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-17 13:20
Unibet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.74%EV -7.01%E -2.46%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.63%EV -6.04%E -2.43%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.63%EV -7.13%E -2.26%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-17 12:51
LiveScore Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.83%EV -8.64%E -3.09%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.52%EV -7.18%E -2.93%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -8.60%E -2.77%K -4.10%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-17 12:51
TABtouch🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.83%EV -8.64%E -3.09%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.52%EV -7.18%E -2.93%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -8.60%E -2.77%K -4.10%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-17 12:51
PMU (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.83%EV -8.64%E -3.09%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.52%EV -7.18%E -2.93%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -8.60%E -2.77%K -4.10%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-17 12:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.83%EV -8.64%E -3.09%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.52%EV -7.18%E -2.93%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -8.60%E -2.77%K -4.10%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-17 12:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.83%EV -8.64%E -3.09%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.52%EV -7.18%E -2.93%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -8.60%E -2.77%K -4.10%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-17 14:20
William Hill🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.83%EV -8.64%E -3.09%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.52%EV -7.18%E -2.93%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -8.60%E -2.77%K -4.10%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-17 14:20
BoyleSports🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.87%EV -10.27%E -3.73%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.98%EV -9.83%E -4.13%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.16%EV -8.60%E -2.77%K -4.10%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-17 13:35
LeoVegas🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.67%EV -8.64%E -3.09%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.34%EV -7.18%E -2.93%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.99%EV -10.08%E -3.30%K -4.91%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-17 14:20
Virgin Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.97%EV -10.27%E -3.73%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.31%EV -7.93%E -3.26%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.72%EV -10.08%E -3.30%K -4.91%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-17 12:50
Betclic (FR)🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 32.15%EV -9.29%E -3.34%K -5.22%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 38.36%EV -11.72%E -5.03%K -8.81%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 29.50%EV -10.66%E -3.52%K -5.25%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-17 12:34
Unibet (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 31.86%EV -10.27%E -3.73%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.94%EV -14.75%E -6.56%K -11.80%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.20%EV -11.55%E -3.85%K -5.77%G +0.000%14.1%2026-09-17 12:16
Winamax (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 33.09%EV -15.17%E -5.83%K -9.48%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.24%EV -14.75%E -6.56%K -11.80%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.68%EV -11.55%E -3.85%K -5.77%G +0.000%16.2%2026-09-17 12:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.66I 37.59%NM 32.43%2.28I 43.86%NM 37.83%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.74%15.9%2026-09-17 12:36