The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Neom v Abha Club

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 14:00 UTC

Final: Neom 2–0 Abha Club

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Neom (Local)

Prediction 61.43%1.63fair odd
EV -3.56%
Edge -2.27%
Kelly -6.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.11%61.44%61.61%64.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.371.501.501.5772.99%66.74%66.67%63.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Abha Club (Visit)

Prediction 16.31%6.13fair odd
EV +1.13%
Edge +0.182%
Kelly +0.217%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 6.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.69%16.26%16.34%17.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.805.345.156.2020.83%18.72%19.42%16.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.26%4.49fair odd
EV -3.61%
Edge -0.834%
Kelly -1.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.18%22.29%22.05%24.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.553.933.804.3328.17%25.45%26.32%23.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Neom (Local): 61.43%; Abha Club (Visit): 16.31%; Draw: 22.26%. For Abha Club (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.13. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.13%.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.13%EV -12.77%E -8.99%K -30.41%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.69%EV +1.13%E +0.182%K +0.217%G +0.002%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.18%EV -4.28%E -0.995%K -1.30%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-24 13:50
1xBet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.50%EV -4.17%E -2.67%K -7.45%G +0.000%6.19I 16.16%NM 15.50%EV +0.966%E +0.156%K +0.186%G +0.002%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.01%EV -7.17%E -1.72%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-24 13:55
Pinnacle🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.99%EV -4.79%E -3.09%K -8.70%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.50%EV -0.502%E -0.082%K -0.098%G +0.000%4.02I 24.88%NM 23.52%EV -10.51%E -2.61%K -3.48%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-24 13:45
SportsBet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.20%EV -9.70%E -6.60%K -20.64%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.50%EV -3.76%E -0.638%K -0.768%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.30%EV -8.73%E -2.13%K -2.82%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-24 13:45
Coral🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.75%EV -6.02%E -3.93%K -11.35%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.43%EV -6.21%E -1.08%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.82%EV -3.61%E -0.834%K -1.08%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-24 13:45
Unibet (UK)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.65%EV -6.63%E -4.36%K -12.75%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -6.21%E -1.08%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.05%EV -5.39%E -1.27%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-24 13:49
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.29%EV -6.02%E -3.93%K -11.35%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.05%EV -10.29%E -1.87%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.66%EV -3.61%E -0.834%K -1.08%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-24 13:45
betfred_uk🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -7.86%E -5.24%K -15.72%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -10.29%E -1.87%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -10.96%E -2.74%K -3.65%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-20 18:20
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.66%EV -11.54%E -8.02%K -26.24%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -10.29%E -1.87%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.20%EV -10.96%E -2.74%K -3.65%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-24 13:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.66%EV -11.54%E -8.02%K -26.24%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -10.29%E -1.87%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.20%EV -10.96%E -2.74%K -3.65%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-24 13:50
Sky Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.31%EV -11.54%E -8.02%K -26.24%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.05%EV -10.29%E -1.87%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.64%EV -13.18%E -3.38%K -4.55%G +0.000%13.3%2026-10-24 13:39
BoyleSports🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 61.62%EV -14.00%E -10.00%K -35.00%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.68%EV -10.29%E -1.87%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.70%EV -15.41%E -4.05%K -5.50%G +0.000%15.9%2026-10-24 13:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 62.14%EV -13.39%E -9.49%K -32.65%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.23%EV -11.92%E -2.21%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 21.63%EV -9.84%E -2.43%K -3.23%G +0.000%14.1%2026-10-24 13:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 61.44%EV -8.47%E -5.69%K -17.29%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.27%EV -13.55%E -2.56%K -3.15%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.29%EV -4.28%E -0.995%K -1.30%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-24 13:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 60.93%EV -9.70%E -6.60%K -20.64%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.22%EV -15.18%E -2.92%K -3.61%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.85%EV -8.73%E -2.13%K -2.82%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-24 13:50
Unibet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.11%EV -3.56%E -2.27%K -6.24%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.89%EV -16.81%E -3.30%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.01%EV -15.41%E -4.05%K -5.50%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-24 13:35
Unibet (NL)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.26%EV -4.17%E -2.67%K -7.45%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.82%EV -16.81%E -3.30%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -15.41%E -4.05%K -5.50%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-24 13:35
Grosvenor🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.26%EV -4.17%E -2.67%K -7.45%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.82%EV -16.81%E -3.30%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -15.41%E -4.05%K -5.50%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-24 13:35
Unibet (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.26%EV -4.17%E -2.67%K -7.45%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.82%EV -16.81%E -3.30%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -15.41%E -4.05%K -5.50%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-24 13:35
ATG (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.26%EV -4.17%E -2.67%K -7.45%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.82%EV -16.81%E -3.30%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -15.41%E -4.05%K -5.50%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-24 13:35
Svenska Spel🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.26%EV -4.17%E -2.67%K -7.45%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.82%EV -16.81%E -3.30%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -15.41%E -4.05%K -5.50%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-24 13:35
Unibet (FR)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 61.38%EV -15.84%E -11.57%K -42.82%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 16.49%EV -16.81%E -3.30%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.13%EV -15.41%E -4.05%K -5.50%G +0.000%18.9%2026-10-24 13:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.16%EV -6.02%E -3.93%K -11.35%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.80%EV -18.44%E -3.69%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.05%EV -17.63%E -4.77%K -6.53%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-24 13:35
LiveScore Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.16%EV -6.02%E -3.93%K -11.35%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.80%EV -18.44%E -3.69%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.05%EV -17.63%E -4.77%K -6.53%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-24 13:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 58.48%EV -7.24%E -4.80%K -14.20%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.66%EV -18.44%E -3.69%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.86%EV -17.63%E -4.77%K -6.53%G +0.000%13.3%2026-10-24 13:35
888sport🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 58.82%EV -7.86%E -5.24%K -15.72%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.65%EV -18.44%E -3.69%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.53%EV -16.52%E -4.41%K -6.01%G +0.000%13.3%2026-10-24 13:30
William Hill🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 58.82%EV -7.86%E -5.24%K -15.72%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.65%EV -18.44%E -3.69%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.53%EV -16.52%E -4.41%K -6.01%G +0.000%13.3%2026-10-24 13:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 58.82%EV -7.86%E -5.24%K -15.72%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.65%EV -18.44%E -3.69%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.53%EV -16.52%E -4.41%K -6.01%G +0.000%13.3%2026-10-24 13:35
888sport (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 58.82%EV -7.86%E -5.24%K -15.72%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.65%EV -18.44%E -3.69%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.53%EV -16.52%E -4.41%K -6.01%G +0.000%13.3%2026-10-24 13:30
PMU (FR)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 58.13%EV -9.70%E -6.60%K -20.64%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 17.80%EV -21.71%E -4.52%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.07%EV -20.97%E -5.91%K -8.22%G +0.000%17.0%2026-10-24 13:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.56I 64.10%NM 63.17%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.93%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.90%1.5%2026-10-24 13:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.56I 64.10%NM 63.17%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.93%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.90%1.5%2026-10-24 13:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.56I 64.10%NM 63.17%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.93%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.90%1.5%2026-10-24 13:40
Kalshi◎1.54I 64.94%NM 63.72%6.67I 14.99%NM 14.71%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.57%1.9%2026-10-24 13:50
Smarkets◎1.54I 64.94%NM 63.47%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.81%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.72%2.3%2026-10-24 13:55

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