The School of Odds
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Manacor v Villarreal

Kickoff: 2026-10-27 20:01 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Manacor (Local)

Prediction 4.16%24.06fair odd
EV +91.18%
Edge +1.98%
Kelly +2.03%
Growth +1.85%

assuming max odds 46.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.06%4.53%4.11%8.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
10.5030.7730.0046.009.52%3.25%3.33%2.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Villarreal (Visit)

Prediction 87.96%1.14fair odd
EV -5.00%
Edge -4.63%
Kelly -62.50%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
84.46%87.59%88.08%93.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.011.041.051.0899.01%95.88%95.24%92.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 7.88%12.69fair odd
EV +81.26%
Edge +3.53%
Kelly +3.69%
Growth +3.00%

assuming max odds 23.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
4.12%7.88%7.81%8.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
10.5014.6813.0023.009.52%6.81%7.69%4.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Manacor (Local): 4.16%; Villarreal (Visit): 87.96%; Draw: 7.88%. For Manacor (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 24.06. 12 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 46.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +91.18%.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Sky Bet🎯46.00I 2.17%NM 2.06%EV +91.18%E +1.98%K +2.03%G +1.85%1.01I 99.01%NM 93.82%EV -11.16%E -11.05%K -1115.74%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.12%EV +81.26%E +3.53%K +3.69%G +3.00%5.5%2026-10-27 18:37
Unibet🎯41.00I 2.44%NM 2.32%EV +70.40%E +1.72%K +1.76%G +1.24%1.02I 98.04%NM 93.16%EV -10.28%E -10.08%K -513.89%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.52%EV +65.50%E +3.12%K +3.28%G +2.15%5.2%2026-10-27 19:30
Svenska Spel🎯41.00I 2.44%NM 2.32%EV +70.40%E +1.72%K +1.76%G +1.24%1.02I 98.04%NM 93.16%EV -10.28%E -10.08%K -513.89%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.52%EV +65.50%E +3.12%K +3.28%G +2.15%5.2%2026-10-27 19:30
ATG (SE)🎯41.00I 2.44%NM 2.32%EV +70.40%E +1.72%K +1.76%G +1.24%1.02I 98.04%NM 93.16%EV -10.28%E -10.08%K -513.89%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.52%EV +65.50%E +3.12%K +3.28%G +2.15%5.2%2026-10-27 19:30
Unibet (SE)🎯41.00I 2.44%NM 2.32%EV +70.40%E +1.72%K +1.76%G +1.24%1.02I 98.04%NM 93.16%EV -10.28%E -10.08%K -513.89%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.52%EV +65.50%E +3.12%K +3.28%G +2.15%5.2%2026-10-27 19:30
Paddy Power🎯36.00I 2.78%NM 2.64%EV +49.62%E +1.38%K +1.42%G +0.703%1.05I 95.24%NM 90.57%EV -7.64%E -7.28%K -152.78%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.79%EV +10.33%E +0.738%K +0.795%G +0.082%5.2%2026-10-27 19:50
SportsBet🎯34.00I 2.94%NM 2.79%EV +41.31%E +1.21%K +1.25%G +0.517%1.05I 95.24%NM 90.43%EV -7.64%E -7.28%K -152.78%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.78%EV +10.33%E +0.738%K +0.795%G +0.082%5.3%2026-10-27 19:50
BetMGM🎯26.00I 3.85%NM 3.70%EV +8.06%E +0.310%K +0.322%G +0.026%1.08I 92.59%NM 89.16%EV -5.00%E -4.63%K -62.50%G +0.000%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.13%EV +6.39%E +0.474%K +0.511%G +0.033%3.8%2026-10-27 19:50
1xBet🎯25.00I 4.00%NM 3.71%EV +3.90%E +0.156%K +0.163%G +0.006%1.04I 96.15%NM 89.25%EV -8.52%E -8.19%K -212.96%G +0.000%13.20I 7.58%NM 7.03%EV +4.03%E +0.305%K +0.330%G +0.013%7.7%2026-10-27 19:55
Coral🎯23.00I 4.35%NM 4.16%EV -4.41%E -0.192%K -0.200%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 88.49%EV -5.00%E -4.63%K -62.50%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.35%EV +2.45%E +0.189%K +0.204%G +0.005%4.6%2026-10-27 19:55
888sport🎯41.00I 2.44%NM 2.31%EV +70.40%E +1.72%K +1.76%G +1.24%1.05I 95.24%NM 90.38%EV -7.64%E -7.28%K -152.78%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.30%EV +2.45%E +0.189%K +0.204%G +0.005%5.4%2026-10-27 19:55
888sport (SE)🎯41.00I 2.44%NM 2.31%EV +70.40%E +1.72%K +1.76%G +1.24%1.05I 95.24%NM 90.38%EV -7.64%E -7.28%K -152.78%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.30%EV +2.45%E +0.189%K +0.204%G +0.005%5.4%2026-10-27 19:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯41.00I 2.44%NM 2.31%EV +70.40%E +1.72%K +1.76%G +1.24%1.05I 95.24%NM 90.38%EV -7.64%E -7.28%K -152.78%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.30%EV +2.45%E +0.189%K +0.204%G +0.005%5.4%2026-10-27 19:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯23.00I 4.35%NM 4.12%EV -4.41%E -0.192%K -0.200%G +0.000%1.07I 93.46%NM 88.59%EV -5.88%E -5.50%K -84.00%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.29%EV +2.45%E +0.189%K +0.204%G +0.005%5.5%2026-10-27 19:50
Winamax (DE)🎯19.00I 5.26%NM 4.81%EV -21.03%E -1.11%K -1.17%G +0.000%1.04I 96.15%NM 87.88%EV -8.52%E -8.19%K -212.96%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.31%EV -1.49%E -0.119%K -0.129%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-27 19:50
Tipico (DE)🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.29%EV -56.36%E -5.37%K -5.93%G +0.000%1.03I 97.09%NM 84.46%EV -9.40%E -9.12%K -313.27%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.25%EV -5.43%E -0.452%K -0.493%G +0.000%14.9%2026-10-27 19:55
BoyleSports🎯19.00I 5.26%NM 4.72%EV -21.03%E -1.11%K -1.17%G +0.000%1.03I 97.09%NM 87.12%EV -9.40%E -9.12%K -313.27%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.16%EV -13.31%E -1.21%K -1.33%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-27 19:55
Unibet (UK)🎯23.00I 4.35%NM 3.98%EV -4.41%E -0.192%K -0.200%G +0.000%1.05I 95.24%NM 87.29%EV -7.64%E -7.28%K -152.78%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.73%EV -17.25%E -1.64%K -1.82%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-27 19:50
betano_uk🎯22.00I 4.55%NM 4.16%EV -8.57%E -0.389%K -0.408%G +0.000%1.05I 95.24%NM 87.13%EV -7.64%E -7.28%K -152.78%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.71%EV -17.25%E -1.64%K -1.82%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-27 19:53
Bet Victor🎯22.00I 4.55%NM 4.16%EV -8.57%E -0.389%K -0.408%G +0.000%1.05I 95.24%NM 87.13%EV -7.64%E -7.28%K -152.78%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.71%EV -17.25%E -1.64%K -1.82%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-27 19:53
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎36.00I 2.78%NM 2.72%1.08I 92.59%NM 90.74%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.53%2.0%2026-10-27 19:55