The School of Odds
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CF Trival Valderas v Leganés

2026-11-10 19:00 UTC — Copa del Rey

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

CF Trival Valderas (Local)

Prediction 7.34%13.62fair odd
EV +24.79%
Edge +1.46%
Kelly +1.55%
Growth +0.384%

assuming max odds 17.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.47%7.25%7.27%8.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
10.0512.9713.0017.009.95%7.71%7.69%5.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Leganés (Visit)

Prediction 78.74%1.27fair odd
EV -6.30%
Edge -5.29%
Kelly -33.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.19

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
76.17%78.58%79.31%81.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.101.161.171.1990.91%86.10%85.47%84.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 13.92%7.18fair odd
EV +4.40%
Edge +0.586%
Kelly +0.676%
Growth +0.030%

assuming max odds 7.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.09%14.17%13.42%16.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.506.767.007.5018.18%14.79%14.29%13.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: CF Trival Valderas (Local): 7.34%; Leganés (Visit): 78.74%; Draw: 13.92%. For CF Trival Valderas (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 13.62. 3 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 17.00, producing a positive expected value of +24.79%.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Codere (IT)🎯17.00I 5.88%NM 5.47%EV +24.79%E +1.46%K +1.55%G +0.384%1.14I 87.72%NM 81.61%EV -10.24%E -8.98%K -73.12%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.92%EV +0.221%E +0.031%K +0.036%G +0.000%7.5%2026-11-08 19:35
Paddy Power🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.68%EV +2.76%E +0.197%K +0.213%G +0.006%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.95%EV -7.87%E -6.73%K -46.32%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.36%EV -2.56%E -0.366%K -0.427%G +0.000%6.9%2026-11-08 19:33
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.68%EV +2.76%E +0.197%K +0.213%G +0.006%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.95%EV -7.87%E -6.73%K -46.32%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.36%EV -2.56%E -0.366%K -0.427%G +0.000%6.9%2026-11-08 19:35
1xBet🎯13.60I 7.35%NM 6.88%EV -0.172%E -0.013%K -0.014%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 78.62%EV -6.30%E -5.29%K -33.15%G +0.000%6.45I 15.50%NM 14.50%EV -10.22%E -1.58%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.9%2026-11-08 14:55
William Hill🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.16%EV -4.58%E -0.352%K -0.381%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.55%EV -7.87%E -6.73%K -46.32%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -2.56%E -0.366%K -0.427%G +0.000%7.4%2026-11-08 15:20
SportsBet🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.16%EV -4.58%E -0.352%K -0.381%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.55%EV -7.87%E -6.73%K -46.32%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -2.56%E -0.366%K -0.427%G +0.000%7.4%2026-11-08 14:55
888sport🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.16%EV -4.58%E -0.352%K -0.381%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.55%EV -7.87%E -6.73%K -46.32%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -2.56%E -0.366%K -0.427%G +0.000%7.4%2026-11-08 15:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.16%EV -4.58%E -0.352%K -0.381%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.55%EV -7.87%E -6.73%K -46.32%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -2.56%E -0.366%K -0.427%G +0.000%7.4%2026-11-08 15:14
888sport (SE)🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.16%EV -4.58%E -0.352%K -0.381%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.55%EV -7.87%E -6.73%K -46.32%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -2.56%E -0.366%K -0.427%G +0.000%7.4%2026-11-08 15:15
Winamax (DE)🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 6.97%EV -4.58%E -0.352%K -0.381%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 80.94%EV -11.81%E -10.55%K -98.43%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV +4.40%E +0.586%K +0.676%G +0.030%10.3%2026-11-08 19:35
BoyleSports🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.49%EV -11.92%E -0.993%K -1.08%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 76.17%EV -7.09%E -6.01%K -39.37%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.34%EV -23.44%E -4.26%K -5.21%G +0.000%11.3%2026-11-08 15:00
Tipico (DE)🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.27%EV -11.92%E -0.993%K -1.08%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 79.31%EV -13.39%E -12.17%K -133.86%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.42%EV -9.52%E -1.47%K -1.73%G +0.000%14.6%2026-11-08 19:25
Sky Bet🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.27%EV -19.26%E -1.75%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 77.74%EV -7.87%E -6.73%K -46.32%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.99%EV -9.52%E -1.47%K -1.73%G +0.000%9.9%2026-11-08 15:15
Pinnacle🎯10.05I 9.95%NM 8.88%EV -26.23%E -2.61%K -2.90%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 76.27%EV -7.87%E -6.73%K -46.32%G +0.000%6.01I 16.64%NM 14.85%EV -16.34%E -2.72%K -3.26%G +0.000%12.1%2026-11-08 15:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎12.00I 8.33%NM 7.92%1.21I 82.64%NM 78.51%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.57%5.3%2026-11-08 19:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎12.00I 8.33%NM 7.92%1.21I 82.64%NM 78.51%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.57%5.3%2026-11-08 19:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎12.00I 8.33%NM 7.78%1.21I 82.64%NM 77.16%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.06%7.1%2026-11-08 19:25

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