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Athletic Bilbao v Sevilla

2026-08-22 15:00 UTC — La Liga - Spain

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Athletic Bilbao (Local)

Prediction 58.55%1.71fair odd
EV -1.64%
Edge -0.974%
Kelly -2.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.89%58.74%58.27%60.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.521.591.591.6865.79%63.01%62.89%59.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sevilla (Visit)

Prediction 16.59%6.03fair odd
EV +3.69%
Edge +0.590%
Kelly +0.703%
Growth +0.026%

assuming max odds 6.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.21%16.44%16.91%18.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.705.645.606.2521.28%17.73%17.86%16.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.86%4.02fair odd
EV -2.55%
Edge -0.650%
Kelly -0.873%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.10%24.82%24.82%25.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.723.753.9228.57%26.85%26.67%25.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Athletic Bilbao (Local): 58.55%; Sevilla (Visit): 16.59%; Draw: 24.86%. For Sevilla (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.03. 2 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 6.25, producing a positive expected value of +3.69%.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
SportsBet1.59I 62.89%NM 59.78%EV -6.91%E -4.34%K -11.70%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.21%EV +3.69%E +0.590%K +0.703%G +0.026%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.01%EV -5.53%E -1.46%K -1.98%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-02 11:00
1xBet1.68I 59.52%NM 58.65%EV -1.64%E -0.974%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.08I 16.45%NM 16.21%EV +0.868%E +0.143%K +0.171%G +0.001%3.92I 25.51%NM 25.14%EV -2.55%E -0.650%K -0.873%G +0.000%1.5%2026-08-02 10:58
Coolbet1.60I 62.50%NM 59.44%EV -6.32%E -3.95%K -10.53%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -0.459%E -0.077%K -0.092%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.70%EV -4.29%E -1.11%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-02 11:00
betfred_uk1.60I 62.50%NM 59.06%EV -6.32%E -3.95%K -10.53%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.75%EV -0.459%E -0.077%K -0.092%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.20%EV -6.78%E -1.81%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-02 11:05
Betr (AU)1.58I 63.29%NM 59.55%EV -7.49%E -4.74%K -12.92%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.68%EV -0.459%E -0.077%K -0.092%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.76%EV -5.53%E -1.46%K -1.98%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-02 10:59
Sky Bet1.57I 63.69%NM 59.51%EV -8.08%E -5.14%K -14.17%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.57%EV -0.459%E -0.077%K -0.092%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.92%EV -6.78%E -1.81%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-02 10:59
Paddy Power1.57I 63.69%NM 59.51%EV -8.08%E -5.14%K -14.17%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.57%EV -0.459%E -0.077%K -0.092%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.92%EV -6.78%E -1.81%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-02 10:59
FanDuel1.53I 65.36%NM 60.33%EV -10.42%E -6.81%K -19.66%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -0.459%E -0.077%K -0.092%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV -5.53%E -1.46%K -1.98%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-02 11:00
Codere (IT)1.64I 60.98%NM 58.18%EV -3.98%E -2.43%K -6.22%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV -7.10%E -1.27%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.78%EV -4.29%E -1.11%K -1.51%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-02 11:35
William Hill1.62I 61.73%NM 57.32%EV -5.15%E -3.18%K -8.30%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.88%EV -8.75%E -1.59%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -10.50%E -2.92%K -4.04%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-02 11:44
Unibet (UK)1.60I 62.50%NM 58.03%EV -6.32%E -3.95%K -10.53%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.88%EV -8.75%E -1.59%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -8.02%E -2.17%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-02 11:35
Mr Green (SE)1.61I 62.11%NM 57.47%EV -5.73%E -3.56%K -9.40%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.82%EV -8.75%E -1.59%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -10.50%E -2.92%K -4.04%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-02 11:45
Betclic (FR)1.55I 64.52%NM 57.74%EV -9.25%E -5.97%K -16.81%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.05%EV -12.90%E -2.46%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.21%EV -11.75%E -3.31%K -4.61%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-02 11:33
LeoVegas1.60I 62.50%NM 57.47%EV -6.32%E -3.95%K -10.53%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.68%EV -13.73%E -2.64%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.85%EV -8.02%E -2.17%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-02 11:00
Unibet (FR)1.54I 64.94%NM 58.01%EV -9.83%E -6.39%K -18.21%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.18%EV -13.73%E -2.64%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.81%EV -10.50%E -2.92%K -4.04%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-02 11:09
Winamax (DE)1.58I 63.29%NM 57.95%EV -7.49%E -4.74%K -12.92%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.95%EV -15.39%E -3.02%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.10%EV -5.53%E -1.46%K -1.98%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-02 11:30
Winamax (FR)1.52I 65.79%NM 56.89%EV -11.00%E -7.24%K -21.16%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.40%EV -22.03%E -4.69%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.71%EV -12.99%E -3.71%K -5.20%G +0.000%15.6%2026-08-02 11:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.52I 65.79%NM 56.27%4.80I 20.83%NM 17.82%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.92%16.9%2026-08-02 11:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.62I 61.73%NM 49.88%3.80I 26.32%NM 21.26%2.80I 35.71%NM 28.86%23.8%2026-08-02 12:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.62I 61.73%NM 49.88%3.80I 26.32%NM 21.26%2.80I 35.71%NM 28.86%23.8%2026-08-02 12:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.62I 61.73%NM 49.88%3.80I 26.32%NM 21.26%2.80I 35.71%NM 28.86%23.8%2026-08-02 12:45