The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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UD Pinatar v Elche CF

Kickoff: 2026-10-27 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

UD Pinatar (Local)

Prediction 1.72%58.06fair odd
EV +22.30%
Edge +0.314%
Kelly +0.319%
Growth +0.071%

assuming max odds 71.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
1.35%1.72%1.72%2.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
41.0053.5048.5071.002.44%1.87%2.06%1.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Elche CF (Visit)

Prediction 94.57%1.06fair odd
EV -2.60%
Edge -2.52%
Kelly -86.51%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.03

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
92.72%94.57%94.57%94.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.021.021.021.0398.04%97.72%98.04%97.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.71%26.95fair odd
EV -3.54%
Edge -0.136%
Kelly -0.142%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 26.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.71%3.71%3.71%5.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
18.0020.1719.5026.005.56%4.96%5.13%3.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: UD Pinatar (Local): 1.72%; Elche CF (Visit): 94.57%; Draw: 3.71%. For UD Pinatar (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 58.06. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 71.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +22.30%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Paddy Power🎯71.00I 1.41%NM 1.35%EV +22.30%E +0.314%K +0.319%G +0.071%1.03I 97.09%NM 93.31%EV -2.60%E -2.52%K -86.51%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.34%EV -33.22%E -1.85%K -1.95%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-27 17:20
SportsBet🎯71.00I 1.41%NM 1.35%EV +22.30%E +0.314%K +0.319%G +0.071%1.03I 97.09%NM 93.31%EV -2.60%E -2.52%K -86.51%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.34%EV -33.22%E -1.85%K -1.95%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-27 17:35
BetMGM🎯56.00I 1.79%NM 1.72%EV -3.54%E -0.063%K -0.064%G +0.000%1.02I 98.04%NM 94.57%EV -3.54%E -3.47%K -177.05%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.71%EV -3.54%E -0.136%K -0.142%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-27 17:50
Unibet🎯41.00I 2.44%NM 2.31%EV -29.38%E -0.717%K -0.734%G +0.000%1.02I 98.04%NM 92.95%EV -3.54%E -3.47%K -177.05%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.74%EV -25.80%E -1.29%K -1.36%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-27 17:25
Svenska Spel🎯41.00I 2.44%NM 2.31%EV -29.38%E -0.717%K -0.734%G +0.000%1.02I 98.04%NM 92.95%EV -3.54%E -3.47%K -177.05%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.74%EV -25.80%E -1.29%K -1.36%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-27 17:35
1xBet🎯41.00I 2.44%NM 2.31%EV -29.38%E -0.717%K -0.734%G +0.000%1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -3.54%E -3.47%K -177.05%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.98%EV -29.51%E -1.55%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-27 17:56
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎100.00I 1.00%NM 0.98%1.03I 97.09%NM 95.62%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.40%1.5%2026-10-27 17:55