The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Diriyah Club v Al-Riyadh

Kickoff: 2026-10-20 15:00 UTC

Final: Diriyah Club 1–0 Al-Riyadh

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Diriyah Club (Local)

Prediction 48.54%2.06fair odd
EV -2.92%
Edge -1.46%
Kelly -2.92%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.16%48.51%48.78%50.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.681.841.842.0059.52%54.28%54.35%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Riyadh (Visit)

Prediction 25.61%3.90fair odd
EV +7.05%
Edge +1.69%
Kelly +2.22%
Growth +0.156%

assuming max odds 4.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.80%25.63%25.31%26.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.673.704.1830.30%27.27%27.03%23.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.85%3.87fair odd
EV -4.10%
Edge -1.10%
Kelly -1.51%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.66%25.86%25.91%27.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.433.453.7131.25%29.14%28.99%26.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Diriyah Club (Local): 48.54%; Al-Riyadh (Visit): 25.61%; Draw: 25.85%. For Al-Riyadh (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.90. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.18, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.05%.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.48%EV -7.77%E -4.09%K -8.64%G +0.000%4.18I 23.92%NM 22.95%EV +7.05%E +1.69%K +2.22%G +0.156%3.61I 27.70%NM 26.57%EV -6.68%E -1.85%K -2.56%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-20 14:59
Unibet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 50.71%EV -13.11%E -7.33%K -16.60%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.98%EV +1.16%E +0.294%K +0.394%G +0.005%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.31%EV -10.82%E -3.14%K -4.42%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-20 14:20
Unibet (SE)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 50.71%EV -13.11%E -7.33%K -16.60%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.98%EV +1.16%E +0.294%K +0.394%G +0.005%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.31%EV -10.82%E -3.14%K -4.42%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-20 14:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 50.71%EV -13.11%E -7.33%K -16.60%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.98%EV +1.16%E +0.294%K +0.394%G +0.005%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.31%EV -10.82%E -3.14%K -4.42%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-20 14:20
Svenska Spel🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 50.71%EV -13.11%E -7.33%K -16.60%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.98%EV +1.16%E +0.294%K +0.394%G +0.005%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.31%EV -10.82%E -3.14%K -4.42%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-20 14:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 50.71%EV -13.11%E -7.33%K -16.60%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.98%EV +1.16%E +0.294%K +0.394%G +0.005%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.31%EV -10.82%E -3.14%K -4.42%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-20 14:20
Grosvenor🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 50.71%EV -13.11%E -7.33%K -16.60%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.98%EV +1.16%E +0.294%K +0.394%G +0.005%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.31%EV -10.82%E -3.14%K -4.42%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-20 14:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 50.64%EV -14.57%E -8.28%K -19.17%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.15%EV -1.40%E -0.364%K -0.491%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.21%EV -12.11%E -3.56%K -5.05%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-20 14:20
Virgin Bet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 50.64%EV -14.57%E -8.28%K -19.17%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.15%EV -1.40%E -0.364%K -0.491%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.21%EV -12.11%E -3.56%K -5.05%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-20 14:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.58%EV -15.05%E -8.60%K -20.07%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.99%EV -1.40%E -0.364%K -0.491%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.42%EV -13.40%E -4.00%K -5.70%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-20 14:20
Pinnacle🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.24%EV -6.32%E -3.27%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 25.14%EV -3.19%E -0.845%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.71I 26.95%NM 25.62%EV -4.10%E -1.10%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-20 14:50
PMU (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 50.89%EV -18.45%E -10.98%K -27.14%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.80%EV -3.96%E -1.06%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.31%EV -15.99%E -4.92%K -7.11%G +0.000%17.0%2026-10-20 14:20
Coral🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.35%EV -2.92%E -1.46%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.59%EV -5.24%E -1.42%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -9.53%E -2.72%K -3.81%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-20 14:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.98%EV -5.35%E -2.74%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -5.24%E -1.42%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -9.53%E -2.72%K -3.81%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-20 14:45
SportsBet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.03%EV -9.23%E -4.94%K -10.61%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.78%EV -5.24%E -1.42%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -9.53%E -2.72%K -3.81%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-20 14:50
Tipico (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.68%EV -12.63%E -7.02%K -15.78%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.66%EV -5.24%E -1.42%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.66%EV -4.36%E -1.18%K -1.61%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-20 14:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.27%EV -3.89%E -1.96%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -7.80%E -2.17%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -9.53%E -2.72%K -3.81%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-20 14:45
betfred_uk🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.29%EV -7.77%E -4.09%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -7.80%E -2.17%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -9.53%E -2.72%K -3.81%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-20 14:15
Paddy Power🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.96%EV -10.20%E -5.51%K -12.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.16%EV -7.80%E -2.17%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.88%EV -9.53%E -2.72%K -3.81%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-20 14:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.96%EV -10.20%E -5.51%K -12.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.16%EV -7.80%E -2.17%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.88%EV -9.53%E -2.72%K -3.81%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-20 14:50
Sky Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.48%EV -11.17%E -6.10%K -13.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.64%EV -7.80%E -2.17%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.88%EV -14.70%E -4.45%K -6.39%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-20 14:10
BoyleSports🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.00%EV -15.05%E -8.60%K -20.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.00%EV -10.36%E -2.96%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.00%EV -9.53%E -2.72%K -3.81%G +0.000%14.3%2026-10-20 14:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 48.71%EV -12.63%E -7.02%K -15.78%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 25.27%EV -11.13%E -3.21%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 26.02%EV -12.89%E -3.82%K -5.44%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-20 14:45
Winamax (DE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.50%EV -6.80%E -3.54%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.44%EV -11.64%E -3.38%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.06%EV -9.53%E -2.72%K -3.81%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-20 14:45
Winamax (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 47.48%EV -8.74%E -4.65%K -9.94%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.65%EV -14.20%E -4.24%K -6.04%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.87%EV -10.82%E -3.14%K -4.42%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-20 14:45
888sport🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.16%EV -7.29%E -3.82%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.72%EV -15.49%E -4.69%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.13%EV -15.99%E -4.92%K -7.11%G +0.000%13.4%2026-10-20 14:50
William Hill🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.16%EV -7.29%E -3.82%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.72%EV -15.49%E -4.69%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.13%EV -15.99%E -4.92%K -7.11%G +0.000%13.4%2026-10-20 14:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.16%EV -7.29%E -3.82%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.72%EV -15.49%E -4.69%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.13%EV -15.99%E -4.92%K -7.11%G +0.000%13.4%2026-10-20 14:50
888sport (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.16%EV -7.29%E -3.82%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.72%EV -15.49%E -4.69%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.13%EV -15.99%E -4.92%K -7.11%G +0.000%13.4%2026-10-20 14:50
Unibet (FR)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 48.43%EV -16.03%E -9.26%K -21.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.39%EV -15.49%E -4.69%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.18%EV -17.28%E -5.40%K -7.86%G +0.000%19.4%2026-10-20 14:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.97I 50.76%NM 50.03%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.04%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.94%1.5%2026-10-20 14:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.99I 50.25%NM 49.48%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.61%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.91%1.6%2026-10-20 14:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.98I 50.51%NM 49.60%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.55%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.85%1.8%2026-10-20 14:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.98I 50.51%NM 49.60%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.55%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.85%1.8%2026-10-20 14:55
Kalshi◎1.96I 51.02%NM 50.02%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.51%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.47%2.0%2026-10-20 14:35