Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cuarte v Girona

Kickoff: 2026-10-27 17:30 UTC

Final: Cuarte 0–2 Girona

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

75%

15%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cuarte (Local)

Prediction 9.43%10.60fair odd

EV +50.92%

Edge +3.18%

Kelly +3.39%

Growth +1.73%

assuming max odds 16.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

5.86%9.43%9.43%9.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

9.5013.5015.0016.0010.53%7.41%6.67%6.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Girona (Visit)

Prediction 75.30%1.33fair odd

EV -10.39%

Edge -8.73%

Kelly -54.69%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.19

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

75.30%75.30%75.30%80.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.161.171.171.1986.21%85.23%85.47%84.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 15.27%6.55fair odd

EV +6.86%

Edge +0.980%

Kelly +1.14%

Growth +0.078%

assuming max odds 7.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

13.38%15.27%15.27%15.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

5.876.627.007.0017.04%15.10%14.29%14.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cuarte (Local): 9.43%; Girona (Visit): 75.30%; Draw: 15.27%. For Cuarte (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.60. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 16.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +50.92%.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
Unibet🎯	16.00I 6.25%NM 5.86%EV +50.92%E +3.18%K +3.39%G +1.73%	1.16I 86.21%NM 80.76%EV -12.65%E -10.91%K -79.06%G +0.000%	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV +6.86%E +0.980%K +1.14%G +0.078%	6.7%	2026-10-27 17:20
Paddy Power🎯	15.00I 6.67%NM 6.26%EV +41.49%E +2.77%K +2.96%G +1.23%	1.17I 85.47%NM 80.31%EV -11.90%E -10.17%K -69.98%G +0.000%	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV +6.86%E +0.980%K +1.14%G +0.078%	6.4%	2026-10-27 17:20
Pinnacle🎯	9.50I 10.53%NM 9.43%EV -10.39%E -1.09%K -1.22%G +0.000%	1.19I 84.03%NM 75.30%EV -10.39%E -8.73%K -54.69%G +0.000%	5.87I 17.04%NM 15.27%EV -10.39%E -1.77%K -2.13%G +0.000%	11.6%	2026-10-27 17:25

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.