La escuela de los momios

Athletic Bilbao v CA Osasuna

Inicio: 2026-04-21 17:04 UTC

Final: Athletic Bilbao 1–0 CA Osasuna

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

58 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Athletic Bilbao (Local)

Predicción 51.01%1.96momio equitativo
EV -1.03%
Ventaja -0.533%
Kelly -1.10%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.94

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
49.07%51.16%50.89%53.43%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.731.851.851.9457.80%54.13%54.05%51.55%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

CA Osasuna (Visitante)

Predicción 21.47%4.66momio equitativo
EV +1.35%
Ventaja +0.286%
Kelly +0.363%
Crecimiento +0.005%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.72

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.49%21.53%21.42%23.05%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.754.384.414.7226.67%22.81%22.70%21.19%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 27.51%3.63momio equitativo
EV +4.55%
Ventaja +1.20%
Kelly +1.63%
Crecimiento +0.074%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.88%27.31%27.69%28.37%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.443.403.8033.33%29.08%29.41%26.32%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
Winamax (DE)1.78I 56.18%NM 53.12%EV -9.20%E -5.17%K -11.79%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.99%EV -7.67%E -1.78%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.88%EV +4.55%E +1.20%K +1.63%G +0.074%5.8%2026-04-21 17:01
theScore Bet1.77I 56.50%NM 53.43%EV -9.71%E -5.48%K -12.61%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.01%EV -3.37%E -0.750%K -0.964%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.56%EV +1.80%E +0.487%K +0.667%G +0.012%5.7%2026-04-21 17:00
Winamax (FR)1.76I 56.82%NM 52.78%EV -10.22%E -5.80%K -13.44%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.12%EV -9.82%E -2.34%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.11%EV +1.80%E +0.487%K +0.667%G +0.012%7.7%2026-04-21 17:01
Coral1.85I 54.05%NM 51.17%EV -5.63%E -3.04%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.54%EV -9.82%E -2.34%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.29%EV -0.949%E -0.264%K -0.365%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-21 17:01
BetMGM1.85I 54.05%NM 51.17%EV -5.63%E -3.04%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.54%EV -9.82%E -2.34%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.29%EV -0.949%E -0.264%K -0.365%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-21 17:00
Ladbrokes (UK)1.83I 54.64%NM 51.44%EV -6.65%E -3.63%K -8.01%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.41%EV -9.82%E -2.34%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -0.949%E -0.264%K -0.365%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-21 17:01
Neds1.82I 54.95%NM 51.58%EV -7.16%E -3.93%K -8.73%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.35%EV -9.82%E -2.34%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -0.949%E -0.264%K -0.365%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-21 16:59
Ladbrokes (AU)1.82I 54.95%NM 51.58%EV -7.16%E -3.93%K -8.73%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.35%EV -9.82%E -2.34%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -0.949%E -0.264%K -0.365%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-21 16:59
Pinnacle1.86I 53.76%NM 52.30%EV -5.12%E -2.75%K -5.95%G +0.000%4.72I 21.19%NM 20.61%EV +1.35%E +0.286%K +0.363%G +0.005%3.59I 27.86%NM 27.10%EV -1.22%E -0.341%K -0.473%G +0.000%2.8%2026-04-21 16:59
LowVig.ag1.85I 54.05%NM 52.27%EV -5.63%E -3.04%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.72I 21.19%NM 20.49%EV +1.35%E +0.286%K +0.363%G +0.005%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.24%EV -2.33%E -0.655%K -0.912%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-21 17:00
BetOnline.ag1.85I 54.05%NM 52.27%EV -5.63%E -3.04%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.72I 21.19%NM 20.49%EV +1.35%E +0.286%K +0.363%G +0.005%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.24%EV -2.33%E -0.655%K -0.912%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-21 17:01
NordicBet1.90I 52.63%NM 50.17%EV -3.07%E -1.62%K -3.42%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.97%EV -10.89%E -2.62%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.85%EV -2.33%E -0.655%K -0.912%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-21 17:00
Betsson1.90I 52.63%NM 50.17%EV -3.07%E -1.62%K -3.42%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.97%EV -10.89%E -2.62%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.85%EV -2.33%E -0.655%K -0.912%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-21 17:01
Codere (IT)1.88I 53.19%NM 50.65%EV -4.09%E -2.18%K -4.65%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.14%EV -7.67%E -1.78%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.21%EV -3.70%E -1.06%K -1.48%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-21 17:01
Sky Bet1.83I 54.64%NM 51.83%EV -6.65%E -3.63%K -8.01%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.08%EV -3.37%E -0.750%K -0.964%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.10%EV -3.70%E -1.06%K -1.48%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-21 17:01
Tipico (DE)1.83I 54.64%NM 51.58%EV -6.65%E -3.63%K -8.01%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.45%EV -5.52%E -1.25%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -3.70%E -1.06%K -1.48%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-21 17:00
betfred_uk1.83I 54.64%NM 51.40%EV -6.65%E -3.63%K -8.01%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.72%EV -7.02%E -1.62%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -3.70%E -1.06%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-21 16:59
Unibet (FR)1.78I 56.18%NM 52.52%EV -9.20%E -5.17%K -11.79%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -3.37%E -0.750%K -0.964%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -3.70%E -1.06%K -1.48%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-21 17:00
Betr (AU)1.82I 54.95%NM 51.33%EV -7.16%E -3.93%K -8.73%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.98%EV -8.74%E -2.06%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -3.70%E -1.06%K -1.48%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-21 16:59
Bet Right1.81I 55.25%NM 51.33%EV -7.67%E -4.24%K -9.46%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.12%EV -9.82%E -2.34%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -3.70%E -1.06%K -1.48%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-21 16:59
Betclic (FR)1.78I 56.18%NM 52.01%EV -9.20%E -5.17%K -11.79%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.53%EV -7.67%E -1.78%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.45%EV -3.70%E -1.06%K -1.48%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-21 17:00
1xBet1.94I 51.55%NM 49.98%EV -1.03%E -0.533%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.41I 22.68%NM 21.99%EV -5.31%E -1.20%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 28.03%EV -4.80%E -1.39%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-21 16:59
Coolbet1.90I 52.63%NM 51.04%EV -3.07%E -1.62%K -3.42%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.85%EV -0.153%E -0.033%K -0.042%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.11%EV -5.08%E -1.47%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-21 16:59
Unibet (NL)1.89I 52.91%NM 51.28%EV -3.58%E -1.90%K -4.03%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.62%EV +0.921%E +0.196%K +0.249%G +0.002%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.09%EV -5.08%E -1.47%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-21 17:00
Unibet (SE)1.89I 52.91%NM 51.05%EV -3.58%E -1.90%K -4.03%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.98%EV -1.23%E -0.267%K -0.341%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.97%EV -5.08%E -1.47%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.6%2026-04-21 17:00
Svenska Spel1.89I 52.91%NM 51.05%EV -3.58%E -1.90%K -4.03%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.98%EV -1.23%E -0.267%K -0.341%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.97%EV -5.08%E -1.47%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.6%2026-04-21 17:01
ATG (SE)1.89I 52.91%NM 51.05%EV -3.58%E -1.90%K -4.03%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.98%EV -1.23%E -0.267%K -0.341%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.97%EV -5.08%E -1.47%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.6%2026-04-21 17:01
Marathon Bet1.94I 51.55%NM 50.00%EV -1.03%E -0.533%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.80%EV -4.45%E -0.999%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 28.20%EV -5.35%E -1.56%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-21 16:59
Grosvenor1.87I 53.48%NM 51.11%EV -4.60%E -2.46%K -5.29%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.78%EV -1.23%E -0.267%K -0.341%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.11%EV -6.45%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-21 17:01
Casumo1.87I 53.48%NM 51.11%EV -4.60%E -2.46%K -5.29%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.78%EV -1.23%E -0.267%K -0.341%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.11%EV -6.45%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-21 17:00
betPARX1.87I 53.48%NM 51.11%EV -4.60%E -2.46%K -5.29%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.78%EV -1.23%E -0.267%K -0.341%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.11%EV -6.45%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-21 17:00
Bally Bet1.87I 53.48%NM 51.11%EV -4.60%E -2.46%K -5.29%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.78%EV -1.23%E -0.267%K -0.341%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.11%EV -6.45%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-21 17:01
BetUS1.87I 53.48%NM 50.99%EV -4.60%E -2.46%K -5.29%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.96%EV -2.30%E -0.505%K -0.648%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.05%EV -6.45%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-21 16:59
Fanatics1.87I 53.48%NM 50.88%EV -4.60%E -2.46%K -5.29%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.14%EV -3.37%E -0.750%K -0.964%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.98%EV -6.45%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-21 17:01
SportsBet1.85I 54.05%NM 51.38%EV -5.63%E -3.04%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.66%EV -1.23%E -0.267%K -0.341%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.96%EV -6.45%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-21 17:01
Betway1.91I 52.36%NM 49.59%EV -2.56%E -1.34%K -2.82%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.55%EV -9.82%E -2.34%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.86%EV -6.45%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-21 17:01
Bet Victor1.85I 54.05%NM 51.14%EV -5.63%E -3.04%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.03%EV -3.37%E -0.750%K -0.964%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -6.45%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-21 17:01
FanDuel1.83I 54.64%NM 51.65%EV -6.65%E -3.63%K -8.01%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -1.23%E -0.267%K -0.341%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.80%EV -6.45%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-21 17:00
Unibet (UK)1.88I 53.19%NM 50.12%EV -4.09%E -2.18%K -4.65%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.17%EV -8.74%E -2.06%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -6.45%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-21 17:00
TAB1.85I 54.05%NM 49.84%EV -5.63%E -3.04%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -14.11%E -3.53%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -6.45%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-21 17:00
PlayUp1.85I 54.05%NM 49.84%EV -5.63%E -3.04%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -14.11%E -3.53%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -6.45%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-21 17:00
Everygame1.90I 52.63%NM 50.03%EV -3.07%E -1.62%K -3.42%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.60%EV -5.52%E -1.25%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.37%EV -7.83%E -2.34%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-21 16:59
Bovada1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -4.09%E -2.18%K -4.65%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.11%EV -3.37%E -0.750%K -0.964%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.36%EV -7.83%E -2.34%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-21 16:58
Unibet1.85I 54.05%NM 50.93%EV -5.63%E -3.04%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.94%EV -3.37%E -0.750%K -0.964%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.13%EV -7.83%E -2.34%K -3.33%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-21 17:00
TABtouch1.85I 54.05%NM 50.93%EV -5.63%E -3.04%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.94%EV -3.37%E -0.750%K -0.964%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.13%EV -7.83%E -2.34%K -3.33%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-21 17:01
LeoVegas (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.93%EV -5.63%E -3.04%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.94%EV -3.37%E -0.750%K -0.964%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.13%EV -7.83%E -2.34%K -3.33%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-21 17:01
DraftKings1.87I 53.48%NM 49.91%EV -4.60%E -2.46%K -5.29%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -9.82%E -2.34%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -7.83%E -2.34%K -3.33%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-21 17:01
PMU (FR)1.83I 54.64%NM 50.99%EV -6.65%E -3.63%K -8.01%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -3.37%E -0.750%K -0.964%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -9.20%E -2.79%K -4.00%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-21 17:00
BetRivers1.83I 54.64%NM 50.99%EV -6.65%E -3.63%K -8.01%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -3.37%E -0.750%K -0.964%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -9.20%E -2.79%K -4.00%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-21 16:57
Paddy Power1.80I 55.56%NM 51.40%EV -8.18%E -4.54%K -10.22%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%EV -3.37%E -0.750%K -0.964%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -9.20%E -2.79%K -4.00%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-21 17:01
Mr Green (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.97%EV -5.63%E -3.04%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.01%EV -9.82%E -2.34%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -9.20%E -2.79%K -4.00%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-21 16:59
Virgin Bet1.84I 54.35%NM 50.24%EV -6.14%E -3.33%K -7.30%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.75%EV -8.74%E -2.06%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.01%EV -9.20%E -2.79%K -4.00%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-21 17:01
NetBet (FR)1.83I 54.64%NM 50.50%EV -6.65%E -3.63%K -8.01%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.49%EV -7.67%E -1.78%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.01%EV -9.20%E -2.79%K -4.00%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-21 16:59
LeoVegas1.81I 55.25%NM 51.02%EV -7.67%E -4.24%K -9.46%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.99%EV -5.52%E -1.25%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.99%EV -9.20%E -2.79%K -4.00%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-21 17:01
BoyleSports1.80I 55.56%NM 50.99%EV -8.18%E -4.54%K -10.22%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.20%EV -7.02%E -1.62%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -9.20%E -2.79%K -4.00%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-21 17:00
William Hill1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -5.63%E -3.04%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -14.11%E -3.53%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -9.20%E -2.79%K -4.00%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-21 17:00
Fliff1.80I 55.56%NM 50.53%EV -8.18%E -4.54%K -10.22%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.91%EV -10.89%E -2.62%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -9.20%E -2.79%K -4.00%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-21 17:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 49.07%EV -11.75%E -6.79%K -16.09%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.64%EV -19.48%E -5.19%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.30%EV -17.46%E -5.82%K -8.73%G +0.000%17.8%2026-04-21 17:01
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi1.96I 51.02%NM 51.01%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.97%3.70I 27.03%NM 27.02%0.0%2026-04-21 17:01
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.97I 50.76%NM 50.66%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.23%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.11%0.2%2026-04-21 17:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.97I 50.76%NM 50.45%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.15%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.40%0.6%2026-04-21 17:00
Matchbook1.97I 50.76%NM 50.45%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.15%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.40%0.6%2026-04-21 17:01
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.95I 51.28%NM 50.91%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.12%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.97%0.7%2026-04-21 17:01
Smarkets1.96I 51.02%NM 50.37%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.01%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.62%1.3%2026-04-21 17:00