The School of Odds
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Gimnástica Segoviana v Cultural Leonesa

Kickoff: 2026-10-27 19:00 UTC

Final: Gimnástica Segoviana 0–1 Cultural Leonesa

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gimnástica Segoviana (Local)

Prediction 25.30%3.95fair odd
EV -3.86%
Edge -1.02%
Kelly -1.38%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.54%25.28%25.30%27.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.533.453.8030.30%28.34%28.99%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cultural Leonesa (Visit)

Prediction 48.44%2.06fair odd
EV -1.18%
Edge -0.576%
Kelly -1.13%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.57%48.33%48.44%50.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.831.951.962.0454.64%51.26%51.02%49.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.26%3.81fair odd
EV +5.03%
Edge +1.26%
Kelly +1.68%
Growth +0.084%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.53%26.39%26.26%27.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.523.454.0030.30%28.44%28.99%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gimnástica Segoviana (Local): 25.30%; Cultural Leonesa (Visit): 48.44%; Draw: 26.26%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.81. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.03%.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Sky Bet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.14%EV -8.92%E -2.48%K -3.43%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.33%EV -9.41%E -5.03%K -10.82%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV +5.03%E +1.26%K +1.68%G +0.084%6.3%2026-10-27 18:37
Paddy Power🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.50%EV -6.39%E -1.73%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.66%EV -7.96%E -4.19%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.83%EV -0.226%E -0.059%K -0.081%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-27 18:20
SportsBet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.50%EV -6.39%E -1.73%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.66%EV -7.96%E -4.19%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.83%EV -0.226%E -0.059%K -0.081%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-27 18:23
BetMGM🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -3.86%E -1.02%K -1.38%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.53%EV -7.47%E -3.91%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.57%EV -2.85%E -0.771%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-27 18:18
Coral🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -3.86%E -1.02%K -1.38%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.53%EV -7.47%E -3.91%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.57%EV -2.85%E -0.771%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-27 18:18
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -5.12%E -1.37%K -1.86%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.02%EV -7.47%E -3.91%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.01%EV -5.48%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-27 18:18
Winamax (DE)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.40%EV -12.71%E -3.69%K -5.19%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 47.94%EV -7.96%E -4.19%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.66%EV -6.79%E -1.91%K -2.66%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-27 18:50
Betway🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -3.86%E -1.02%K -1.38%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -7.47%E -3.91%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -8.10%E -2.32%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-27 18:30
Unibet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.09%EV -12.71%E -3.69%K -5.19%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.82%EV -1.18%E -0.576%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.09%EV -9.42%E -2.73%K -3.84%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-27 18:32
Svenska Spel🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.09%EV -12.71%E -3.69%K -5.19%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.82%EV -1.18%E -0.576%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.09%EV -9.42%E -2.73%K -3.84%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-27 18:18
ATG (SE)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.09%EV -12.71%E -3.69%K -5.19%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.82%EV -1.18%E -0.576%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.09%EV -9.42%E -2.73%K -3.84%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-27 18:18
Unibet (SE)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.09%EV -12.71%E -3.69%K -5.19%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.82%EV -1.18%E -0.576%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.09%EV -9.42%E -2.73%K -3.84%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-27 18:18
1xBet🎯3.62I 27.62%NM 25.83%EV -8.41%E -2.32%K -3.21%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 46.99%EV -3.60%E -1.81%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.18%EV -9.68%E -2.81%K -3.97%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-27 18:55
betano_uk🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -16.51%E -5.00%K -7.18%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -3.11%E -1.56%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -10.73%E -3.16%K -4.47%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-27 18:54
BoyleSports🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 25.92%EV -13.98%E -4.11%K -5.82%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.16%EV -11.35%E -6.20%K -13.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.92%EV -10.73%E -3.16%K -4.47%G +0.000%13.5%2026-10-27 18:40
Pinnacle🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.75%EV -8.92%E -2.48%K -3.43%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.82%EV -4.08%E -2.06%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.43%EV -11.25%E -3.33%K -4.73%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-27 18:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.02%EV -15.24%E -4.55%K -6.49%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 45.95%EV -4.57%E -2.32%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.02%EV -12.04%E -3.59%K -5.12%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-27 18:18
LiveScore Bet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.15%EV -16.51%E -5.00%K -7.18%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 45.71%EV -5.05%E -2.58%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.15%EV -13.35%E -4.05%K -5.81%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-27 18:18
Virgin Bet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.15%EV -16.51%E -5.00%K -7.18%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 45.71%EV -5.05%E -2.58%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.15%EV -13.35%E -4.05%K -5.81%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-27 18:18
Grosvenor🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.15%EV -16.51%E -5.00%K -7.18%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 45.71%EV -5.05%E -2.58%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.15%EV -13.35%E -4.05%K -5.81%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-27 18:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.95I 25.32%NM 24.82%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.03%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.15%2.0%2026-10-27 18:55