Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Taawoun v Al-Khaleej

Kickoff: 2026-08-15 16:16 UTC

Final: Al-Taawoun 0–0 Al-Khaleej

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Taawoun (Local)

Prediction 43.64%2.29fair odd
EV -1.80%
Edge -0.801%
Kelly -1.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.16%43.61%43.60%46.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.832.052.052.2554.64%48.84%48.78%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Khaleej (Visit)

Prediction 28.88%3.46fair odd
EV -1.81%
Edge -0.532%
Kelly -0.754%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.24%29.05%29.02%31.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.113.103.4035.71%32.18%32.26%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.48%3.64fair odd
EV -3.83%
Edge -1.09%
Kelly -1.53%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.29%27.34%27.38%28.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.353.403.5032.26%29.87%29.41%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Taawoun (Local): 43.64%; Al-Khaleej (Visit): 28.88%; Draw: 27.48%. For Al-Taawoun (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.29. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.25, with an expected value of -1.80%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 43.13%EV -1.80%E -0.801%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 29.06%EV -3.54%E -1.06%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.49I 28.65%NM 27.81%EV -4.11%E -1.18%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-15 16:14
Pinnacle🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.25%EV -3.98%E -1.81%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 28.92%EV -4.99%E -1.52%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.82%EV -6.03%E -1.76%K -2.49%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-15 16:10
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -6.17%E -2.87%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -7.58%E -2.37%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -3.83%E -1.09%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-15 16:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -6.17%E -2.87%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -7.58%E -2.37%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -3.83%E -1.09%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-15 16:00
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.16%EV -6.17%E -2.87%K -5.36%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.61%EV -19.14%E -6.83%K -10.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.23%EV -10.70%E -3.29%K -4.76%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-15 16:14
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.16%EV -6.17%E -2.87%K -5.36%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.61%EV -19.14%E -6.83%K -10.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.23%EV -10.70%E -3.29%K -4.76%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-15 16:14
Tipico (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -8.35%E -3.98%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -7.58%E -2.37%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -6.58%E -1.93%K -2.74%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 15:59
betfred_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -8.35%E -3.98%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -10.47%E -3.38%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -6.58%E -1.93%K -2.74%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-15 16:09
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -8.35%E -3.98%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -10.47%E -3.38%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -9.33%E -2.83%K -4.05%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-15 16:05
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.06%EV -8.35%E -3.98%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.44%EV -13.36%E -4.45%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.49%EV -14.82%E -4.78%K -7.06%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-15 16:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.06%EV -8.35%E -3.98%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.44%EV -13.36%E -4.45%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.49%EV -14.82%E -4.78%K -7.06%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-15 16:00
SportsBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.98%EV -9.22%E -4.43%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -10.47%E -3.38%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.51%EV -5.20%E -1.51%K -2.12%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-15 16:09
Betclic (FR)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.36%EV -9.22%E -4.43%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.63%EV -9.03%E -2.87%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 28.01%EV -11.52%E -3.58%K -5.19%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-15 16:14
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -10.53%E -5.14%K -10.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -13.36%E -4.45%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -6.58%E -1.93%K -2.74%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-15 16:09
Paddy Power🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -10.53%E -5.14%K -10.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -13.36%E -4.45%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -6.58%E -1.93%K -2.74%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-15 16:09
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.60%EV -10.53%E -5.14%K -10.03%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.31%EV -11.92%E -3.91%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.09%EV -9.33%E -2.83%K -4.05%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-15 16:15
Sky Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.39%EV -10.53%E -5.14%K -10.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.65%EV -13.36%E -4.45%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -9.33%E -2.83%K -4.05%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-15 16:09
Unibet (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.30%EV -12.71%E -6.36%K -12.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -1.81%E -0.532%K -0.754%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -3.83%E -1.09%K -1.53%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-15 12:49
Unibet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.18%EV -12.71%E -6.36%K -12.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.24%EV -7.58%E -2.37%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -6.58%E -1.93%K -2.74%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-15 15:59
Grosvenor🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.18%EV -12.71%E -6.36%K -12.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.24%EV -7.58%E -2.37%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -6.58%E -1.93%K -2.74%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-15 16:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.18%EV -12.71%E -6.36%K -12.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.24%EV -7.58%E -2.37%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -6.58%E -1.93%K -2.74%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-15 16:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.18%EV -12.71%E -6.36%K -12.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.24%EV -7.58%E -2.37%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -6.58%E -1.93%K -2.74%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-15 16:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.18%EV -12.71%E -6.36%K -12.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.24%EV -7.58%E -2.37%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -6.58%E -1.93%K -2.74%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-15 16:00
Unibet (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.18%EV -12.71%E -6.36%K -12.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.24%EV -7.58%E -2.37%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -6.58%E -1.93%K -2.74%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-15 16:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 43.27%EV -13.59%E -6.86%K -13.86%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.54%EV -16.25%E -5.60%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.20%EV -13.45%E -4.27%K -6.25%G +0.000%16.7%2026-08-15 16:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.23%EV -14.90%E -7.64%K -15.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.45%EV -10.47%E -3.38%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.33%EV -7.95%E -2.37%K -3.38%G +0.000%13.4%2026-08-15 16:15
LiveScore Bet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 45.30%EV -15.77%E -8.17%K -16.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.20%EV -10.47%E -3.38%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.49%EV -9.33%E -2.83%K -4.05%G +0.000%14.4%2026-08-15 16:14
Virgin Bet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 45.30%EV -15.77%E -8.17%K -16.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.20%EV -10.47%E -3.38%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.49%EV -9.33%E -2.83%K -4.05%G +0.000%14.4%2026-08-15 16:14
PMU (FR)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 45.22%EV -17.51%E -9.27%K -19.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.49%EV -13.36%E -4.45%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.30%EV -10.70%E -3.29%K -4.76%G +0.000%17.0%2026-08-15 16:15
BoyleSports🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 46.98%EV -20.13%E -11.00%K -24.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.73%EV -10.47%E -3.38%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.29%EV -6.58%E -1.93%K -2.74%G +0.000%16.3%2026-08-15 12:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.24I 44.64%NM 43.84%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.88%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.28%1.8%2026-08-15 16:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.24I 44.64%NM 43.84%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.88%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.28%1.8%2026-08-15 16:15
Smarkets2.26I 44.25%NM 43.08%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.50%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.42%2.7%2026-08-15 16:15
Kalshi2.22I 45.05%NM 43.70%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.13%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.17%3.1%2026-08-15 16:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.22I 45.05%NM 43.35%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.16%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.49%3.9%2026-08-15 16:15