The School of Odds
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Al-Shabab v Al-Fayha

Kickoff: 2026-09-12 18:00 UTC

Final: Al-Shabab 0–0 Al-Fayha

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Shabab (Local)

Prediction 60.17%1.66fair odd
EV -3.73%
Edge -2.33%
Kelly -6.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.31%60.10%60.12%62.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.521.521.6069.44%65.82%65.79%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Fayha (Visit)

Prediction 18.39%5.44fair odd
EV +5.02%
Edge +0.879%
Kelly +1.07%
Growth +0.054%

assuming max odds 5.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.69%18.27%18.46%19.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.504.925.005.7122.22%20.32%20.00%17.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.44%4.66fair odd
EV -4.38%
Edge -0.983%
Kelly -1.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.86%21.63%21.41%23.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.104.104.4626.32%24.40%24.39%22.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Shabab (Local): 60.17%; Al-Fayha (Visit): 18.39%; Draw: 21.44%. For Al-Fayha (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.44. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.71, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.02%.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.93%EV -3.73%E -2.33%K -6.22%G +0.000%5.71I 17.51%NM 16.79%EV +5.02%E +0.879%K +1.07%G +0.054%4.12I 24.27%NM 23.27%EV -11.67%E -2.83%K -3.74%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-12 17:56
Tipico (DE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.45%EV -11.55%E -7.86%K -24.58%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.69%EV +1.16%E +0.211%K +0.258%G +0.003%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.86%EV -5.67%E -1.29%K -1.67%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-12 17:35
Pinnacle🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.20%EV -6.74%E -4.35%K -12.25%G +0.000%5.41I 18.48%NM 17.53%EV -0.496%E -0.092%K -0.113%G +0.000%4.46I 22.42%NM 21.27%EV -4.38%E -0.983%K -1.27%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-12 17:56
SportsBet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.55%EV -8.54%E -5.62%K -16.43%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.05%EV -6.20%E -1.22%K -1.51%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.40%EV -7.81%E -1.82%K -2.37%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-12 17:55
Coral🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.19%EV -3.73%E -2.33%K -6.22%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.94%EV -8.04%E -1.61%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.87%EV -7.17%E -1.66%K -2.15%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-12 14:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.79%EV -3.73%E -2.33%K -6.22%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -8.04%E -1.61%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -9.96%E -2.37%K -3.11%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-12 14:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.71%EV -6.74%E -4.35%K -12.25%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%EV -8.04%E -1.61%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.78%EV -8.88%E -2.09%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-12 17:20
betfred_uk🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.87%EV -7.94%E -5.19%K -14.99%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.32%EV -8.04%E -1.61%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.81%EV -9.96%E -2.37%K -3.11%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-12 17:56
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -9.75%E -6.50%K -19.49%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -8.04%E -1.61%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -9.96%E -2.37%K -3.11%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-12 17:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -9.75%E -6.50%K -19.49%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -8.04%E -1.61%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -9.96%E -2.37%K -3.11%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-12 17:55
Unibet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 59.38%EV -8.54%E -5.62%K -16.43%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.05%EV -8.04%E -1.61%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.57%EV -14.24%E -3.56%K -4.75%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-12 17:56
Unibet (NL)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 59.54%EV -9.15%E -6.06%K -17.93%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.98%EV -8.04%E -1.61%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.48%EV -14.24%E -3.56%K -4.75%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-12 17:56
Unibet (SE)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 59.54%EV -9.15%E -6.06%K -17.93%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.98%EV -8.04%E -1.61%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.48%EV -14.24%E -3.56%K -4.75%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-12 17:56
LiveScore Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.48%EV -9.75%E -6.50%K -19.49%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.21%EV -9.88%E -2.02%K -2.53%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.31%EV -14.24%E -3.56%K -4.75%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-12 17:56
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 59.48%EV -10.35%E -6.95%K -21.12%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.09%EV -9.88%E -2.02%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.44%EV -15.32%E -3.88%K -5.19%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-12 17:56
Betclic (FR)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 60.23%EV -12.15%E -8.32%K -26.42%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.32%EV -11.72%E -2.44%K -3.08%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.45%EV -12.10%E -2.95%K -3.90%G +0.000%13.7%2026-09-12 17:33
Sky Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.14%EV -9.75%E -6.50%K -19.49%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.68%EV -12.64%E -2.66%K -3.37%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.18%EV -14.24%E -3.56%K -4.75%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-12 17:56
Unibet (FR)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 59.79%EV -11.55%E -7.86%K -24.58%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.50%EV -12.64%E -2.66%K -3.37%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 21.70%EV -13.17%E -3.25%K -4.32%G +0.000%13.8%2026-09-12 17:36
Winamax (DE)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 59.63%EV -8.54%E -5.62%K -16.43%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.29%EV -13.55%E -2.88%K -3.66%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.08%EV -7.81%E -1.82%K -2.37%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-12 17:20
Winamax (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.41%EV -9.75%E -6.50%K -19.49%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.37%EV -15.39%E -3.35%K -4.28%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.22%EV -9.96%E -2.37%K -3.11%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-12 17:25
William Hill🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 57.31%EV -6.74%E -4.35%K -12.25%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.31%EV -15.39%E -3.35%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.38%EV -18.53%E -4.88%K -6.62%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-12 17:36
888sport🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 57.63%EV -7.94%E -5.19%K -14.99%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.17%EV -15.39%E -3.35%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.20%EV -18.53%E -4.88%K -6.62%G +0.000%13.4%2026-09-12 17:31
888sport (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 57.63%EV -7.94%E -5.19%K -14.99%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.17%EV -15.39%E -3.35%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.20%EV -18.53%E -4.88%K -6.62%G +0.000%13.4%2026-09-12 17:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 57.63%EV -7.94%E -5.19%K -14.99%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.17%EV -15.39%E -3.35%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.20%EV -18.53%E -4.88%K -6.62%G +0.000%13.4%2026-09-12 17:31
BoyleSports🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 59.52%EV -13.36%E -9.28%K -30.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.05%EV -17.23%E -3.83%K -4.92%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.43%EV -14.24%E -3.56%K -4.75%G +0.000%16.7%2026-09-12 17:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.60I 62.50%NM 61.87%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.07%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.06%1.0%2026-09-12 17:36
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.60I 62.50%NM 61.87%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.07%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.06%1.0%2026-09-12 17:36
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.60I 62.50%NM 61.87%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.07%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.06%1.0%2026-09-12 17:36
Smarkets◎1.60I 62.50%NM 61.69%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.32%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.00%1.3%2026-09-12 17:56
Kalshi◎1.59I 62.89%NM 61.73%5.56I 17.99%NM 17.65%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.62%1.9%2026-09-12 17:56