The School of Odds
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Sporting de Alcázar v Málaga

Kickoff: 2026-10-27 20:00 UTC

Final: Sporting de Alcázar 0–3 Málaga

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sporting de Alcázar (Local)

Prediction 2.19%45.59fair odd
EV +55.73%
Edge +0.785%
Kelly +0.796%
Growth +0.444%

assuming max odds 71.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
1.36%2.19%2.33%3.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
28.0045.2441.0071.003.57%2.21%2.44%1.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Málaga (Visit)

Prediction 91.78%1.09fair odd
EV -5.46%
Edge -5.30%
Kelly -182.13%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.03

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
89.20%91.78%92.09%94.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.011.031.031.0399.01%97.42%97.09%97.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 6.02%16.60fair odd
EV +56.63%
Edge +2.18%
Kelly +2.27%
Growth +1.28%

assuming max odds 26.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.67%6.02%5.58%8.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
11.0018.7620.0026.009.09%5.33%5.00%3.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sporting de Alcázar (Local): 2.19%; Málaga (Visit): 91.78%; Draw: 6.02%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 16.60. 14 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 26.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +56.63%.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Sky Bet🎯51.00I 1.96%NM 1.87%EV +11.86%E +0.233%K +0.237%G +0.028%1.01I 99.01%NM 94.46%EV -7.30%E -7.23%K -729.97%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.67%EV +56.63%E +2.18%K +2.27%G +1.28%4.8%2026-10-27 19:05
BetMGM🎯41.00I 2.44%NM 2.35%EV -10.07%E -0.246%K -0.252%G +0.000%1.03I 97.09%NM 93.47%EV -5.46%E -5.30%K -182.13%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.19%EV +38.55%E +1.68%K +1.75%G +0.676%3.9%2026-10-27 19:55
Coral🎯51.00I 1.96%NM 1.89%EV +11.86%E +0.233%K +0.237%G +0.028%1.03I 97.09%NM 93.52%EV -5.46%E -5.30%K -182.13%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.59%EV +26.51%E +1.26%K +1.33%G +0.351%3.8%2026-10-27 19:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯46.00I 2.17%NM 2.09%EV +0.894%E +0.019%K +0.020%G +0.000%1.03I 97.09%NM 93.33%EV -5.46%E -5.30%K -182.13%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.58%EV +26.51%E +1.26%K +1.33%G +0.351%4.0%2026-10-27 19:55
1xBet🎯30.00I 3.33%NM 3.17%EV -34.20%E -1.14%K -1.18%G +0.000%1.03I 97.09%NM 92.30%EV -5.46%E -5.30%K -182.13%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.53%EV +26.51%E +1.26%K +1.33%G +0.351%5.2%2026-10-27 19:00
Paddy Power🎯71.00I 1.41%NM 1.36%EV +55.73%E +0.785%K +0.796%G +0.444%1.03I 97.09%NM 93.81%EV -5.46%E -5.30%K -182.13%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.83%EV +20.48%E +1.02%K +1.08%G +0.221%3.5%2026-10-27 19:05
Unibet🎯35.00I 2.86%NM 2.72%EV -23.23%E -0.664%K -0.683%G +0.000%1.03I 97.09%NM 92.51%EV -5.46%E -5.30%K -182.13%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.76%EV +20.48%E +1.02%K +1.08%G +0.221%4.9%2026-10-27 19:10
Svenska Spel🎯35.00I 2.86%NM 2.72%EV -23.23%E -0.664%K -0.683%G +0.000%1.03I 97.09%NM 92.51%EV -5.46%E -5.30%K -182.13%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.76%EV +20.48%E +1.02%K +1.08%G +0.221%4.9%2026-10-27 19:05
ATG (SE)🎯35.00I 2.86%NM 2.72%EV -23.23%E -0.664%K -0.683%G +0.000%1.03I 97.09%NM 92.51%EV -5.46%E -5.30%K -182.13%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.76%EV +20.48%E +1.02%K +1.08%G +0.221%4.9%2026-10-27 19:05
Unibet (SE)🎯35.00I 2.86%NM 2.72%EV -23.23%E -0.664%K -0.683%G +0.000%1.03I 97.09%NM 92.51%EV -5.46%E -5.30%K -182.13%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.76%EV +20.48%E +1.02%K +1.08%G +0.221%4.9%2026-10-27 19:05
SportsBet🎯71.00I 1.41%NM 1.36%EV +55.73%E +0.785%K +0.796%G +0.444%1.03I 97.09%NM 93.57%EV -5.46%E -5.30%K -182.13%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.07%EV +14.46%E +0.761%K +0.803%G +0.116%3.8%2026-10-27 18:10
888sport🎯56.00I 1.79%NM 1.70%EV +22.83%E +0.408%K +0.415%G +0.095%1.03I 97.09%NM 92.68%EV -5.46%E -5.30%K -182.13%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.62%EV +2.41%E +0.142%K +0.151%G +0.004%4.8%2026-10-27 18:18
888sport (SE)🎯56.00I 1.79%NM 1.70%EV +22.83%E +0.408%K +0.415%G +0.095%1.03I 97.09%NM 92.68%EV -5.46%E -5.30%K -182.13%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.62%EV +2.41%E +0.142%K +0.151%G +0.004%4.8%2026-10-27 18:18
Mr Green (SE)🎯56.00I 1.79%NM 1.70%EV +22.83%E +0.408%K +0.415%G +0.095%1.03I 97.09%NM 92.68%EV -5.46%E -5.30%K -182.13%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.62%EV +2.41%E +0.142%K +0.151%G +0.004%4.8%2026-10-27 18:18
Winamax (DE)🎯28.00I 3.57%NM 3.27%EV -38.59%E -1.38%K -1.43%G +0.000%1.01I 99.01%NM 90.63%EV -7.30%E -7.23%K -729.97%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -9.64%E -0.643%K -0.688%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-27 19:55
betano_uk🎯36.00I 2.78%NM 2.53%EV -21.04%E -0.584%K -0.601%G +0.000%1.02I 98.04%NM 89.20%EV -6.38%E -6.26%K -319.09%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.27%EV -33.73%E -3.07%K -3.37%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-27 19:20
Bet Victor🎯36.00I 2.78%NM 2.53%EV -21.04%E -0.584%K -0.601%G +0.000%1.02I 98.04%NM 89.20%EV -6.38%E -6.26%K -319.09%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.27%EV -33.73%E -3.07%K -3.37%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-27 19:43
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎50.00I 2.00%NM 1.96%1.05I 95.24%NM 93.57%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.47%1.8%2026-10-27 19:55