The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Diriyah Club v Al-Kholood

Kickoff: 2026-08-26 18:00 UTC

Final: Diriyah Club 1–1 Al-Kholood

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Diriyah Club (Local)

Prediction 55.49%1.80fair odd
EV -1.79%
Edge -1.01%
Kelly -2.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.70%55.48%55.41%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.681.671.7763.69%59.58%59.88%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Kholood (Visit)

Prediction 20.93%4.78fair odd
EV +0.451%
Edge +0.094%
Kelly +0.119%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 4.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.13%20.98%21.05%23.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.204.004.8026.67%23.80%25.00%20.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.59%4.24fair odd
EV -1.17%
Edge -0.280%
Kelly -0.367%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.19

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.39%23.53%23.54%25.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.713.604.1929.41%26.92%27.78%23.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Diriyah Club (Local): 55.49%; Al-Kholood (Visit): 20.93%; Draw: 23.59%. For Al-Kholood (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.78. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.451%.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.48%EV -12.89%E -8.21%K -22.61%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.13%EV +0.451%E +0.094%K +0.119%G +0.001%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.39%EV -3.30%E -0.804%K -1.06%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-26 17:49
1xBet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.85%EV -1.79%E -1.01%K -2.32%G +0.000%4.61I 21.69%NM 21.06%EV -3.53%E -0.765%K -0.976%G +0.000%4.03I 24.81%NM 24.09%EV -4.95%E -1.23%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-26 17:50
Coral🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.39%EV -5.67%E -3.34%K -8.11%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -3.73%E -0.812%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -8.01%E -2.05%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-26 17:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.04%EV -5.67%E -3.34%K -8.11%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.34%EV -3.73%E -0.812%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -10.37%E -2.73%K -3.70%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-26 17:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.48%EV -7.34%E -4.39%K -10.95%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.14%EV -3.73%E -0.812%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.38%EV -10.37%E -2.73%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-26 17:40
SportsBet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.42%EV -9.56%E -5.86%K -15.17%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.99%EV -3.73%E -0.812%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.58%EV -8.01%E -2.05%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-26 17:44
Betclic (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.71%EV -11.22%E -7.01%K -18.70%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.72%EV -3.73%E -0.812%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.57%EV -9.19%E -2.39%K -3.23%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-26 17:39
betfred_uk🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.05%EV -7.34%E -4.39%K -10.95%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -5.83%E -1.29%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.52%EV -11.55%E -3.08%K -4.20%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-26 17:44
Paddy Power🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.98%EV -10.11%E -6.24%K -16.31%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.15%EV -5.83%E -1.29%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.87%EV -10.37%E -2.73%K -3.70%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-26 17:44
Pinnacle🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.33%EV -6.78%E -4.04%K -9.98%G +0.000%4.49I 22.27%NM 21.08%EV -6.04%E -1.34%K -1.73%G +0.000%4.19I 23.87%NM 22.59%EV -1.17%E -0.280%K -0.367%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-26 17:50
Sky Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.67%EV -11.22%E -7.01%K -18.70%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.57%EV -9.38%E -2.17%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.75%EV -11.55%E -3.08%K -4.20%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-26 17:44
Winamax (DE)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.50%EV -9.00%E -5.49%K -14.07%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.17%EV -10.01%E -2.33%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.34%EV -8.01%E -2.05%K -2.76%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-26 17:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 55.07%EV -11.78%E -7.41%K -19.96%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.60%EV -11.06%E -2.60%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.32%EV -15.09%E -4.19%K -5.80%G +0.000%14.2%2026-08-26 17:39
Winamax (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.19%EV -10.11%E -6.24%K -16.31%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.29%EV -12.11%E -2.88%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.53%EV -10.37%E -2.73%K -3.70%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-26 17:40
888sport🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.15%EV -7.34%E -4.39%K -10.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.19%EV -16.29%E -4.07%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.66%EV -15.09%E -4.19%K -5.80%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-26 17:30
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.15%EV -7.34%E -4.39%K -10.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.19%EV -16.29%E -4.07%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.66%EV -15.09%E -4.19%K -5.80%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-26 17:34
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.15%EV -7.34%E -4.39%K -10.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.19%EV -16.29%E -4.07%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.66%EV -15.09%E -4.19%K -5.80%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-26 17:30
888sport (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.15%EV -7.34%E -4.39%K -10.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.19%EV -16.29%E -4.07%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.66%EV -15.09%E -4.19%K -5.80%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-26 17:30
Unibet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.84%EV -2.90%E -1.66%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.97%EV -17.34%E -4.39%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.20%EV -15.09%E -4.19%K -5.80%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-26 17:54
Grosvenor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.84%EV -2.90%E -1.66%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.97%EV -17.34%E -4.39%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.20%EV -15.09%E -4.19%K -5.80%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-26 17:54
Unibet (NL)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.84%EV -2.90%E -1.66%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.97%EV -17.34%E -4.39%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.20%EV -15.09%E -4.19%K -5.80%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-26 17:54
Unibet (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.84%EV -2.90%E -1.66%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.97%EV -17.34%E -4.39%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.20%EV -15.09%E -4.19%K -5.80%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-26 17:54
Svenska Spel🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.84%EV -2.90%E -1.66%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.97%EV -17.34%E -4.39%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.20%EV -15.09%E -4.19%K -5.80%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-26 17:54
ATG (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.84%EV -2.90%E -1.66%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.97%EV -17.34%E -4.39%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.20%EV -15.09%E -4.19%K -5.80%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-26 17:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 51.89%EV -5.12%E -2.99%K -7.21%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.75%EV -18.38%E -4.71%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.35%EV -17.45%E -4.98%K -6.98%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-26 17:54
Virgin Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 51.70%EV -5.67%E -3.34%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.83%EV -19.43%E -5.05%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.47%EV -18.63%E -5.40%K -7.60%G +0.000%13.8%2026-08-26 17:54
LiveScore Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 51.70%EV -5.67%E -3.34%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.83%EV -19.43%E -5.05%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.47%EV -18.63%E -5.40%K -7.60%G +0.000%13.8%2026-08-26 17:54
BoyleSports🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.06%EV -7.34%E -4.39%K -10.95%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.32%EV -20.48%E -5.39%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.63%EV -11.55%E -3.08%K -4.20%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-26 17:29
PMU (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 51.94%EV -8.45%E -5.12%K -13.00%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.85%EV -21.52%E -5.74%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.21%EV -19.81%E -5.83%K -8.25%G +0.000%16.7%2026-08-26 17:53
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.56%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.41%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.02%1.0%2026-08-26 17:44
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.56%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.41%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.02%1.0%2026-08-26 17:44
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.56%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.41%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.02%1.0%2026-08-26 17:44
Kalshi◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.49%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.78%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.73%1.1%2026-08-26 17:44
Smarkets◎1.71I 58.48%NM 57.39%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.24%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.37%1.9%2026-08-26 17:54