The School of Odds
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Diriyah Club v Al-Taawoun

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 18:00 UTC

Final: Diriyah Club 1–1 Al-Taawoun

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Diriyah Club (Local)

Prediction 50.40%1.98fair odd
EV -3.23%
Edge -1.68%
Kelly -3.51%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.48%50.51%50.53%53.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.661.811.811.9260.24%55.34%55.25%52.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Taawoun (Visit)

Prediction 23.96%4.17fair odd
EV -1.77%
Edge -0.431%
Kelly -0.569%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.26%23.81%23.88%24.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.733.754.1028.57%26.81%26.67%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.64%3.90fair odd
EV -4.11%
Edge -1.10%
Kelly -1.50%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.67%25.68%25.59%26.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.523.553.7430.30%28.41%28.17%26.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Diriyah Club (Local): 50.40%; Al-Taawoun (Visit): 23.96%; Draw: 25.64%. For Al-Taawoun (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.17. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.10, with an expected value of -1.77%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.98%EV -3.23%E -1.68%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.29%EV -5.36%E -1.36%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.73%EV -4.36%E -1.17%K -1.60%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-17 17:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.53%EV -3.73%E -1.96%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -8.95%E -2.36%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.57%EV -5.13%E -1.39%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-17 17:05
Coral🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.53%EV -3.73%E -1.96%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -8.95%E -2.36%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.57%EV -5.13%E -1.39%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-17 17:05
Unibet (UK)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.89%EV -5.25%E -2.79%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -6.56%E -1.68%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.06%EV -7.70%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-17 17:05
Pinnacle🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 51.02%EV -6.25%E -3.36%K -7.27%G +0.000%4.02I 24.88%NM 23.61%EV -3.68%E -0.916%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.37%EV -4.11%E -1.10%K -1.50%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-17 17:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%EV -6.76%E -3.65%K -7.95%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -6.56%E -1.68%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -5.13%E -1.39%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-17 17:15
888sport🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.48%EV -7.77%E -4.24%K -9.36%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.64%EV -13.75%E -3.82%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.88%EV -15.39%E -4.66%K -6.69%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-17 17:10
William Hill🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.48%EV -7.77%E -4.24%K -9.36%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.64%EV -13.75%E -3.82%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.88%EV -15.39%E -4.66%K -6.69%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-17 17:10
888sport (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.48%EV -7.77%E -4.24%K -9.36%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.64%EV -13.75%E -3.82%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.88%EV -15.39%E -4.66%K -6.69%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-17 17:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.48%EV -7.77%E -4.24%K -9.36%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.64%EV -13.75%E -3.82%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.88%EV -15.39%E -4.66%K -6.69%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-17 17:10
SportsBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.39%EV -8.27%E -4.54%K -10.09%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.13%EV -8.95%E -2.36%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -7.70%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-17 17:15
Winamax (DE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.06%EV -8.27%E -4.54%K -10.09%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.63%EV -11.35%E -3.07%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.31%EV -7.70%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-17 17:05
Unibet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.19%EV -8.77%E -4.85%K -10.83%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.22%EV -10.15%E -2.71%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.59%EV -8.98%E -2.53%K -3.52%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-17 17:25
Unibet (NL)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.19%EV -8.77%E -4.85%K -10.83%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.22%EV -10.15%E -2.71%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.59%EV -8.98%E -2.53%K -3.52%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-17 17:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.19%EV -8.77%E -4.85%K -10.83%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.22%EV -10.15%E -2.71%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.59%EV -8.98%E -2.53%K -3.52%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-17 17:25
Grosvenor🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.19%EV -8.77%E -4.85%K -10.83%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.22%EV -10.15%E -2.71%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.59%EV -8.98%E -2.53%K -3.52%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-17 17:25
ATG (SE)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.19%EV -8.77%E -4.85%K -10.83%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.22%EV -10.15%E -2.71%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.59%EV -8.98%E -2.53%K -3.52%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-17 17:30
Svenska Spel🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.19%EV -8.77%E -4.85%K -10.83%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.22%EV -10.15%E -2.71%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.59%EV -8.98%E -2.53%K -3.52%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-17 17:25
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.67%EV -9.28%E -5.15%K -11.60%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -8.95%E -2.36%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.33%EV -7.70%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-17 17:15
betfred_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.51%EV -9.28%E -5.15%K -11.60%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -10.15%E -2.71%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -7.70%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-17 17:15
Winamax (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.65%EV -9.28%E -5.15%K -11.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -13.75%E -3.82%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -10.26%E -2.93%K -4.10%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-17 17:05
Sky Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.65%EV -9.28%E -5.15%K -11.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -13.75%E -3.82%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -10.26%E -2.93%K -4.10%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-17 17:28
Virgin Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 50.23%EV -10.79%E -6.10%K -14.01%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.36%EV -12.55%E -3.44%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.40%EV -10.26%E -2.93%K -4.10%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-17 17:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 50.23%EV -10.79%E -6.10%K -14.01%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.36%EV -12.55%E -3.44%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.40%EV -10.26%E -2.93%K -4.10%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-17 17:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 50.19%EV -11.29%E -6.42%K -14.86%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.20%EV -12.55%E -3.44%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.61%EV -11.54%E -3.35%K -4.71%G +0.000%13.2%2026-10-17 17:25
BoyleSports🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 49.25%EV -11.80%E -6.74%K -15.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.63%EV -16.14%E -4.61%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.12%EV -15.39%E -4.66%K -6.69%G +0.000%16.0%2026-10-17 17:24
Tipico (DE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.07%EV -13.31%E -7.74%K -18.49%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.26%EV -1.77%E -0.431%K -0.569%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.67%EV -5.13%E -1.39%K -1.90%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-17 17:20
Betclic (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 50.95%EV -13.31%E -7.74%K -18.49%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 23.50%EV -10.63%E -2.85%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 25.55%EV -12.06%E -3.51%K -4.96%G +0.000%14.1%2026-10-17 17:33
PMU (FR)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 50.20%EV -13.81%E -8.08%K -19.46%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.18%EV -14.94%E -4.21%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.62%EV -14.11%E -4.21%K -6.00%G +0.000%16.5%2026-10-17 17:25
Unibet (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 50.75%EV -16.33%E -9.84%K -24.75%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 23.73%EV -14.94%E -4.21%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.53%EV -15.39%E -4.66%K -6.69%G +0.000%18.7%2026-10-17 17:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.93I 51.81%NM 51.17%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.51%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.32%1.3%2026-10-17 17:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.92I 52.08%NM 51.30%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.45%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.25%1.5%2026-10-17 17:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.92I 52.08%NM 51.30%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.45%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.25%1.5%2026-10-17 17:50
Kalshi◎1.89I 52.91%NM 51.41%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.34%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.26%2.9%2026-10-17 17:05
Smarkets◎1.91I 52.36%NM 50.80%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.67%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.53%3.1%2026-10-17 17:55