The School of Odds
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Sestao River Club v Espanyol

Kickoff: 2026-10-27 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sestao River Club (Local)

Prediction 14.28%7.00fair odd
EV +12.21%
Edge +1.55%
Kelly +1.78%
Growth +0.217%

assuming max odds 7.86

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.92%14.28%14.28%17.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.256.306.507.8619.05%15.86%15.38%12.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Espanyol (Visit)

Prediction 65.71%1.52fair odd
EV -1.43%
Edge -0.954%
Kelly -2.86%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.83%65.71%65.71%66.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.441.441.5071.43%69.38%69.69%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.01%5.00fair odd
EV -4.95%
Edge -1.04%
Kelly -1.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.88%20.01%20.01%21.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.254.524.504.7523.53%22.14%22.22%21.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sestao River Club (Local): 14.28%; Espanyol (Visit): 65.71%; Draw: 20.01%. For Sestao River Club (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.00. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.86, corresponding to a positive expected value of +12.21%.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯7.86I 12.72%NM 11.92%EV +12.21%E +1.55%K +1.78%G +0.217%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.90%EV -8.00%E -5.72%K -20.00%G +0.000%4.42I 22.62%NM 21.19%EV -11.55%E -2.61%K -3.38%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-27 17:56
Pinnacle🎯6.62I 15.11%NM 14.02%EV -5.49%E -0.829%K -0.977%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 65.84%EV -7.34%E -5.21%K -17.91%G +0.000%4.61I 21.69%NM 20.14%EV -7.75%E -1.68%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-27 17:55
BetMGM🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -7.20%E -1.11%K -1.31%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.59%EV -5.37%E -3.73%K -12.21%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.88%EV -4.95%E -1.04%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-27 17:54
SportsBet🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -7.20%E -1.11%K -1.31%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.32%EV -6.03%E -4.22%K -14.02%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -7.95%E -1.73%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-27 17:35
Paddy Power🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -7.20%E -1.11%K -1.31%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.51%EV -8.00%E -5.72%K -20.00%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -9.95%E -2.21%K -2.84%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-27 17:20
Unibet🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 16.73%EV -20.05%E -3.58%K -4.36%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.45%EV -1.43%E -0.954%K -2.86%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.82%EV -9.95%E -2.21%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-27 17:50
Svenska Spel🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 16.73%EV -20.05%E -3.58%K -4.36%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.45%EV -1.43%E -0.954%K -2.86%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.82%EV -9.95%E -2.21%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-27 17:50
LiveScore Bet🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.08%EV -25.05%E -4.77%K -5.89%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 61.83%EV -4.72%E -3.25%K -10.48%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.09%EV -14.96%E -3.52%K -4.60%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-27 17:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎7.80I 12.82%NM 12.67%1.48I 67.57%NM 66.75%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.58%1.2%2026-10-27 17:55