The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Diriyah Club v Neom

Kickoff: 2026-10-30 14:50 UTC

Final: Diriyah Club 1–2 Neom

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Diriyah Club (Local)

Prediction 39.78%2.51fair odd
EV -2.13%
Edge -0.867%
Kelly -1.46%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.90%39.38%39.88%41.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.332.332.4648.78%42.99%42.92%40.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Neom (Visit)

Prediction 32.98%3.03fair odd
EV -4.04%
Edge -1.39%
Kelly -2.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.91%33.33%32.92%35.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.692.692.9140.00%37.19%37.17%34.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.24%3.67fair odd
EV -3.30%
Edge -0.929%
Kelly -1.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.47%27.29%27.20%28.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.273.293.5532.26%30.58%30.44%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Diriyah Club (Local): 39.78%; Neom (Visit): 32.98%; Draw: 27.24%. For Diriyah Club (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.51. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.46, with an expected value of -2.13%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 38.98%EV -2.13%E -0.867%K -1.46%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 34.01%EV -7.01%E -2.48%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.01%EV -3.30%E -0.929%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-30 14:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.53%EV -2.53%E -1.03%K -1.75%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -7.66%E -2.74%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.76%EV -7.39%E -2.17%K -3.08%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-30 14:35
Coral🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.53%EV -2.53%E -1.03%K -1.75%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -7.66%E -2.74%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.76%EV -7.39%E -2.17%K -3.08%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-30 14:35
Tipico (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.29%EV -2.53%E -1.03%K -1.75%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.83%EV -15.91%E -6.24%K -10.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -7.39%E -2.17%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-30 14:30
Pinnacle🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.80%EV -4.52%E -1.88%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 32.83%EV -4.04%E -1.39%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.49I 28.65%NM 27.37%EV -4.93%E -1.41%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-30 14:45
Sky Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.90%EV -4.52%E -1.88%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.42%EV -17.56%E -7.02%K -11.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.68%EV -12.83%E -4.01%K -5.83%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-30 14:20
Unibet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.18%EV -5.32%E -2.23%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.29%EV -12.61%E -4.76%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.53%EV -10.11%E -3.06%K -4.40%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-30 14:45
Grosvenor🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.18%EV -5.32%E -2.23%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.29%EV -12.61%E -4.76%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.53%EV -10.11%E -3.06%K -4.40%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-30 14:45
Unibet (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.18%EV -5.32%E -2.23%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.29%EV -12.61%E -4.76%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.53%EV -10.11%E -3.06%K -4.40%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-30 14:45
Unibet (NL)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.18%EV -5.32%E -2.23%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.29%EV -12.61%E -4.76%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.53%EV -10.11%E -3.06%K -4.40%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-30 14:45
Svenska Spel🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.18%EV -5.32%E -2.23%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.29%EV -12.61%E -4.76%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.53%EV -10.11%E -3.06%K -4.40%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-30 14:45
ATG (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.18%EV -5.32%E -2.23%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.29%EV -12.61%E -4.76%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.53%EV -10.11%E -3.06%K -4.40%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-30 14:45
Unibet (UK)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.75%EV -6.51%E -2.77%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.78%EV -6.02%E -2.11%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -7.39%E -2.17%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-30 14:45
SportsBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.03%EV -6.51%E -2.77%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -7.66%E -2.74%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.22%EV -11.47%E -3.53%K -5.10%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-30 14:45
LiveScore Bet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 38.11%EV -7.30%E -3.13%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.15%EV -14.26%E -5.48%K -8.91%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.75%EV -12.83%E -4.01%K -5.83%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-30 14:45
Virgin Bet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 38.11%EV -7.30%E -3.13%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.15%EV -14.26%E -5.48%K -8.91%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.75%EV -12.83%E -4.01%K -5.83%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-30 14:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 38.21%EV -7.70%E -3.32%K -5.84%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.09%EV -14.26%E -5.48%K -8.91%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.70%EV -12.83%E -4.01%K -5.83%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-30 14:45
betfred_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -8.50%E -3.69%K -6.54%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -9.31%E -3.39%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -10.11%E -3.06%K -4.40%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-30 14:45
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.37%EV -8.50%E -3.69%K -6.54%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.34%EV -7.66%E -2.74%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.30%EV -12.83%E -4.01%K -5.83%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-30 14:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.37%EV -8.50%E -3.69%K -6.54%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.34%EV -7.66%E -2.74%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.30%EV -12.83%E -4.01%K -5.83%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-30 14:45
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.55%EV -8.50%E -3.69%K -6.54%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.84%EV -10.96%E -4.06%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.60%EV -15.56%E -5.02%K -7.41%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-30 14:35
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.55%EV -8.50%E -3.69%K -6.54%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.84%EV -10.96%E -4.06%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.60%EV -15.56%E -5.02%K -7.41%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-30 14:35
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.55%EV -8.50%E -3.69%K -6.54%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.84%EV -10.96%E -4.06%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.60%EV -15.56%E -5.02%K -7.41%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-30 14:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.55%EV -8.50%E -3.69%K -6.54%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.84%EV -10.96%E -4.06%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.60%EV -15.56%E -5.02%K -7.41%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-30 14:35
Winamax (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.32%EV -10.49%E -4.66%K -8.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.99%EV -9.31%E -3.39%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -7.39%E -2.17%K -3.08%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-30 14:45
PMU (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.08%EV -10.49%E -4.66%K -8.39%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.28%EV -17.56%E -7.02%K -11.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.64%EV -15.56%E -5.02%K -7.41%G +0.000%16.7%2026-10-30 14:45
Winamax (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.46%EV -12.48%E -5.67%K -10.40%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.97%EV -10.96%E -4.06%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.57%EV -8.75%E -2.61%K -3.72%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-30 14:45
BoyleSports🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.11%EV -12.48%E -5.67%K -10.40%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.42%EV -17.56%E -7.02%K -11.71%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.47%EV -11.47%E -3.53%K -5.10%G +0.000%16.2%2026-10-30 14:30
Betclic (FR)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 40.43%EV -13.67%E -6.30%K -11.68%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 32.74%EV -11.62%E -4.34%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 26.83%EV -10.93%E -3.34%K -4.81%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-30 14:33
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 41.25%EV -18.44%E -9.00%K -17.57%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 31.91%EV -12.61%E -4.76%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 26.84%EV -14.20%E -4.51%K -6.60%G +0.000%18.3%2026-10-30 14:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.54I 39.37%NM 39.03%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.05%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.93%0.9%2026-10-30 14:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.54I 39.37%NM 38.87%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.91%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.21%1.3%2026-10-30 14:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.54I 39.37%NM 38.87%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.91%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.21%1.3%2026-10-30 14:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.54I 39.37%NM 38.87%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.91%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.21%1.3%2026-10-30 14:45
Kalshi◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.21%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.34%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.46%2.0%2026-10-30 14:35

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