The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Neom v Al-Ettifaq

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 15:40 UTC

Final: Neom 0–1 Al-Ettifaq

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Neom (Local)

Prediction 48.88%2.05fair odd
EV -1.26%
Edge -0.623%
Kelly -1.23%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.51%48.88%48.93%51.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.831.832.0259.88%54.75%54.79%49.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Ettifaq (Visit)

Prediction 25.70%3.89fair odd
EV -2.34%
Edge -0.616%
Kelly -0.836%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.96%25.65%25.82%26.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.583.603.8030.77%27.96%27.78%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.42%3.93fair odd
EV -5.45%
Edge -1.46%
Kelly -2.00%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.72

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.53%25.46%25.25%26.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.563.603.7230.30%28.08%27.78%26.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Neom (Local): 48.88%; Al-Ettifaq (Visit): 25.70%; Draw: 25.42%. For Neom (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.05. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.02, with an expected value of -1.26%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.56%EV -1.26%E -0.623%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.61I 27.70%NM 26.61%EV -7.22%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.83%EV -5.45%E -1.46%K -2.00%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-17 15:30
Coral🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.34%EV -4.68%E -2.40%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -7.48%E -2.08%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -5.95%E -1.61%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-17 15:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -4.68%E -2.40%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -7.48%E -2.08%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -8.50%E -2.36%K -3.27%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-17 15:15
Unibet (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.98%EV -4.68%E -2.40%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -10.05%E -2.87%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -5.95%E -1.61%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-17 15:15
Pinnacle🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.24%EV -5.66%E -2.93%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.79I 26.39%NM 25.07%EV -2.60%E -0.685%K -0.931%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.68%EV -5.95%E -1.61%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-17 15:25
betfred_uk🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.92%EV -7.12%E -3.75%K -7.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.78%EV -12.62%E -3.71%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -8.50%E -2.36%K -3.27%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-17 15:35
SportsBet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.78%EV -7.61%E -4.03%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -7.48%E -2.08%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -8.50%E -2.36%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-17 15:30
Paddy Power🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.34%EV -8.59%E -4.59%K -9.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -10.05%E -2.87%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -11.04%E -3.15%K -4.42%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-17 15:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.34%EV -8.59%E -4.59%K -9.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -10.05%E -2.87%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -11.04%E -3.15%K -4.42%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-17 15:30
Sky Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.89%EV -9.57%E -5.17%K -11.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -12.62%E -3.71%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -13.58%E -3.99%K -5.66%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-17 15:35
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.51%EV -9.57%E -5.17%K -11.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.85%EV -12.62%E -3.71%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.64%EV -16.12%E -4.89%K -7.01%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-17 15:20
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.51%EV -9.57%E -5.17%K -11.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.85%EV -12.62%E -3.71%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.64%EV -16.12%E -4.89%K -7.01%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-17 15:24
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.51%EV -9.57%E -5.17%K -11.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.85%EV -12.62%E -3.71%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.64%EV -16.12%E -4.89%K -7.01%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-17 15:20
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.51%EV -9.57%E -5.17%K -11.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.85%EV -12.62%E -3.71%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.64%EV -16.12%E -4.89%K -7.01%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-17 15:20
Tipico (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.68%EV -12.01%E -6.67%K -15.02%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.66%EV -4.91%E -1.33%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.66%EV -5.95%E -1.61%K -2.21%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-17 15:35
Betclic (FR)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 49.00%EV -12.50%E -6.98%K -15.82%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 25.95%EV -13.13%E -3.89%K -5.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.06%EV -11.04%E -3.15%K -4.42%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-17 15:14
Unibet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.44%EV -13.48%E -7.62%K -17.50%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.96%EV -2.34%E -0.616%K -0.836%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.61%EV -5.95%E -1.61%K -2.21%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-17 15:20
Unibet (SE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.44%EV -13.48%E -7.62%K -17.50%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.96%EV -2.34%E -0.616%K -0.836%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.61%EV -5.95%E -1.61%K -2.21%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-17 15:20
Grosvenor🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.44%EV -13.48%E -7.62%K -17.50%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.96%EV -2.34%E -0.616%K -0.836%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.61%EV -5.95%E -1.61%K -2.21%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-17 15:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.44%EV -13.48%E -7.62%K -17.50%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.96%EV -2.34%E -0.616%K -0.836%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.61%EV -5.95%E -1.61%K -2.21%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-17 15:20
Svenska Spel🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.44%EV -13.48%E -7.62%K -17.50%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.96%EV -2.34%E -0.616%K -0.836%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.61%EV -5.95%E -1.61%K -2.21%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-17 15:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.44%EV -13.48%E -7.62%K -17.50%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.96%EV -2.34%E -0.616%K -0.836%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.61%EV -5.95%E -1.61%K -2.21%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-17 15:20
BoyleSports🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 49.06%EV -14.46%E -8.26%K -19.28%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.42%EV -16.47%E -5.07%K -7.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.53%EV -11.04%E -3.15%K -4.42%G +0.000%16.5%2026-10-17 15:35
LiveScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 51.19%EV -14.95%E -8.59%K -20.20%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.07%EV -4.91%E -1.33%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.74%EV -8.50%E -2.36%K -3.27%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-17 15:20
Virgin Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 51.19%EV -14.95%E -8.59%K -20.20%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.07%EV -4.91%E -1.33%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.74%EV -8.50%E -2.36%K -3.27%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-17 15:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.33%EV -15.43%E -8.92%K -21.14%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.00%EV -4.91%E -1.33%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.67%EV -8.50%E -2.36%K -3.27%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-17 15:20
Unibet (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 48.96%EV -15.92%E -9.26%K -22.11%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 25.91%EV -16.47%E -5.07%K -7.32%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.14%EV -14.85%E -4.43%K -6.32%G +0.000%18.8%2026-10-17 15:15
PMU (FR)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 51.16%EV -18.37%E -11.00%K -27.41%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.07%EV -8.76%E -2.47%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 24.77%EV -12.31%E -3.57%K -5.02%G +0.000%17.0%2026-10-17 15:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.53%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.08%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.40%1.0%2026-10-17 15:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.53%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.08%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.40%1.0%2026-10-17 15:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.53%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.08%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.40%1.0%2026-10-17 15:30
Smarkets◎1.99I 50.25%NM 49.65%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.01%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.33%1.2%2026-10-17 15:35
Kalshi◎1.96I 51.02%NM 50.02%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.51%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.47%2.0%2026-10-17 15:15