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Alcoyano v Mallorca

2026-10-28 19:00 UTC — Copa del Rey

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alcoyano (Local)

Prediction 16.89%5.92fair odd
EV +9.78%
Edge +1.50%
Kelly +1.78%
Growth +0.174%

assuming max odds 6.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.67%16.91%16.86%18.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.755.665.756.5021.05%17.66%17.39%15.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Mallorca (Visit)

Prediction 57.97%1.72fair odd
EV -3.19%
Edge -1.91%
Kelly -4.76%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.51%58.01%58.00%62.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.461.551.541.6768.49%64.33%64.72%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.14%3.98fair odd
EV +5.58%
Edge +1.33%
Kelly +1.74%
Growth +0.097%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.68%25.07%25.14%26.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.363.783.704.2029.76%26.45%27.03%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Alcoyano (Local): 16.89%; Mallorca (Visit): 57.97%; Draw: 25.14%. For Alcoyano (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.92. 5 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 6.50, producing a positive expected value of +9.78%.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coral🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.67%EV +9.78%E +1.50%K +1.78%G +0.174%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.50%EV -10.14%E -6.54%K -18.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.83%EV +0.554%E +0.138%K +0.185%G +0.001%4.9%2026-10-27 19:05
BetMGM🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 15.10%EV +5.56%E +0.889%K +1.06%G +0.059%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.30%EV -10.72%E -6.96%K -19.86%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV +0.554%E +0.138%K +0.185%G +0.001%5.9%2026-10-27 19:05
SportsBet🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV +1.34%E +0.223%K +0.267%G +0.004%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -10.72%E -6.96%K -19.86%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV +0.554%E +0.138%K +0.185%G +0.001%6.6%2026-10-27 19:55
Paddy Power🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.57%EV +1.34%E +0.223%K +0.267%G +0.004%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -11.30%E -7.39%K -21.33%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV +0.554%E +0.138%K +0.185%G +0.001%7.0%2026-10-27 19:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.57%EV +1.34%E +0.223%K +0.267%G +0.004%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -11.30%E -7.39%K -21.33%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV +0.554%E +0.138%K +0.185%G +0.001%7.0%2026-10-27 19:05
888sport🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 15.98%EV -2.89%E -0.502%K -0.608%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.51%EV -8.98%E -5.72%K -15.76%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -9.50%E -2.64%K -3.65%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-27 19:45
888sport (SE)🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 15.98%EV -2.89%E -0.502%K -0.608%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.51%EV -8.98%E -5.72%K -15.76%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -9.50%E -2.64%K -3.65%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-27 19:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 15.98%EV -2.89%E -0.502%K -0.608%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.51%EV -8.98%E -5.72%K -15.76%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -9.50%E -2.64%K -3.65%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-27 19:45
betano_uk🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -2.89%E -0.502%K -0.608%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 59.93%EV -11.30%E -7.39%K -21.33%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.13%EV -4.47%E -1.18%K -1.60%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-27 19:53
Bet Victor🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -2.89%E -0.502%K -0.608%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 59.93%EV -11.30%E -7.39%K -21.33%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.13%EV -4.47%E -1.18%K -1.60%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-27 19:53
1xBet🎯5.71I 17.51%NM 16.36%EV -3.56%E -0.624%K -0.756%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.68%EV -6.08%E -3.76%K -9.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -9.50%E -2.64%K -3.65%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-27 18:09
Winamax (DE)🎯5.70I 17.54%NM 15.97%EV -3.73%E -0.655%K -0.794%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 62.35%EV -15.36%E -10.52%K -33.39%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.68%EV +5.58%E +1.33%K +1.74%G +0.097%9.8%2026-10-27 19:45
Sky Bet🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.94%EV -7.11%E -1.29%K -1.58%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.88%EV -11.30%E -7.39%K -21.33%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%EV +5.58%E +1.33%K +1.74%G +0.097%7.4%2026-10-27 20:09
Tipico (DE)🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 16.45%EV -10.49%E -1.98%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 59.32%EV -14.78%E -10.05%K -31.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.22%EV -9.50%E -2.64%K -3.65%G +0.000%14.7%2026-10-27 19:45
Betway🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.85%EV -11.33%E -2.16%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.12%EV -3.19%E -1.91%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -9.50%E -2.64%K -3.65%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-27 18:30
Pinnacle🎯5.19I 19.27%NM 17.09%EV -12.34%E -2.38%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 56.50%EV -8.98%E -5.72%K -15.76%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 26.40%EV -15.53%E -4.62%K -6.58%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-27 20:00
Unibet (UK)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.32%EV -15.55%E -3.11%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.51%EV -4.35%E -2.63%K -6.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.17%EV -12.02%E -3.43%K -4.81%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-27 19:15
BoyleSports🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 18.57%EV -19.78%E -4.16%K -5.27%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 56.92%EV -10.14%E -6.54%K -18.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.51%EV -9.50%E -2.64%K -3.65%G +0.000%13.3%2026-10-27 19:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎5.70I 17.54%NM 16.33%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.45%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.22%7.4%2026-10-27 20:45
Arbitrage (6 combinations) +0.93%Coral 6.50 (15.5%) / Betway 1.67 (60.4%) / Sky Bet 4.20 (24.0%)Show all 6 combinations
Alcoyano (Local)Mallorca (Visit)DrawMargin
Coral🎯 6.50 (15.5%)Betway🎯 1.67 (60.4%)Sky Bet🎯 4.20 (24.0%)+0.934%
Coral🎯 6.50 (15.5%)Betway🎯 1.67 (60.4%)Winamax (DE)🎯 4.20 (24.0%)+0.934%
BetMGM🎯 6.25 (16.0%)Betway🎯 1.67 (60.1%)Sky Bet🎯 4.20 (23.9%)+0.311%
BetMGM🎯 6.25 (16.0%)Betway🎯 1.67 (60.1%)Winamax (DE)🎯 4.20 (23.9%)+0.311%
Coral🎯 6.50 (15.4%)Unibet (UK)🎯 1.65 (60.7%)Sky Bet🎯 4.20 (23.9%)+0.200%
Coral🎯 6.50 (15.4%)Unibet (UK)🎯 1.65 (60.7%)Winamax (DE)🎯 4.20 (23.9%)+0.200%