The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Atlético Madrid v Barcelona

Kickoff: 2026-11-08 20:00 UTC

Final: Atlético Madrid 1–2 Barcelona

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

51 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Atlético Madrid (Local)

Prediction 27.33%3.66fair odd
EV +4.95%
Edge +1.29%
Kelly +1.74%
Growth +0.086%

assuming max odds 3.84

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.00%27.33%27.34%28.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.473.503.8432.26%28.79%28.57%26.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Barcelona (Visit)

Prediction 50.97%1.96fair odd
EV -1.63%
Edge -0.847%
Kelly -1.76%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.93

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.91%51.09%50.92%53.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.841.851.9358.82%54.37%54.05%51.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.70%4.61fair odd
EV +3.09%
Edge +0.650%
Kelly +0.823%
Growth +0.025%

assuming max odds 4.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.73%21.58%21.74%23.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.354.334.7525.00%22.99%23.09%21.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Atlético Madrid (Local): 27.33%; Barcelona (Visit): 50.97%; Draw: 21.70%. For Atlético Madrid (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.66. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.84, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.95%.

Sportsbook Odds (51 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯3.84I 26.04%NM 25.00%EV +4.95%E +1.29%K +1.74%G +0.086%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.94%EV -9.28%E -5.21%K -11.90%G +0.000%4.56I 21.93%NM 21.06%EV -1.04%E -0.227%K -0.291%G +0.000%4.2%2026-11-08 19:55
Marathon Bet🎯3.76I 26.60%NM 25.79%EV +2.76%E +0.735%K +1.00%G +0.028%1.85I 54.05%NM 52.42%EV -5.71%E -3.09%K -6.72%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.79%EV -3.42%E -0.769%K -0.992%G +0.000%3.1%2026-11-08 19:55
Unibet (SE)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 26.05%EV +2.49%E +0.664%K +0.905%G +0.023%1.83I 54.64%NM 53.38%EV -6.73%E -3.68%K -8.11%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.57%EV +3.09%E +0.650%K +0.823%G +0.025%2.4%2026-11-08 19:55
Unibet (NL)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.90%EV +2.49%E +0.664%K +0.905%G +0.023%1.81I 55.25%NM 53.66%EV -7.75%E -4.28%K -9.57%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.45%EV +3.09%E +0.650%K +0.823%G +0.025%3.0%2026-11-08 19:55
BetRivers🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.36%EV -1.61%E -0.447%K -0.619%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.01%EV -8.77%E -4.90%K -11.10%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.63%EV -0.168%E -0.037%K -0.047%G +0.000%5.4%2026-11-08 19:40
Casumo🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.36%EV -1.61%E -0.447%K -0.619%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.01%EV -8.77%E -4.90%K -11.10%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.63%EV -0.168%E -0.037%K -0.047%G +0.000%5.4%2026-11-08 19:40
DraftKings🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.29%EV -1.61%E -0.447%K -0.619%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.71%EV -6.73%E -3.68%K -8.11%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.01%EV -6.68%E -1.55%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.7%2026-11-08 19:55
Betsson🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -1.61%E -0.447%K -0.619%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.85%EV -7.24%E -3.98%K -8.83%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.94%EV -6.68%E -1.55%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.0%2026-11-08 19:55
LiveScore Bet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -1.61%E -0.447%K -0.619%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -9.28%E -5.21%K -11.90%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.93%EV -2.34%E -0.520%K -0.668%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-08 19:55
NordicBet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.14%EV -1.61%E -0.447%K -0.619%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.71%EV -7.24%E -3.98%K -8.83%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.14%EV -7.76%E -1.83%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-08 19:55
Codere (IT)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.86%EV -2.98%E -0.838%K -1.17%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.44%EV -3.67%E -1.94%K -4.13%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.70%EV -8.85%E -2.11%K -2.77%G +0.000%4.9%2026-11-08 19:55
Unibet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.35%EV -2.98%E -0.838%K -1.17%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.86%EV -9.79%E -5.53%K -12.71%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.79%EV -2.34%E -0.520%K -0.668%G +0.000%6.9%2026-11-08 19:40
Grosvenor🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.35%EV -2.98%E -0.838%K -1.17%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.86%EV -9.79%E -5.53%K -12.71%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.79%EV -2.34%E -0.520%K -0.668%G +0.000%6.9%2026-11-08 19:40
Virgin Bet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.23%EV -2.98%E -0.838%K -1.17%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.61%EV -9.79%E -5.53%K -12.71%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.16%EV -4.51%E -1.02%K -1.33%G +0.000%7.4%2026-11-08 19:40
Pinnacle🎯3.54I 28.25%NM 27.55%EV -3.25%E -0.918%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 50.53%EV -1.63%E -0.847%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.92%EV -3.42%E -0.769%K -0.992%G +0.000%2.5%2026-11-08 19:55
LowVig.ag🎯3.52I 28.41%NM 27.45%EV -3.80%E -1.08%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.85%EV -3.16%E -1.66%K -3.51%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.71%EV -3.42%E -0.769%K -0.992%G +0.000%3.5%2026-11-08 19:40
BetOnline.ag🎯3.52I 28.41%NM 27.45%EV -3.80%E -1.08%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.85%EV -3.16%E -1.66%K -3.51%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.71%EV -3.42%E -0.769%K -0.992%G +0.000%3.5%2026-11-08 19:40
Coolbet🎯3.51I 28.49%NM 27.64%EV -4.07%E -1.16%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.80%EV -2.65%E -1.39%K -2.92%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.56%EV -2.34%E -0.520%K -0.668%G +0.000%3.1%2026-11-08 19:55
FanDuel🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.27%EV -4.34%E -1.24%K -1.74%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.04%EV -4.69%E -2.51%K -5.39%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.69%EV -4.51%E -1.02%K -1.33%G +0.000%4.8%2026-11-08 19:55
Unibet (UK)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -4.34%E -1.24%K -1.74%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.52%EV -4.18%E -2.22%K -4.75%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.35%EV -7.76%E -1.83%K -2.39%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-08 19:54
Bovada🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.13%EV -4.34%E -1.24%K -1.74%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.78%EV -4.69%E -2.51%K -5.39%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.08%EV -6.68%E -1.55%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-08 19:54
SportsBet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -4.34%E -1.24%K -1.74%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 50.92%EV -5.20%E -2.80%K -6.05%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.02%EV -6.68%E -1.55%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-08 19:55
picklebet_au🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.99%EV -4.34%E -1.24%K -1.74%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.52%EV -4.69%E -2.51%K -5.39%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.49%EV -8.85%E -2.11%K -2.77%G +0.000%5.9%2026-11-08 19:55
Tipico (DE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -4.34%E -1.24%K -1.74%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.58%EV -6.73%E -3.68%K -8.11%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.45%EV -4.51%E -1.02%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.9%2026-11-08 19:20
betfred_uk🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -4.34%E -1.24%K -1.74%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.40%EV -6.73%E -3.68%K -8.11%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.72%EV -6.03%E -1.39%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-08 19:20
William Hill🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.40%EV -4.34%E -1.24%K -1.74%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.50%EV -6.73%E -3.68%K -8.11%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.10%EV -13.19%E -3.30%K -4.40%G +0.000%8.2%2026-11-08 19:20
Everygame🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.68%EV -5.71%E -1.65%K -2.33%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.26%EV -3.16%E -1.66%K -3.51%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.06%EV -6.03%E -1.39%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.7%2026-11-08 19:54
BetUS🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.56%EV -5.71%E -1.65%K -2.33%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.84%EV -4.69%E -2.51%K -5.39%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.61%EV -4.51%E -1.02%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.2%2026-11-08 19:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.56%EV -5.71%E -1.65%K -2.33%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.37%EV -10.81%E -6.18%K -14.41%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.07%EV -5.59%E -1.29%K -1.67%G +0.000%9.1%2026-11-08 19:40
TABtouch🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.56%EV -5.71%E -1.65%K -2.33%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.37%EV -10.81%E -6.18%K -14.41%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.07%EV -5.59%E -1.29%K -1.67%G +0.000%9.1%2026-11-08 19:40
Fanatics🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 28.43%EV -7.08%E -2.08%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 50.09%EV -1.63%E -0.847%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.48%EV -2.34%E -0.520%K -0.668%G +0.000%3.4%2026-11-08 19:25
Coral🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 28.05%EV -7.08%E -2.08%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.93%EV -2.65%E -1.39%K -2.92%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.02%EV -6.03%E -1.39%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.9%2026-11-08 19:40
BetMGM🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 28.05%EV -7.08%E -2.08%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.93%EV -2.65%E -1.39%K -2.92%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.02%EV -6.03%E -1.39%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.9%2026-11-08 19:40
Sky Bet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -7.08%E -2.08%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.63%EV -4.69%E -2.51%K -5.39%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.52%EV -4.51%E -1.02%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-08 19:25
Betway🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -7.08%E -2.08%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.32%EV -4.18%E -2.22%K -4.75%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.85%EV -6.03%E -1.39%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.7%2026-11-08 19:39
Betr (AU)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.70%EV -7.08%E -2.08%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.90%EV -5.71%E -3.09%K -6.72%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.40%EV -4.51%E -1.02%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-08 19:20
Bet Right🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.62%EV -7.08%E -2.08%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.91%EV -2.14%E -1.12%K -2.33%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.48%EV -13.19%E -3.30%K -4.40%G +0.000%6.5%2026-11-08 19:55
TAB🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -7.08%E -2.08%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.52%EV -5.71%E -3.09%K -6.72%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.99%EV -7.76%E -1.83%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-08 19:55
LeoVegas🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -7.08%E -2.08%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.39%EV -5.71%E -3.09%K -6.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -8.85%E -2.11%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.3%2026-11-08 19:40
Winamax (DE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -7.08%E -2.08%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.06%EV -7.24%E -3.98%K -8.83%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.61%EV -6.68%E -1.55%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.6%2026-11-08 19:55
Paddy Power🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -7.08%E -2.08%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.66%EV -6.73%E -3.68%K -8.11%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.07%EV -8.85%E -2.11%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.9%2026-11-08 19:55
PlayUp🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -7.08%E -2.08%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.39%EV -6.73%E -3.68%K -8.11%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -11.02%E -2.69%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.4%2026-11-08 19:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -7.08%E -2.08%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -8.26%E -4.59%K -10.32%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -8.85%E -2.11%K -2.77%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-08 19:55
PMU (FR)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.56%EV -7.08%E -2.08%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.20%EV -11.83%E -6.84%K -16.20%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.25%EV -7.76%E -1.83%K -2.39%G +0.000%10.7%2026-11-08 19:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.54%EV -9.81%E -2.97%K -4.26%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.56%EV -3.16%E -1.66%K -3.51%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.90%EV -6.68%E -1.55%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-08 19:55
Neds🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -9.81%E -2.97%K -4.26%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -2.65%E -1.39%K -2.92%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.36%EV -8.85%E -2.11%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.5%2026-11-08 19:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -9.81%E -2.97%K -4.26%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -2.65%E -1.39%K -2.92%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.36%EV -8.85%E -2.11%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.5%2026-11-08 19:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -9.81%E -2.97%K -4.26%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -2.65%E -1.39%K -2.92%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.36%EV -8.85%E -2.11%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.5%2026-11-08 19:40
Betclic (FR)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.27%EV -11.18%E -3.44%K -4.97%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 52.13%EV -13.36%E -7.86%K -19.08%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.61%EV -6.68%E -1.55%K -2.02%G +0.000%12.8%2026-11-08 19:40
BoyleSports🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.69%EV -12.54%E -3.92%K -5.70%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 51.22%EV -11.83%E -6.84%K -16.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.10%EV -8.85%E -2.11%K -2.77%G +0.000%12.9%2026-11-08 18:10
Winamax (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.64%EV -15.28%E -4.93%K -7.27%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 51.62%EV -12.34%E -7.17%K -17.13%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.73%EV -2.34%E -0.520%K -0.668%G +0.000%12.6%2026-11-08 17:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎3.70I 27.03%NM 26.92%1.92I 52.08%NM 51.88%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.19%0.4%2026-11-08 19:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.70I 27.03%NM 26.87%1.93I 51.81%NM 51.51%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.61%0.6%2026-11-08 19:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.70I 27.03%NM 26.87%1.93I 51.81%NM 51.51%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.61%0.6%2026-11-08 19:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.70I 27.03%NM 26.87%1.93I 51.81%NM 51.51%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.61%0.6%2026-11-08 19:55
Smarkets◎3.65I 27.40%NM 27.07%1.92I 52.08%NM 51.46%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.48%1.2%2026-11-08 19:55

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