The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mijas Las Lagunas v Real Jaen

2026-11-10 19:00 UTC — Copa del Rey

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mijas Las Lagunas (Local)

Prediction 27.46%3.64fair odd
EV -4.99%
Edge -1.44%
Kelly -2.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.54%27.41%27.53%28.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.333.303.4631.25%30.06%30.30%28.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Real Jaen (Visit)

Prediction 45.03%2.22fair odd
EV -5.44%
Edge -2.59%
Kelly -4.94%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.81%45.06%44.96%46.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.902.052.102.1052.63%48.78%47.62%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.51%3.63fair odd
EV -3.71%
Edge -1.06%
Kelly -1.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.60%27.53%27.52%28.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.323.303.5031.25%30.09%30.30%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Mijas Las Lagunas (Local): 27.46%; Real Jaen (Visit): 45.03%; Draw: 27.51%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.63. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.50, with an expected value of -3.71%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯3.46I 28.90%NM 26.99%EV -4.99%E -1.44%K -2.03%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.55%EV -7.69%E -3.75%K -7.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -6.46%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%7.1%2026-11-08 11:40
Pinnacle🎯3.43I 29.15%NM 26.88%EV -5.82%E -1.70%K -2.39%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.19%EV -8.14%E -3.99%K -7.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -9.22%E -2.79%K -4.01%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-08 11:25
BetMGM🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -6.64%E -1.95%K -2.77%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.09%EV -5.44%E -2.59%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -3.71%E -1.06%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-08 11:25
Coral🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -6.64%E -1.95%K -2.77%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.09%EV -5.44%E -2.59%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -3.71%E -1.06%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-08 11:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -6.64%E -1.95%K -2.77%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.44%E -2.59%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -6.46%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%6.4%2026-11-08 11:25
888sport🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -9.39%E -2.84%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.81%EV -5.44%E -2.59%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -10.59%E -3.26%K -4.71%G +0.000%8.7%2026-11-08 11:25
William Hill🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -9.39%E -2.84%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.81%EV -5.44%E -2.59%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -10.59%E -3.26%K -4.71%G +0.000%8.7%2026-11-08 11:25
888sport (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -9.39%E -2.84%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.81%EV -5.44%E -2.59%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -10.59%E -3.26%K -4.71%G +0.000%8.7%2026-11-08 11:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -9.39%E -2.84%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.81%EV -5.44%E -2.59%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -10.59%E -3.26%K -4.71%G +0.000%8.7%2026-11-08 11:25
Tipico (DE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.54%EV -9.39%E -2.84%K -4.08%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 46.09%EV -14.44%E -7.60%K -16.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.37%EV -11.97%E -3.74%K -5.44%G +0.000%14.2%2026-11-08 13:49
Unibet (UK)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.89%EV -10.76%E -3.31%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.22%EV -7.69%E -3.75%K -7.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.89%EV -10.59%E -3.26%K -4.71%G +0.000%10.3%2026-11-08 11:25
Winamax (DE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -12.13%E -3.79%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.00%EV -9.94%E -4.97%K -9.94%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.87%EV -7.84%E -2.34%K -3.34%G +0.000%11.1%2026-11-08 11:23
BoyleSports🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.43%EV -12.13%E -3.79%K -5.51%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 45.96%EV -13.99%E -7.33%K -15.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.60%EV -9.22%E -2.79%K -4.01%G +0.000%13.9%2026-11-08 11:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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