The School of Odds
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Xerez CD v Cádiz CF

2026-10-28 20:00 UTC — Copa del Rey

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Xerez CD (Local)

Prediction 23.26%4.30fair odd
EV -2.29%
Edge -0.546%
Kelly -0.716%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.33%23.24%23.27%25.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.553.833.804.2028.17%26.09%26.32%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cádiz CF (Visit)

Prediction 51.37%1.95fair odd
EV -4.96%
Edge -2.68%
Kelly -5.83%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.59%51.39%51.32%53.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.761.751.8560.61%56.81%57.14%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.36%3.94fair odd
EV +1.45%
Edge +0.362%
Kelly +0.482%
Growth +0.007%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.05%25.37%25.41%26.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.323.723.804.0030.12%26.90%26.32%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Xerez CD (Local): 23.26%; Cádiz CF (Visit): 51.37%; Draw: 25.36%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.94. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 4.00, producing a positive expected value of +1.45%.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Sky Bet🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.26%EV -11.60%E -3.05%K -4.14%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.69%EV -10.09%E -5.77%K -13.46%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV +1.45%E +0.362%K +0.482%G +0.007%8.5%2026-10-28 06:36
BetMGM🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.47%EV -2.29%E -0.546%K -0.716%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.33%EV -9.07%E -5.12%K -11.78%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.20%EV -1.09%E -0.279%K -0.376%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-28 05:19
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -2.29%E -0.546%K -0.716%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.61%EV -10.09%E -5.77%K -13.46%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -1.09%E -0.279%K -0.376%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-28 04:50
Coral🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -2.29%E -0.546%K -0.716%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.61%EV -10.09%E -5.77%K -13.46%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -1.09%E -0.279%K -0.376%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-28 05:20
SportsBet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -6.95%E -1.74%K -2.32%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.59%EV -8.55%E -4.81%K -10.97%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -1.09%E -0.279%K -0.376%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-28 06:35
Paddy Power🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -6.95%E -1.74%K -2.32%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.69%EV -10.09%E -5.77%K -13.46%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.26%EV -3.63%E -0.954%K -1.29%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-28 06:35
Unibet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.23%EV -17.41%E -4.91%K -6.83%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.19%EV -10.09%E -5.77%K -13.46%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.57%EV -3.63%E -0.954%K -1.29%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-28 04:04
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.23%EV -17.41%E -4.91%K -6.83%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.19%EV -10.09%E -5.77%K -13.46%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.57%EV -3.63%E -0.954%K -1.29%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-28 04:05
LiveScore Bet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.23%EV -17.41%E -4.91%K -6.83%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.19%EV -10.09%E -5.77%K -13.46%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.57%EV -3.63%E -0.954%K -1.29%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-28 04:05
Unibet (SE)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.23%EV -17.41%E -4.91%K -6.83%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.19%EV -10.09%E -5.77%K -13.46%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.57%EV -3.63%E -0.954%K -1.29%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-28 04:05
Grosvenor🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.23%EV -17.41%E -4.91%K -6.83%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.19%EV -10.09%E -5.77%K -13.46%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.57%EV -3.63%E -0.954%K -1.29%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-28 04:04
Virgin Bet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.23%EV -17.41%E -4.91%K -6.83%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.19%EV -10.09%E -5.77%K -13.46%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.57%EV -3.63%E -0.954%K -1.29%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-28 04:04
Svenska Spel🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.23%EV -17.41%E -4.91%K -6.83%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.19%EV -10.09%E -5.77%K -13.46%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.57%EV -3.63%E -0.954%K -1.29%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-28 04:04
ATG (SE)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.23%EV -17.41%E -4.91%K -6.83%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.19%EV -10.09%E -5.77%K -13.46%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.57%EV -3.63%E -0.954%K -1.29%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-28 04:05
Betway🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -6.95%E -1.74%K -2.32%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%EV -4.96%E -2.68%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -8.70%E -2.42%K -3.35%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-28 04:50
1xBet🎯4.18I 23.92%NM 22.37%EV -2.76%E -0.660%K -0.867%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 51.66%EV -7.01%E -3.87%K -8.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -8.70%E -2.42%K -3.35%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-28 04:20
Unibet (UK)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.94%EV -6.95%E -1.74%K -2.32%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.56%EV -8.55%E -4.81%K -10.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -8.70%E -2.42%K -3.35%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-28 05:55
betano_uk🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -11.60%E -3.05%K -4.14%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.67%EV -7.53%E -4.18%K -9.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.33%EV -8.70%E -2.42%K -3.35%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-28 06:30
Bet Victor🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -11.60%E -3.05%K -4.14%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.67%EV -7.53%E -4.18%K -9.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.33%EV -8.70%E -2.42%K -3.35%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-28 06:34
888sport🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -6.95%E -1.74%K -2.32%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.99%EV -10.09%E -5.77%K -13.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.27%EV -8.70%E -2.42%K -3.35%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-28 05:25
888sport (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -6.95%E -1.74%K -2.32%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.99%EV -10.09%E -5.77%K -13.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.27%EV -8.70%E -2.42%K -3.35%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-28 05:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -6.95%E -1.74%K -2.32%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.99%EV -10.09%E -5.77%K -13.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.27%EV -8.70%E -2.42%K -3.35%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-28 05:20
BoyleSports🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.33%EV -16.25%E -4.51%K -6.25%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 50.64%EV -11.12%E -6.43%K -15.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.03%EV -11.23%E -3.21%K -4.49%G +0.000%14.2%2026-10-28 04:50
Tipico (DE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.33%EV -9.27%E -2.38%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 52.78%EV -15.23%E -9.23%K -23.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.88%EV -11.23%E -3.21%K -4.49%G +0.000%14.8%2026-10-28 06:10
Pinnacle🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.67%EV -12.76%E -3.40%K -4.64%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 49.59%EV -8.04%E -4.49%K -10.18%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 26.74%EV -15.80%E -4.76%K -6.81%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-28 04:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎4.20I 23.81%NM 23.26%1.89I 52.91%NM 51.69%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.05%2.4%2026-10-28 08:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎4.20I 23.81%NM 23.26%1.89I 52.91%NM 51.69%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.05%2.4%2026-10-28 08:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎4.20I 23.81%NM 23.20%1.88I 53.19%NM 51.82%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.98%2.6%2026-10-28 08:05