The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Barcelona v Celta Vigo

Kickoff: 2026-04-23 19:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Barcelona (Local)

Prediction 74.88%1.34fair odd
EV -3.41%
Edge -2.64%
Kelly -11.74%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.29

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
71.34%75.09%74.88%77.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.181.241.251.2984.75%80.56%80.00%77.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Celta Vigo (Visit)

Prediction 10.40%9.62fair odd
EV -0.195%
Edge -0.020%
Kelly -0.023%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 9.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.89%10.39%10.26%12.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.758.789.009.6014.81%11.39%11.11%10.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 14.72%6.79fair odd
EV +10.14%
Edge +1.36%
Kelly +1.56%
Growth +0.159%

assuming max odds 7.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.06%14.52%14.86%16.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.206.326.337.4819.23%15.83%15.81%13.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Barcelona (Local): 74.88%; Celta Vigo (Visit): 10.40%; Draw: 14.72%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.79. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.48, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.14%.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 76.52%EV -3.41%E -2.64%K -11.74%G +0.000%9.60I 10.42%NM 10.28%EV -0.195%E -0.020%K -0.023%G +0.000%7.48I 13.37%NM 13.20%EV +10.14%E +1.36%K +1.56%G +0.159%1.3%2026-04-06 06:09
Tipico (DE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.05%EV -8.65%E -7.09%K -39.31%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.89%EV -1.23%E -0.130%K -0.145%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.06%EV +6.02%E +0.836%K +0.970%G +0.058%6.4%2026-04-06 06:08
Bovada🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.94%EV -6.40%E -5.12%K -25.60%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.99%EV -1.23%E -0.130%K -0.145%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.06%EV -0.610%E -0.090%K -0.106%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-06 06:08
Pinnacle🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.72%EV -7.15%E -5.77%K -29.79%G +0.000%9.14I 10.94%NM 10.27%EV -4.98%E -0.545%K -0.611%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 14.01%EV -1.35%E -0.201%K -0.236%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-06 06:20
SportsBet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.54%EV -6.40%E -5.12%K -25.60%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -1.23%E -0.130%K -0.145%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -4.29%E -0.660%K -0.780%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-06 06:08
William Hill🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.66%EV -6.40%E -5.12%K -25.60%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.98%EV -11.63%E -1.37%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -4.29%E -0.660%K -0.780%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-06 06:09
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.66%EV -6.40%E -5.12%K -25.60%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.98%EV -11.63%E -1.37%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -4.29%E -0.660%K -0.780%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-06 06:09
Codere (IT)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.99%EV -4.90%E -3.86%K -18.16%G +0.000%9.40I 10.64%NM 10.13%EV -2.27%E -0.242%K -0.271%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.88%EV -5.76%E -0.901%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-06 06:09
Winamax (DE)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 73.89%EV -7.15%E -5.77%K -29.79%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.45%EV -16.83%E -2.10%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.66%EV -7.97%E -1.28%K -1.52%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-06 06:08
Betr (AU)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -4.90%E -3.86%K -18.16%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.43%EV -6.43%E -0.715%K -0.804%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.65%EV -11.65%E -1.94%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-06 06:08
Sky Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -6.40%E -5.12%K -25.60%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.31%EV -6.43%E -0.715%K -0.804%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.46%EV -11.65%E -1.94%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-06 06:08
Betway🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.78%EV -6.40%E -5.12%K -25.60%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.85%EV -11.63%E -1.37%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.37%EV -11.65%E -1.94%K -2.33%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-06 06:09
FanDuel🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 73.93%EV -7.15%E -5.77%K -29.79%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.79%EV -11.63%E -1.37%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.28%EV -11.65%E -1.94%K -2.33%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-06 06:08
Paddy Power🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.69%EV -8.65%E -7.09%K -39.31%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.12%EV -6.43%E -0.715%K -0.804%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.19%EV -11.65%E -1.94%K -2.33%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-06 06:10
Unibet (FR)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 73.56%EV -10.89%E -9.15%K -57.34%G +0.000%8.10I 12.35%NM 10.81%EV -15.79%E -1.95%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.63%EV -17.54%E -3.13%K -3.81%G +0.000%14.2%2026-04-06 06:09
Winamax (FR)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 71.34%EV -11.64%E -9.87%K -64.68%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 12.47%EV -29.82%E -4.42%K -5.19%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.19%EV -23.43%E -4.51%K -5.58%G +0.000%18.8%2026-04-06 06:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.20I 83.33%NM 71.33%7.20I 13.89%NM 11.89%5.10I 19.61%NM 16.78%16.8%2026-04-06 06:08