The School of Odds
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Al-Shabab v Al-Taawoun

Kickoff: 2026-10-11 18:00 UTC

Final: Al-Shabab 3–0 Al-Taawoun

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Shabab (Local)

Prediction 41.98%2.38fair odd
EV -3.44%
Edge -1.50%
Kelly -2.65%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.18%42.04%42.00%43.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.162.152.3051.28%46.40%46.51%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Taawoun (Visit)

Prediction 32.29%3.10fair odd
EV -2.16%
Edge -0.712%
Kelly -1.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.03

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.23%32.26%32.36%33.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.812.803.0338.46%35.62%35.71%33.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.73%3.89fair odd
EV -4.04%
Edge -1.08%
Kelly -1.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.41%25.70%25.63%26.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.493.483.7330.77%28.64%28.78%26.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Shabab (Local): 41.98%; Al-Taawoun (Visit): 32.29%; Draw: 25.73%. For Al-Taawoun (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.10. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.03, with an expected value of -2.16%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.47%EV -3.44%E -1.50%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.58%EV -2.48%E -0.821%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.94%EV -8.93%E -2.52%K -3.51%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-11 17:40
Coral🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.27%EV -3.44%E -1.50%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 33.07%EV -7.32%E -2.55%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.65%EV -4.81%E -1.30%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-11 04:35
1xBet🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 42.52%EV -5.12%E -2.27%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.72%EV -2.16%E -0.712%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.76%EV -4.04%E -1.08%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-11 17:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.80%EV -5.54%E -2.46%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.77%EV -7.32%E -2.55%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -4.81%E -1.30%K -1.78%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-10 14:01
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.18%EV -5.54%E -2.46%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.09%EV -9.58%E -3.42%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -7.38%E -2.05%K -2.84%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-10 14:01
betfred_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.64%E -3.47%K -6.37%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.78%EV -9.58%E -3.42%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.50%EV -7.38%E -2.05%K -2.84%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-10 18:45
SportsBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.19%EV -8.48%E -3.89%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.27%EV -7.97%E -2.80%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -7.38%E -2.05%K -2.84%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-10 18:45
Unibet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.83%EV -8.90%E -4.10%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.85%EV -7.97%E -2.80%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.31%EV -11.24%E -3.26%K -4.59%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-11 17:10
Grosvenor🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.83%EV -8.90%E -4.10%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.85%EV -7.97%E -2.80%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.31%EV -11.24%E -3.26%K -4.59%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-11 17:09
Unibet (SE)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.83%EV -8.90%E -4.10%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.85%EV -7.97%E -2.80%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.31%EV -11.24%E -3.26%K -4.59%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-11 17:09
ATG (SE)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.83%EV -8.90%E -4.10%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.85%EV -7.97%E -2.80%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.31%EV -11.24%E -3.26%K -4.59%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-11 17:09
Unibet (NL)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.83%EV -8.90%E -4.10%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.85%EV -7.97%E -2.80%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.31%EV -11.24%E -3.26%K -4.59%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-11 17:10
Svenska Spel🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.83%EV -8.90%E -4.10%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.85%EV -7.97%E -2.80%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.31%EV -11.24%E -3.26%K -4.59%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-11 17:10
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -9.74%E -4.53%K -8.47%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.47%EV -9.58%E -3.42%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -7.38%E -2.05%K -2.84%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-10 18:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -9.74%E -4.53%K -8.47%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.47%EV -9.58%E -3.42%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -7.38%E -2.05%K -2.84%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-11 17:45
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.06%EV -9.74%E -4.53%K -8.47%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.49%EV -12.81%E -4.75%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.44%EV -4.81%E -1.30%K -1.78%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-11 17:25
Sky Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.73%EV -9.74%E -4.53%K -8.47%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.63%EV -11.20%E -4.07%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.64%EV -9.95%E -2.84%K -3.98%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-10 19:01
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.52%EV -9.74%E -4.53%K -8.47%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.69%EV -14.43%E -5.44%K -8.74%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.80%EV -7.38%E -2.05%K -2.84%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-11 17:24
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.33%EV -9.74%E -4.53%K -8.47%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -9.58%E -3.42%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.93%EV -15.10%E -4.58%K -6.57%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-11 17:35
William Hill🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.33%EV -9.74%E -4.53%K -8.47%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -9.58%E -3.42%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.93%EV -15.10%E -4.58%K -6.57%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-11 17:34
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.33%EV -9.74%E -4.53%K -8.47%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -9.58%E -3.42%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.93%EV -15.10%E -4.58%K -6.57%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-11 17:34
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.33%EV -9.74%E -4.53%K -8.47%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -9.58%E -3.42%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.93%EV -15.10%E -4.58%K -6.57%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-11 17:34
Virgin Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 41.61%EV -10.16%E -4.75%K -8.91%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.80%EV -9.58%E -3.42%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.58%EV -13.81%E -4.12%K -5.88%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-11 17:09
LiveScore Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 41.61%EV -10.16%E -4.75%K -8.91%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.80%EV -9.58%E -3.42%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.58%EV -13.81%E -4.12%K -5.88%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-11 17:09
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 41.84%EV -11.00%E -5.19%K -9.82%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.68%EV -9.58%E -3.42%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.48%EV -13.81%E -4.12%K -5.88%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-11 17:10
Tipico (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.87%EV -11.84%E -5.64%K -10.76%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.23%EV -4.74%E -1.61%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -4.81%E -1.30%K -1.78%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-11 17:34
Betclic (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.89%EV -13.94%E -6.80%K -13.27%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 32.21%EV -11.84%E -4.34%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 24.91%EV -9.18%E -2.60%K -3.63%G +0.000%13.7%2026-10-11 17:33
PMU (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 41.84%EV -13.94%E -6.80%K -13.27%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.77%EV -12.81%E -4.75%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.39%EV -16.39%E -5.04%K -7.28%G +0.000%16.6%2026-10-11 17:09
BoyleSports🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 42.72%EV -16.04%E -8.02%K -16.04%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 32.86%EV -16.04%E -6.17%K -10.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.41%EV -9.95%E -2.84%K -3.98%G +0.000%17.0%2026-10-11 17:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 42.88%EV -18.14%E -9.30%K -19.09%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 32.16%EV -16.04%E -6.17%K -10.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 24.96%EV -13.81%E -4.12%K -5.88%G +0.000%19.6%2026-10-11 17:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.36I 42.37%NM 41.81%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.89%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.30%1.3%2026-10-11 17:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.36I 42.37%NM 41.81%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.89%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.30%1.3%2026-10-11 17:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.36I 42.37%NM 41.81%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.89%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.30%1.3%2026-10-11 17:54
Smarkets◎2.36I 42.37%NM 41.72%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.04%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.24%1.6%2026-10-11 17:50
Kalshi◎2.33I 42.92%NM 42.12%3.03I 33.00%NM 32.39%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.49%1.9%2026-10-11 17:35