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Atlético Madrid v Barcelona

2026-11-08 20:00 UTC — La Liga - Spain

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Atlético Madrid (Local)

Prediction 26.01%3.84fair odd
EV +0.913%
Edge +0.235%
Kelly +0.317%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 3.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.19%25.93%26.08%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.613.603.8829.41%27.69%27.78%25.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Barcelona (Visit)

Prediction 51.31%1.95fair odd
EV -2.01%
Edge -1.05%
Kelly -2.21%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.11%51.46%51.11%52.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.661.801.831.9160.24%55.45%54.79%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.69%4.41fair odd
EV -0.180%
Edge -0.041%
Kelly -0.053%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.08%22.62%22.82%23.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.144.204.4026.32%24.15%23.84%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Atlético Madrid (Local): 26.01%; Barcelona (Visit): 51.31%; Draw: 22.69%. For Atlético Madrid (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.84. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 3.88, producing a positive expected value of +0.913%.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯3.88I 25.77%NM 25.37%EV +0.913%E +0.235%K +0.317%G +0.003%1.91I 52.36%NM 51.53%EV -2.01%E -1.05%K -2.21%G +0.000%4.26I 23.47%NM 23.10%EV -3.36%E -0.788%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.6%2026-10-25 21:36
Unibet (UK)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.26%EV -1.17%E -0.307%K -0.417%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.69%EV -10.22%E -5.84%K -13.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -9.25%E -2.31%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-25 20:40
picklebet_au🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.19%EV -1.17%E -0.307%K -0.417%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.53%EV -10.22%E -5.84%K -13.62%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.27%EV -10.39%E -2.63%K -3.52%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-25 20:40
Marathon Bet🎯3.78I 26.46%NM 25.36%EV -1.69%E -0.447%K -0.607%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 51.54%EV -4.57%E -2.46%K -5.32%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.10%EV -5.85%E -1.41%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-25 21:30
William Hill🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.72%EV -2.47%E -0.658%K -0.897%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.51%EV -7.65%E -4.25%K -9.56%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV -11.52%E -2.95%K -3.97%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-25 20:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.72%EV -2.47%E -0.658%K -0.897%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.51%EV -7.65%E -4.25%K -9.56%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV -11.52%E -2.95%K -3.97%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-25 20:50
LeoVegas🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -2.47%E -0.658%K -0.897%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.80%EV -11.24%E -6.50%K -15.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -9.25%E -2.31%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-25 20:40
Tipico (DE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.54%EV -3.77%E -1.02%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.49%EV -7.65%E -4.25%K -9.56%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.97%EV -2.45%E -0.569%K -0.742%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-26 00:35
Winamax (DE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -3.77%E -1.02%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 52.78%EV -10.73%E -6.17%K -14.50%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.40%EV -6.99%E -1.70%K -2.25%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-25 20:40
Pinnacle🎯3.62I 27.62%NM 26.25%EV -5.85%E -1.62%K -2.23%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 51.08%EV -4.57%E -2.46%K -5.32%G +0.000%4.19I 23.87%NM 22.67%EV -4.94%E -1.18%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-26 00:40
SportsBet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -6.37%E -1.77%K -2.45%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -6.11%E -3.34%K -7.36%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.61%EV -0.180%E -0.041%K -0.053%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-25 22:50
betfred_uk🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -6.37%E -1.77%K -2.45%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.79%EV -6.11%E -3.34%K -7.36%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.89%EV -1.77%E -0.408%K -0.531%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-25 22:20
Betr (AU)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -6.37%E -1.77%K -2.45%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.85%EV -6.62%E -3.64%K -8.08%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.94%EV -2.45%E -0.569%K -0.742%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-25 22:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.14%EV -6.37%E -1.77%K -2.45%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.33%EV -4.06%E -2.17%K -4.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -9.25%E -2.31%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-26 01:11
Betclic (FR)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.37%EV -6.37%E -1.77%K -2.45%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 52.54%EV -14.32%E -8.58%K -21.37%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.09%EV -13.79%E -3.63%K -4.93%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-25 20:50
Coral🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.03%EV -8.97%E -2.56%K -3.59%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.13%EV -5.09%E -2.75%K -5.98%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.85%EV -1.77%E -0.408%K -0.531%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-26 01:12
BetMGM🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.03%EV -8.97%E -2.56%K -3.59%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.13%EV -5.09%E -2.75%K -5.98%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.85%EV -1.77%E -0.408%K -0.531%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-26 01:11
Fanatics🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.84%EV -8.97%E -2.56%K -3.59%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.24%EV -4.06%E -2.17%K -4.67%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -6.99%E -1.70%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-25 20:58
Neds🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -8.97%E -2.56%K -3.59%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.19%EV -6.11%E -3.34%K -7.36%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.04%EV -3.58%E -0.843%K -1.10%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-26 01:11
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -8.97%E -2.56%K -3.59%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.19%EV -6.11%E -3.34%K -7.36%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.04%EV -3.58%E -0.843%K -1.10%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-26 01:12
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -8.97%E -2.56%K -3.59%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.06%EV -6.11%E -3.34%K -7.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV -4.72%E -1.12%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-26 01:11
FanDuel🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -8.97%E -2.56%K -3.59%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.41%EV -9.19%E -5.19%K -11.94%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.08%EV -0.180%E -0.041%K -0.053%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-25 22:50
Sky Bet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -8.97%E -2.56%K -3.59%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.47%EV -7.65%E -4.25%K -9.56%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.06%EV -4.72%E -1.12%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-25 23:00
Paddy Power🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -8.97%E -2.56%K -3.59%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.17%EV -10.22%E -5.84%K -13.62%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -4.72%E -1.12%K -1.47%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-25 22:50
Winamax (FR)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 25.09%EV -10.27%E -2.98%K -4.19%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 52.14%EV -14.83%E -8.94%K -22.48%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.78%EV -13.79%E -3.63%K -4.93%G +0.000%15.5%2026-10-25 20:40
Betway🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -11.57%E -3.40%K -4.82%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.11%EV -6.11%E -3.34%K -7.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -9.25%E -2.31%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-25 22:37
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎3.85I 25.97%NM 25.50%1.89I 52.91%NM 51.94%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.57%1.9%2026-10-25 23:35