The School of Odds
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Al-Taawoun v Al-Qadsiah

Kickoff: 2026-10-20 15:10 UTC

Final: Al-Taawoun 0–1 Al-Qadsiah

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Taawoun (Local)

Prediction 14.45%6.92fair odd
EV +8.40%
Edge +1.12%
Kelly +1.29%
Growth +0.109%

assuming max odds 7.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.13%14.36%14.41%15.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.506.236.007.5018.18%16.06%16.67%13.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Qadsiah (Visit)

Prediction 66.93%1.49fair odd
EV -3.62%
Edge -2.51%
Kelly -8.23%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.45%66.97%66.92%68.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.261.371.361.4479.37%73.22%73.53%69.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 18.62%5.37fair odd
EV -1.71%
Edge -0.324%
Kelly -0.400%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.91%18.67%18.66%20.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.254.684.655.2823.53%21.35%21.51%18.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Taawoun (Local): 14.45%; Al-Qadsiah (Visit): 66.93%; Draw: 18.62%. For Al-Taawoun (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.92. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.40%.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.13%EV +8.40%E +1.12%K +1.29%G +0.109%1.32I 75.76%NM 68.92%EV -11.65%E -8.83%K -36.41%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.95%EV -10.65%E -2.22%K -2.80%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-20 14:55
Coral🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV +1.18%E +0.168%K +0.196%G +0.002%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -6.30%E -4.50%K -15.74%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -6.92%E -1.38%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-20 14:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV +1.18%E +0.168%K +0.196%G +0.002%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -6.30%E -4.50%K -15.74%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -6.92%E -1.38%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-20 14:55
SportsBet🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV +1.18%E +0.168%K +0.196%G +0.002%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.68%EV -8.97%E -6.60%K -24.93%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.17%EV -10.65%E -2.22%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-20 14:54
betfred_uk🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV +1.18%E +0.168%K +0.196%G +0.002%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.12%EV -8.97%E -6.60%K -24.93%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -14.37%E -3.12%K -3.99%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-20 14:55
Pinnacle🎯6.74I 14.84%NM 14.03%EV -2.58%E -0.383%K -0.450%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 68.05%EV -6.97%E -5.01%K -17.86%G +0.000%5.28I 18.94%NM 17.91%EV -1.71%E -0.324%K -0.400%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-20 15:05
Unibet (UK)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV -6.05%E -0.931%K -1.10%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.87%EV -6.30%E -4.50%K -15.74%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -6.92%E -1.38%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-20 14:45
Paddy Power🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.78%EV -6.05%E -0.931%K -1.10%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 67.36%EV -10.98%E -8.26%K -33.28%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.86%EV -11.58%E -2.44%K -3.09%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-20 14:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.70%EV -6.05%E -0.931%K -1.10%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 66.95%EV -10.98%E -8.26%K -33.28%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.36%EV -14.37%E -3.12%K -3.99%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-20 14:55
1xBet🎯6.37I 15.70%NM 15.07%EV -7.93%E -1.24%K -1.48%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.67%EV -3.62%E -2.51%K -8.23%G +0.000%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.25%EV -2.08%E -0.396%K -0.489%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-20 15:09
Sky Bet🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.32%EV -9.66%E -1.55%K -1.84%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 65.80%EV -8.97%E -6.60%K -24.93%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.89%EV -16.23%E -3.61%K -4.64%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-20 15:09
Betclic (FR)🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.01%EV -9.66%E -1.55%K -1.84%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 67.36%EV -12.99%E -9.99%K -43.30%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.63%EV -12.51%E -2.66%K -3.38%G +0.000%14.2%2026-10-20 15:02
Unibet🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -13.28%E -2.21%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 64.59%EV -5.63%E -3.99%K -13.73%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.24%EV -16.23%E -3.61%K -4.64%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-20 14:25
Unibet (SE)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -13.28%E -2.21%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 64.59%EV -5.63%E -3.99%K -13.73%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.24%EV -16.23%E -3.61%K -4.64%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-20 14:25
Unibet (NL)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -13.28%E -2.21%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 64.59%EV -5.63%E -3.99%K -13.73%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.24%EV -16.23%E -3.61%K -4.64%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-20 14:25
Grosvenor🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -13.28%E -2.21%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 64.59%EV -5.63%E -3.99%K -13.73%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.24%EV -16.23%E -3.61%K -4.64%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-20 14:25
ATG (SE)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -13.28%E -2.21%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 64.59%EV -5.63%E -3.99%K -13.73%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.24%EV -16.23%E -3.61%K -4.64%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-20 14:25
Svenska Spel🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -13.28%E -2.21%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 64.59%EV -5.63%E -3.99%K -13.73%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.24%EV -16.23%E -3.61%K -4.64%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-20 14:25
Winamax (DE)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.12%EV -13.28%E -2.21%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.73%EV -8.97%E -6.60%K -24.93%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.15%EV -6.92%E -1.38%K -1.73%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-20 15:05
William Hill🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 14.91%EV -13.28%E -2.21%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 66.26%EV -9.64%E -7.14%K -27.55%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.83%EV -11.58%E -2.44%K -3.09%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-20 15:05
888sport🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 14.76%EV -13.28%E -2.21%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 66.59%EV -10.98%E -8.26%K -33.28%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.65%EV -11.58%E -2.44%K -3.09%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-20 15:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 14.76%EV -13.28%E -2.21%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 66.59%EV -10.98%E -8.26%K -33.28%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.65%EV -11.58%E -2.44%K -3.09%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-20 15:05
888sport (SE)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 14.76%EV -13.28%E -2.21%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 66.59%EV -10.98%E -8.26%K -33.28%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.65%EV -11.58%E -2.44%K -3.09%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-20 15:05
Winamax (FR)🎯5.90I 16.95%NM 15.21%EV -14.72%E -2.50%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 66.48%EV -9.64%E -7.14%K -27.55%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.31%EV -8.79%E -1.79%K -2.25%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-20 15:05
Virgin Bet🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 15.33%EV -16.17%E -2.79%K -3.37%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 64.45%EV -7.64%E -5.53%K -20.09%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.21%EV -18.09%E -4.11%K -5.32%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-20 14:25
LiveScore Bet🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 15.33%EV -16.17%E -2.79%K -3.37%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 64.45%EV -7.64%E -5.53%K -20.09%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.21%EV -18.09%E -4.11%K -5.32%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-20 14:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 15.19%EV -16.17%E -2.79%K -3.37%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 64.78%EV -8.97%E -6.60%K -24.93%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.02%EV -18.09%E -4.11%K -5.32%G +0.000%13.5%2026-10-20 14:25
Unibet (FR)🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 14.45%EV -16.17%E -2.79%K -3.37%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 66.51%EV -15.67%E -12.43%K -60.26%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.05%EV -18.09%E -4.11%K -5.32%G +0.000%19.3%2026-10-20 15:05
PMU (FR)🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 15.32%EV -19.06%E -3.40%K -4.14%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 64.50%EV -10.98%E -8.26%K -33.28%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.18%EV -20.89%E -4.91%K -6.43%G +0.000%16.6%2026-10-20 14:25
BoyleSports🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 15.96%EV -20.50%E -3.73%K -4.56%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 64.54%EV -8.97%E -6.60%K -24.93%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.50%EV -16.23%E -3.61%K -4.64%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-20 10:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎8.40I 11.90%NM 11.88%1.44I 69.44%NM 69.29%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.83%0.2%2026-10-20 15:06
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎8.40I 11.90%NM 11.88%1.44I 69.44%NM 69.29%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.83%0.2%2026-10-20 15:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎8.40I 11.90%NM 11.88%1.44I 69.44%NM 69.29%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.83%0.2%2026-10-20 15:05
Smarkets◎8.40I 11.90%NM 11.78%1.43I 69.93%NM 69.19%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.03%1.1%2026-10-20 15:05
Kalshi◎7.69I 13.00%NM 12.76%1.41I 70.92%NM 69.59%5.56I 17.99%NM 17.65%1.9%2026-10-20 15:05