Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Atlético Madrid v CA Osasuna

Kickoff: 2026-09-16 17:00 UTC

Final: Atlético Madrid 4–0 CA Osasuna

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Atlético Madrid (Local)

Prediction 72.47%1.38fair odd
EV -2.17%
Edge -1.61%
Kelly -6.19%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.95%72.50%72.34%73.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.251.311.311.3580.00%76.39%76.63%74.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

CA Osasuna (Visit)

Prediction 9.84%10.16fair odd
EV +8.29%
Edge +0.753%
Kelly +0.829%
Growth +0.069%

assuming max odds 11.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.79%9.88%9.90%11.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.009.609.5011.0012.50%10.42%10.53%9.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 17.69%5.65fair odd
EV +4.36%
Edge +0.739%
Kelly +0.889%
Growth +0.039%

assuming max odds 5.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.86%17.62%17.76%19.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.705.245.255.9021.28%19.08%19.05%16.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Atlético Madrid (Local): 72.47%; CA Osasuna (Visit): 9.84%; Draw: 17.69%. For CA Osasuna (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.16. 12 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 11.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.29%.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 73.29%EV -4.34%E -3.29%K -13.57%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.79%EV +8.29%E +0.753%K +0.829%G +0.069%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.92%EV -4.49%E -0.831%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-16 16:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 73.29%EV -4.34%E -3.29%K -13.57%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.79%EV +8.29%E +0.753%K +0.829%G +0.069%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.92%EV -4.49%E -0.831%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-16 16:00
Pinnacle🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 72.87%EV -3.62%E -2.72%K -10.96%G +0.000%10.75I 9.30%NM 9.02%EV +5.82%E +0.542%K +0.597%G +0.035%5.35I 18.69%NM 18.12%EV -5.37%E -1.00%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.2%2026-09-16 16:46
Unibet (SE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 72.29%EV -2.17%E -1.61%K -6.19%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.29%EV +3.36%E +0.320%K +0.354%G +0.012%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.41%EV -6.25%E -1.18%K -1.45%G +0.000%2.5%2026-09-16 16:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 72.29%EV -2.17%E -1.61%K -6.19%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.29%EV +3.36%E +0.320%K +0.354%G +0.012%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.41%EV -6.25%E -1.18%K -1.45%G +0.000%2.5%2026-09-16 16:50
Svenska Spel🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 72.29%EV -2.17%E -1.61%K -6.19%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.29%EV +3.36%E +0.320%K +0.354%G +0.012%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.41%EV -6.25%E -1.18%K -1.45%G +0.000%2.5%2026-09-16 16:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 72.59%EV -3.62%E -2.72%K -10.96%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.19%EV +3.36%E +0.320%K +0.354%G +0.012%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.22%EV -6.25%E -1.18%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-16 16:50
SportsBet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.28%EV -5.79%E -4.45%K -19.30%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.07%EV +3.36%E +0.320%K +0.354%G +0.012%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.64%EV -4.49%E -0.831%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-16 16:55
FanDuel🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.28%EV -5.79%E -4.45%K -19.30%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.07%EV +3.36%E +0.320%K +0.354%G +0.012%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.64%EV -4.49%E -0.831%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-16 16:55
betano_uk🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.67%EV -6.52%E -5.05%K -22.47%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.05%EV +3.36%E +0.320%K +0.354%G +0.012%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.28%EV -2.72%E -0.494%K -0.604%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-16 16:49
Bet Victor🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.67%EV -6.52%E -5.05%K -22.47%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.05%EV +3.36%E +0.320%K +0.354%G +0.012%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.28%EV -2.72%E -0.494%K -0.604%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-16 16:51
NordicBet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.55%EV -5.07%E -3.87%K -16.34%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.93%EV +3.36%E +0.320%K +0.354%G +0.012%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.53%EV -15.10%E -3.15%K -3.97%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-16 16:45
1xBet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 73.22%EV -5.07%E -3.87%K -16.34%G +0.000%10.10I 9.90%NM 9.50%EV -0.575%E -0.057%K -0.063%G +0.000%5.55I 18.02%NM 17.28%EV -1.83%E -0.330%K -0.403%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-16 16:50
Coolbet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 71.96%EV -2.17%E -1.61%K -6.19%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.71%EV -1.56%E -0.156%K -0.173%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.33%EV -6.25%E -1.18%K -1.45%G +0.000%2.9%2026-09-16 15:55
Grosvenor🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.85%EV -2.89%E -2.16%K -8.51%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.63%EV -1.56%E -0.156%K -0.173%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.52%EV -8.02%E -1.54%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-16 16:50
betfred_uk🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.19%EV -5.79%E -4.45%K -19.30%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.51%EV -1.56%E -0.156%K -0.173%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.30%EV -2.72%E -0.494%K -0.604%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-16 16:55
Bovada🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.44%EV -5.07%E -3.87%K -16.34%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.49%EV -1.56%E -0.156%K -0.173%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.07%EV -7.14%E -1.36%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-16 16:56
DraftKings🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.44%EV -5.07%E -3.87%K -16.34%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.49%EV -1.56%E -0.156%K -0.173%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.07%EV -7.14%E -1.36%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-16 16:50
Sky Bet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.34%EV -6.52%E -5.05%K -22.47%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.46%EV -1.56%E -0.156%K -0.173%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.20%EV -2.72%E -0.494%K -0.604%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-16 16:50
theScore Bet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.34%EV -6.52%E -5.05%K -22.47%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.46%EV -1.56%E -0.156%K -0.173%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.20%EV -2.72%E -0.494%K -0.604%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-16 16:55
Betr (AU)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.59%EV -5.79%E -4.45%K -19.30%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.44%EV -1.56%E -0.156%K -0.173%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -7.14%E -1.36%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-16 16:55
Betway🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.59%EV -5.79%E -4.45%K -19.30%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.44%EV -1.56%E -0.156%K -0.173%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -7.14%E -1.36%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-16 16:50
Everygame🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.59%EV -5.79%E -4.45%K -19.30%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.44%EV -1.56%E -0.156%K -0.173%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -7.14%E -1.36%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-16 16:33
TAB🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.94%EV -5.79%E -4.45%K -19.30%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.35%EV -1.56%E -0.156%K -0.173%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV -11.56%E -2.31%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-16 16:45
Paddy Power🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.10%EV -6.52%E -5.05%K -22.47%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.30%EV -1.56%E -0.156%K -0.173%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -11.56%E -2.31%K -2.89%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-16 16:50
PlayUp🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.24%EV -5.79%E -4.45%K -19.30%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -1.56%E -0.156%K -0.173%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.50%EV -15.98%E -3.36%K -4.26%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-16 16:56
Marathon Bet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 72.33%EV -2.89%E -2.16%K -8.51%G +0.000%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.89%EV -3.53%E -0.360%K -0.401%G +0.000%5.45I 18.35%NM 17.78%EV -3.60%E -0.661%K -0.809%G +0.000%3.2%2026-09-16 16:54
BetRivers🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.39%EV -3.62%E -2.72%K -10.96%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.99%EV -6.48%E -0.682%K -0.762%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.62%EV -9.79%E -1.92%K -2.39%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-16 16:50
Casumo🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.39%EV -3.62%E -2.72%K -10.96%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.99%EV -6.48%E -0.682%K -0.762%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.62%EV -9.79%E -1.92%K -2.39%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-16 16:50
Bally Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.39%EV -3.62%E -2.72%K -10.96%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.99%EV -6.48%E -0.682%K -0.762%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.62%EV -9.79%E -1.92%K -2.39%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-16 16:50
betPARX🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.39%EV -3.62%E -2.72%K -10.96%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.99%EV -6.48%E -0.682%K -0.762%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.62%EV -9.79%E -1.92%K -2.39%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-16 16:50
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.12%EV -3.62%E -2.72%K -10.96%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.96%EV -6.48%E -0.682%K -0.762%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -11.56%E -2.31%K -2.89%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-16 16:50
Tipico (DE)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.57%EV -7.24%E -5.66%K -25.86%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.91%EV -6.48%E -0.682%K -0.762%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.52%EV +0.820%E +0.144%K +0.175%G +0.001%6.2%2026-09-16 16:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.97%EV -6.52%E -5.05%K -22.47%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.91%EV -6.48%E -0.682%K -0.762%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.12%EV -2.72%E -0.494%K -0.604%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-16 16:55
Bet Right🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.13%EV -7.24%E -5.66%K -25.86%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.85%EV -6.48%E -0.682%K -0.762%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.02%EV -2.72%E -0.494%K -0.604%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-16 16:56
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.38%EV -9.41%E -7.53%K -37.66%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.52%EV -6.48%E -0.682%K -0.762%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -11.56%E -2.31%K -2.89%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-16 16:50
Codere (IT)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.40%EV -5.79%E -4.45%K -19.30%G +0.000%9.40I 10.64%NM 10.15%EV -7.47%E -0.794%K -0.889%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.45%EV +2.59%E +0.446%K +0.539%G +0.014%4.8%2026-09-16 16:55
Fliff🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.14%EV -7.97%E -6.27%K -29.50%G +0.000%9.10I 10.99%NM 10.07%EV -10.42%E -1.14%K -1.29%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 17.79%EV -8.91%E -1.73%K -2.15%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-16 16:55
BetMGM🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.27%EV -5.07%E -3.87%K -16.34%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.52%EV -11.40%E -1.27%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.21%EV -2.72%E -0.494%K -0.604%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-16 16:56
LiveScore Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.73%EV -3.62%E -2.72%K -10.96%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -11.40%E -1.27%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -11.56%E -2.31%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-16 16:50
Fanatics🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.68%EV -5.07%E -3.87%K -16.34%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.43%EV -11.40%E -1.27%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.89%EV -7.14%E -1.36%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-16 16:05
Virgin Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.18%EV -3.62%E -2.72%K -10.96%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.37%EV -11.40%E -1.27%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.45%EV -15.10%E -3.15%K -3.97%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-16 16:50
Unibet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.62%EV -4.34%E -3.29%K -13.57%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -11.40%E -1.27%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.02%EV -13.33%E -2.72%K -3.42%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-16 16:50
LeoVegas🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.99%EV -6.52%E -5.05%K -22.47%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.32%EV -11.40%E -1.27%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.69%EV -7.14%E -1.36%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-16 16:56
William Hill🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.20%EV -5.79%E -4.45%K -19.30%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.28%EV -11.40%E -1.27%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%EV -11.56%E -2.31%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-16 16:56
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.20%EV -5.79%E -4.45%K -19.30%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.28%EV -11.40%E -1.27%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%EV -11.56%E -2.31%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-16 16:56
BoyleSports🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.36%EV -6.52%E -5.05%K -22.47%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.23%EV -11.40%E -1.27%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.41%EV -11.56%E -2.31%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-16 16:40
NetBet (FR)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 71.78%EV -7.24%E -5.66%K -25.86%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.21%EV -11.40%E -1.27%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.01%EV -9.79%E -1.92%K -2.39%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-16 16:56
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.66%EV -5.79%E -4.45%K -19.30%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.21%EV -11.40%E -1.27%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.14%EV -15.10%E -3.15%K -3.97%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-16 16:50
TABtouch🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.66%EV -5.79%E -4.45%K -19.30%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.21%EV -11.40%E -1.27%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.14%EV -15.10%E -3.15%K -3.97%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-16 16:50
Coral🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.52%EV -3.62%E -2.72%K -10.96%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.19%EV -16.33%E -1.92%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -2.72%E -0.494%K -0.604%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-16 16:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.93%EV -3.62%E -2.72%K -10.96%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.10%EV -16.33%E -1.92%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -7.14%E -1.36%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-16 16:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.81%EV -3.62%E -2.72%K -10.96%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.08%EV -16.33%E -1.92%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.11%EV -8.02%E -1.54%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-16 16:40
Neds🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.81%EV -3.62%E -2.72%K -10.96%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.08%EV -16.33%E -1.92%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.11%EV -8.02%E -1.54%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-16 16:40
Winamax (DE)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.12%EV -7.24%E -5.66%K -25.86%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.01%EV -16.33%E -1.92%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.86%EV +4.36%E +0.739%K +0.889%G +0.039%6.8%2026-09-16 16:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.24%EV -5.07%E -3.87%K -16.34%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.98%EV -16.33%E -1.92%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.78%EV -7.14%E -1.36%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-16 16:56
PMU (FR)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.95%EV -5.79%E -4.45%K -19.30%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.70%EV -16.33%E -1.92%K -2.18%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.35%EV -16.87%E -3.59%K -4.56%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-16 16:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.17%EV -7.97%E -6.27%K -29.50%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.46%EV -21.25%E -2.66%K -3.04%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.37%EV -0.948%E -0.169%K -0.206%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-16 16:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎1.35I 74.07%NM 74.11%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.34%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.55%-0.0%2026-09-16 16:56
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.35I 74.07%NM 73.84%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.67%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.49%0.3%2026-09-16 16:56
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.35I 74.07%NM 73.84%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.67%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.49%0.3%2026-09-16 16:56
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.35I 74.07%NM 73.84%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.67%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.49%0.3%2026-09-16 16:56
Smarkets◎1.34I 74.63%NM 73.70%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.98%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.33%1.3%2026-09-16 16:50
Kalshi◎1.33I 75.19%NM 73.59%11.11I 9.00%NM 8.81%5.56I 17.99%NM 17.60%2.2%2026-09-16 16:50