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Recreativo de Huelva v Rayo Vallecano
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Recreativo de Huelva (Local)
Prediction 18.67%5.36fair odd
EV +12.04%
Edge +2.01%
Kelly +2.41%
Growth +0.290%
assuming max odds 6.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.38%18.67%18.49%20.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.375.366.0022.22%18.62%18.67%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Rayo Vallecano (Visit)
Prediction 59.42%1.68fair odd
EV -4.93%
Edge -3.08%
Kelly -8.22%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.58%59.42%60.04%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.511.501.6069.44%66.25%66.89%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 21.91%4.56fair odd
EV -1.41%
Edge -0.313%
Kelly -0.403%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.51%21.91%21.46%23.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.334.314.5025.00%23.12%23.17%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Recreativo de Huelva (Local): 18.67%; Rayo Vallecano (Visit): 59.42%; Draw: 21.91%. For Recreativo de Huelva (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.36. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +12.04%.
Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sky Bet🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV +12.04%E +2.01%K +2.41%G +0.290% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.10%EV -14.44%E -10.03%K -32.82%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.51%EV -1.41%E -0.313%K -0.403%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-27 19:38 |
| Unibet🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV +7.37%E +1.28%K +1.55%G +0.114% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.88%EV -11.47%E -7.70%K -23.40%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.82%EV -1.41%E -0.313%K -0.403%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-27 19:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV +7.37%E +1.28%K +1.55%G +0.114% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.88%EV -11.47%E -7.70%K -23.40%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.82%EV -1.41%E -0.313%K -0.403%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-27 19:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV +7.37%E +1.28%K +1.55%G +0.114% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.88%EV -11.47%E -7.70%K -23.40%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.82%EV -1.41%E -0.313%K -0.403%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-27 19:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV +7.37%E +1.28%K +1.55%G +0.114% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.88%EV -11.47%E -7.70%K -23.40%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.82%EV -1.41%E -0.313%K -0.403%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-27 19:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.42%EV +6.44%E +1.13%K +1.37%G +0.088% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.56%EV -9.69%E -6.37%K -18.63%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -6.89%E -1.62%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-27 19:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV +2.71%E +0.492%K +0.601%G +0.016% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -10.87%E -7.25%K -21.75%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -7.98%E -1.90%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-27 19:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.72%EV +0.839%E +0.155%K +0.191%G +0.002% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 62.28%EV -13.84%E -9.55%K -30.77%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.00%EV -5.79%E -1.35%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-10-27 19:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.65%EV +0.839%E +0.155%K +0.191%G +0.002% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.44%EV -14.44%E -10.03%K -32.82%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.91%EV -5.79%E -1.35%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-10-27 19:30 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 5.31I 18.83%NM 17.57%EV -0.842%E -0.159%K -0.195%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.21%EV -7.90%E -5.10%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -7.98%E -1.90%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-27 19:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 16.87%EV -1.03%E -0.194%K -0.239%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.09%EV -14.44%E -10.03%K -32.82%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.04%EV -6.89%E -1.62%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-10-27 19:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 16.87%EV -1.03%E -0.194%K -0.239%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.09%EV -14.44%E -10.03%K -32.82%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.04%EV -6.89%E -1.62%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-10-27 19:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.06%EV -1.96%E -0.374%K -0.462%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.39%EV -6.71%E -4.28%K -11.78%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.55%EV -3.60%E -0.818%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-27 19:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.06%EV -1.96%E -0.374%K -0.462%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.39%EV -6.71%E -4.28%K -11.78%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.55%EV -3.60%E -0.818%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-27 19:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.73%EV -6.63%E -1.33%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.64%EV -6.71%E -4.28%K -11.78%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.63%EV -5.13%E -1.19%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-27 19:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -6.63%E -1.33%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.28%EV -8.50%E -5.52%K -15.74%G +0.000% | 4.39I 22.78%NM 21.15%EV -3.82%E -0.870%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-27 19:45 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.39%EV -11.30%E -2.38%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.58%EV -4.93%E -3.08%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -12.36%E -3.09%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-27 19:50 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.22%EV -15.97%E -3.55%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 57.59%EV -6.12%E -3.87%K -10.55%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.19%EV -10.17%E -2.48%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-10-27 19:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (1)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.33% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.22% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.45% | 1.2% | 2026-10-27 19:55 |