Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Atlético Madrid v Real Sociedad

Kickoff: 2026-04-25 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (0 in analysis )

Atlético Madrid (Local)

Prediction 0.00%fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -51.02%
Kelly -104.17%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.96

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.56%0.00%0.00%48.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.841.921.931.9654.35%52.20%51.81%51.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Real Sociedad (Visit)

Prediction 0.00%fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -25.97%
Kelly -35.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.88%0.00%0.00%25.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.553.733.753.8528.17%26.82%26.67%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 0.00%fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -27.40%
Kelly -37.74%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.06%0.00%0.00%26.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.563.603.6529.41%28.06%27.78%27.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Atlético Madrid (Local): 0.00%; Real Sociedad (Visit): 0.00%; Draw: 0.00%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Svenska Spel🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.87%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.88%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.24%4.4%2026-03-04 22:13
Unibet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.63%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.16%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%6.0%2026-03-04 22:13
Unibet (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.76%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.10%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.14%6.3%2026-03-04 22:13
Unibet (NL)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.76%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.10%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.14%6.3%2026-03-04 22:14
LeoVegas🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.71%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.94%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.35%6.9%2026-03-04 22:13
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.94%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.06%8.1%2026-03-04 22:13
Virgin Bet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 48.56%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.17%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.28%11.9%2026-03-04 22:13
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.