La escuela de los momios

CA Osasuna v Sevilla

Inicio: 2026-04-26 16:30 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

58 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

CA Osasuna (Local)

Predicción 44.37%2.25momio equitativo
EV -1.49%
Ventaja -0.672%
Kelly -1.22%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.22

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
43.03%44.43%44.44%46.05%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.002.112.102.2250.00%47.43%47.62%45.05%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Sevilla (Visitante)

Predicción 27.76%3.60momio equitativo
EV -0.069%
Ventaja -0.019%
Kelly -0.027%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.89%27.71%27.79%29.07%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.203.403.403.6031.25%29.38%29.41%27.78%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 27.87%3.59momio equitativo
EV -1.07%
Ventaja -0.301%
Kelly -0.419%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.55

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.77%27.85%27.77%29.21%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.383.403.5533.33%29.62%29.41%28.17%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet2.22I 45.05%NM 44.43%EV -1.49%E -0.672%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 27.55%EV -0.624%E -0.174%K -0.242%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 28.02%EV -1.90%E -0.541%K -0.755%G +0.000%1.4%2026-04-23 23:45
Coral2.20I 45.45%NM 43.22%EV -2.38%E -1.08%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -5.62%E -1.65%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.81%EV -8.03%E -2.43%K -3.49%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-23 21:49
BetMGM2.20I 45.45%NM 43.03%EV -2.38%E -1.08%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV -5.62%E -1.65%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.13%EV -9.43%E -2.90%K -4.19%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-23 21:50
Marathon Bet2.18I 45.87%NM 44.46%EV -3.27%E -1.50%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.53%EV -2.29%E -0.650%K -0.909%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 28.01%EV -3.58%E -1.03%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-24 03:35
Codere (IT)2.18I 45.87%NM 43.63%EV -3.27%E -1.50%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.98%EV -5.62%E -1.65%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.39%EV -6.64%E -1.98%K -2.83%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-24 03:05
LowVig.ag2.16I 46.30%NM 44.72%EV -4.15%E -1.92%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 27.84%EV -3.68%E -1.06%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.44%EV -1.90%E -0.541%K -0.755%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-23 21:54
BetOnline.ag2.16I 46.30%NM 44.72%EV -4.15%E -1.92%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 27.84%EV -3.68%E -1.06%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.44%EV -1.90%E -0.541%K -0.755%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-23 21:54
DraftKings2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.60%E -2.14%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.92%EV -5.62%E -1.65%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.92%EV -5.25%E -1.54%K -2.19%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 21:54
Winamax (DE)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.94%EV -4.60%E -2.14%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -9.78%E -3.01%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.99%EV -2.46%E -0.703%K -0.984%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-23 21:59
Unibet (UK)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -4.60%E -2.14%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -5.62%E -1.65%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -8.03%E -2.43%K -3.49%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-24 03:03
Fanatics2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -4.60%E -2.14%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -5.62%E -1.65%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -8.03%E -2.43%K -3.49%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-23 21:43
Betway2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -4.60%E -2.14%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -8.40%E -2.54%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -5.25%E -1.54%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-23 21:54
betfred_uk2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -4.60%E -2.14%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -8.40%E -2.54%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -5.25%E -1.54%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-23 22:10
Neds2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -4.60%E -2.14%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -5.62%E -1.65%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -9.43%E -2.90%K -4.19%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-23 21:49
Ladbrokes (UK)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -4.60%E -2.14%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -5.62%E -1.65%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -9.43%E -2.90%K -4.19%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-23 21:49
Ladbrokes (AU)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -4.60%E -2.14%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -5.62%E -1.65%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -9.43%E -2.90%K -4.19%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-23 21:45
Betr (AU)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -4.60%E -2.14%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -8.40%E -2.54%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -8.03%E -2.43%K -3.49%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-23 22:05
Unibet (NL)2.14I 46.73%NM 45.33%EV -5.04%E -2.36%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.95%EV -0.069%E -0.019%K -0.027%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.72%EV -2.46%E -0.703%K -0.984%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-24 02:35
Svenska Spel2.14I 46.73%NM 45.33%EV -5.04%E -2.36%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.95%EV -0.069%E -0.019%K -0.027%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.72%EV -2.46%E -0.703%K -0.984%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-24 02:34
Unibet (SE)2.14I 46.73%NM 45.33%EV -5.04%E -2.36%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.95%EV -0.069%E -0.019%K -0.027%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.72%EV -2.46%E -0.703%K -0.984%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-24 02:35
ATG (SE)2.14I 46.73%NM 45.33%EV -5.04%E -2.36%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.95%EV -0.069%E -0.019%K -0.027%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.72%EV -2.46%E -0.703%K -0.984%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-24 02:35
Pinnacle2.13I 46.95%NM 44.67%EV -5.49%E -2.58%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.82%EV -5.07%E -1.48%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.50%EV -3.58%E -1.03%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-23 22:10
Bovada2.13I 46.95%NM 44.57%EV -5.49%E -2.58%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.92%EV -5.62%E -1.65%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.51%EV -3.85%E -1.12%K -1.57%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 21:56
BetUS2.13I 46.95%NM 44.57%EV -5.49%E -2.58%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.92%EV -5.62%E -1.65%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.51%EV -3.85%E -1.12%K -1.57%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 21:54
NordicBet2.12I 47.17%NM 44.86%EV -5.93%E -2.80%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.57%EV -4.23%E -1.23%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.57%EV -3.85%E -1.12%K -1.57%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-23 21:54
Betclic (FR)2.12I 47.17%NM 44.02%EV -5.93%E -2.80%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 27.69%EV -6.45%E -1.91%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -8.03%E -2.43%K -3.49%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-24 03:04
Coolbet2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -6.82%E -3.25%K -6.20%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.89%EV -1.46%E -0.410%K -0.571%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.66%EV -3.85%E -1.12%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-24 03:40
betPARX2.10I 47.62%NM 45.28%EV -6.82%E -3.25%K -6.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.17%EV -2.84%E -0.813%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.56%EV -3.85%E -1.12%K -1.57%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-24 02:34
Bally Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 45.28%EV -6.82%E -3.25%K -6.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.17%EV -2.84%E -0.813%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.56%EV -3.85%E -1.12%K -1.57%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-24 02:35
Grosvenor2.10I 47.62%NM 45.28%EV -6.82%E -3.25%K -6.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.17%EV -2.84%E -0.813%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.56%EV -3.85%E -1.12%K -1.57%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-24 02:35
Casumo2.10I 47.62%NM 45.28%EV -6.82%E -3.25%K -6.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.17%EV -2.84%E -0.813%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.56%EV -3.85%E -1.12%K -1.57%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-24 02:35
SportsBet2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -6.82%E -3.25%K -6.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -5.62%E -1.65%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -5.25%E -1.54%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-24 03:28
theScore Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -6.82%E -3.25%K -6.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -5.62%E -1.65%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -5.25%E -1.54%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-23 22:05
TAB2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -6.82%E -3.25%K -6.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -8.40%E -2.54%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -5.25%E -1.54%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-23 21:55
Bet Right2.10I 47.62%NM 44.18%EV -6.82%E -3.25%K -6.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.12%EV -8.40%E -2.54%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.70%EV -6.64%E -1.98%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-23 22:10
NetBet (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.99%EV -6.82%E -3.25%K -6.20%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.58%EV -7.01%E -2.09%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.43%EV -9.43%E -2.90%K -4.19%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-23 22:04
Winamax (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -6.82%E -3.25%K -6.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -11.17%E -3.49%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -5.25%E -1.54%K -2.19%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-24 03:04
William Hill2.10I 47.62%NM 43.81%EV -6.82%E -3.25%K -6.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -8.40%E -2.54%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -9.43%E -2.90%K -4.19%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-23 22:29
Mr Green (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.81%EV -6.82%E -3.25%K -6.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -8.40%E -2.54%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -9.43%E -2.90%K -4.19%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-23 22:30
Unibet (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -6.82%E -3.25%K -6.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -8.40%E -2.54%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -10.82%E -3.38%K -4.92%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-24 03:05
Bet Victor2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -6.82%E -3.25%K -6.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -8.40%E -2.54%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -10.82%E -3.38%K -4.92%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-23 22:09
Betsson2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -7.70%E -3.70%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.54%EV -4.23%E -1.23%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.77%EV -1.07%E -0.301%K -0.419%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-24 00:25
PlayUp2.08I 48.08%NM 44.24%EV -7.70%E -3.70%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -8.40%E -2.54%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -8.03%E -2.43%K -3.49%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-23 21:55
Unibet2.07I 48.31%NM 45.27%EV -8.15%E -3.94%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.16%EV -4.23%E -1.23%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -5.25%E -1.54%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-24 02:35
LeoVegas (SE)2.07I 48.31%NM 45.27%EV -8.15%E -3.94%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.16%EV -4.23%E -1.23%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -5.25%E -1.54%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-24 02:35
TABtouch2.07I 48.31%NM 45.27%EV -8.15%E -3.94%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.16%EV -4.23%E -1.23%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -5.25%E -1.54%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-24 02:35
BetRivers2.06I 48.54%NM 45.39%EV -8.59%E -4.17%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.10%EV -4.23%E -1.23%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.50%EV -5.25%E -1.54%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-24 02:34
Tipico (DE)2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -9.04%E -4.41%K -8.61%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -2.84%E -0.813%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -2.46%E -0.703%K -0.984%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-23 21:55
PMU (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.51%EV -9.04%E -4.41%K -8.61%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -4.23%E -1.23%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -5.25%E -1.54%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-24 02:35
Sky Bet2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -9.04%E -4.41%K -8.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -5.62%E -1.65%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -5.25%E -1.54%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-24 03:29
FanDuel2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -9.04%E -4.41%K -8.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -5.62%E -1.65%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -5.25%E -1.54%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-24 03:30
Paddy Power2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -9.04%E -4.41%K -8.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -5.62%E -1.65%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -5.25%E -1.54%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-24 03:30
Everygame2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -9.04%E -4.41%K -8.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -8.40%E -2.54%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -8.03%E -2.43%K -3.49%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-23 21:54
BoyleSports2.05I 48.78%NM 44.41%EV -9.04%E -4.41%K -8.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -9.78%E -3.01%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -8.03%E -2.43%K -3.49%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-23 21:54
LeoVegas2.02I 49.50%NM 45.51%EV -10.37%E -5.13%K -10.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -5.62%E -1.65%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.44%EV -6.64%E -1.98%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-24 02:35
LiveScore Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 45.21%EV -11.25%E -5.63%K -11.25%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -8.40%E -2.54%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -8.03%E -2.43%K -3.49%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-24 02:34
Virgin Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 45.21%EV -11.25%E -5.63%K -11.25%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -8.40%E -2.54%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -8.03%E -2.43%K -3.49%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-24 02:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 43.82%EV -11.25%E -5.63%K -11.25%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.97%EV -9.78%E -3.01%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.21%EV -16.39%E -5.46%K -8.20%G +0.000%14.1%2026-04-24 03:25
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.18I 45.87%NM 45.40%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.49%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.11%1.0%2026-04-24 03:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.18I 45.87%NM 45.40%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.49%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.11%1.0%2026-04-24 03:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.18I 45.87%NM 45.40%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.49%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.11%1.0%2026-04-24 03:15
Matchbook2.18I 45.87%NM 45.40%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.49%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.11%1.0%2026-04-24 03:35
Kalshi2.13I 46.95%NM 45.59%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.20%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.20%3.0%2026-04-24 00:50
Smarkets2.14I 46.73%NM 44.97%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.30%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.73%3.9%2026-04-24 00:10