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Al-Shabab v Al-Faisaly KSA FC
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Al-Shabab (Local)
Prediction 56.20%1.78fair odd
EV -2.22%
Edge -1.28%
Kelly -3.00%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.74
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.47%56.29%56.35%60.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.491.581.571.7467.11%63.24%63.69%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Al-Faisaly KSA FC (Visit)
Prediction 20.42%4.90fair odd
EV +14.37%
Edge +2.57%
Kelly +3.12%
Growth +0.449%
assuming max odds 5.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.37%20.29%20.46%21.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.104.654.605.6024.39%21.52%21.74%17.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 23.38%4.28fair odd
EV -1.80%
Edge -0.428%
Kelly -0.562%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.43%23.42%23.20%24.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.883.954.2027.78%25.76%25.35%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Shabab (Local): 56.20%; Al-Faisaly KSA FC (Visit): 20.42%; Draw: 23.38%. For Al-Faisaly KSA FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.90. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +14.37%.
Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 60.71%EV -15.14%E -10.03%K -29.69%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.37%EV +14.37%E +2.57%K +3.12%G +0.449% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -6.48%E -1.62%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-10-19 17:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -15.71%E -10.47%K -31.41%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV +12.33%E +2.24%K +2.74%G +0.338% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -6.48%E -1.62%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-10-19 17:15 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -15.71%E -10.47%K -31.41%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV +12.33%E +2.24%K +2.74%G +0.338% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -6.48%E -1.62%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-10-19 17:45 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.51%EV -15.71%E -10.47%K -31.41%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.00%EV +7.22%E +1.38%K +1.70%G +0.123% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.49%EV -11.15%E -2.93%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-10-19 17:35 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 58.69%EV -12.90%E -8.32%K -23.45%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.57%EV +0.073%E +0.015%K +0.019%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -6.48%E -1.62%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-10-19 17:55 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.29%EV -2.22%E -1.28%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 4.88I 20.49%NM 19.72%EV -0.336%E -0.069%K -0.087%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.99%EV -9.98%E -2.59%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-10-19 17:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.39%EV -5.59%E -3.33%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 4.84I 20.66%NM 19.57%EV -1.15%E -0.238%K -0.300%G +0.000% | 3.94I 25.38%NM 24.04%EV -7.88%E -2.00%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-19 17:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.58%EV -7.28%E -4.41%K -11.19%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.79%EV -1.97%E -0.410%K -0.518%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.62%EV -1.80%E -0.428%K -0.562%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-19 14:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 57.60%EV -11.21%E -7.10%K -19.33%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.36%EV -4.01%E -0.854%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.04%EV -7.64%E -1.94%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-10-19 17:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 57.75%EV -11.77%E -7.50%K -20.65%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.29%EV -4.01%E -0.854%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.96%EV -7.64%E -1.94%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-10-19 17:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 57.75%EV -11.77%E -7.50%K -20.65%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.29%EV -4.01%E -0.854%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.96%EV -7.64%E -1.94%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-10-19 17:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 57.75%EV -11.77%E -7.50%K -20.65%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.29%EV -4.01%E -0.854%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.96%EV -7.64%E -1.94%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-10-19 17:05 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 57.75%EV -11.77%E -7.50%K -20.65%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.29%EV -4.01%E -0.854%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.96%EV -7.64%E -1.94%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-10-19 17:05 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 57.75%EV -11.77%E -7.50%K -20.65%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.29%EV -4.01%E -0.854%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.96%EV -7.64%E -1.94%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-10-19 17:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.09%EV -7.28%E -4.41%K -11.19%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.48%EV -6.05%E -1.32%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.43%EV -1.80%E -0.428%K -0.562%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-19 14:25 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.16%EV -6.15%E -3.68%K -9.18%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.39%EV -6.05%E -1.32%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -6.48%E -1.62%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-19 17:34 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.21%EV -10.09%E -6.30%K -16.81%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.90%EV -6.05%E -1.32%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.89%EV -6.48%E -1.62%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-10-19 17:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.49%EV -12.90%E -8.32%K -23.45%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.37%EV -6.05%E -1.32%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.14%EV -9.98%E -2.59%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-10-19 17:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.49%EV -12.90%E -8.32%K -23.45%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.37%EV -6.05%E -1.32%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.14%EV -9.98%E -2.59%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-10-19 17:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 57.64%EV -13.46%E -8.74%K -24.92%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.30%EV -6.05%E -1.32%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.06%EV -9.98%E -2.59%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-10-19 17:25 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 57.43%EV -16.27%E -10.92%K -33.20%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 19.45%EV -10.14%E -2.30%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.13%EV -13.49%E -3.65%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 16.9% | 2026-10-19 17:05 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 56.68%EV -12.90%E -8.32%K -23.45%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.20%EV -11.16%E -2.57%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.12%EV -11.15%E -2.93%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-10-19 17:33 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 55.82%EV -7.84%E -4.78%K -12.25%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.29%EV -12.18%E -2.83%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.89%EV -6.48%E -1.62%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-10-19 17:35 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.52%EV -8.96%E -5.53%K -14.46%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.42%EV -14.22%E -3.39%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.06%EV -8.81%E -2.26%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-10-19 17:35 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 54.47%EV -8.96%E -5.53%K -14.46%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.01%EV -14.22%E -3.39%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.51%EV -15.83%E -4.40%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-10-19 17:35 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 54.63%EV -9.52%E -5.92%K -15.61%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.94%EV -14.22%E -3.39%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.43%EV -15.83%E -4.40%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-10-19 17:35 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 54.63%EV -9.52%E -5.92%K -15.61%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.94%EV -14.22%E -3.39%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.43%EV -15.83%E -4.40%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-10-19 17:35 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 54.63%EV -9.52%E -5.92%K -15.61%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.94%EV -14.22%E -3.39%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.43%EV -15.83%E -4.40%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-10-19 17:35 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 55.96%EV -11.77%E -7.50%K -20.65%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.92%EV -14.22%E -3.39%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.12%EV -11.15%E -2.93%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-10-19 17:54 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 56.10%EV -15.71%E -10.47%K -31.41%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 20.52%EV -16.27%E -3.97%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 23.38%EV -15.83%E -4.40%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 18.8% | 2026-10-19 17:35 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.71I 58.48%NM 57.48% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.66% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.86% | 1.7% | 2026-10-19 17:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.71I 58.48%NM 57.48% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.66% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.86% | 1.7% | 2026-10-19 17:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.71I 58.48%NM 57.48% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.66% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.86% | 1.7% | 2026-10-19 17:55 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.92% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.58% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.50% | 2.2% | 2026-10-19 17:30 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.70I 58.82%NM 57.09% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.81% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.11% | 3.0% | 2026-10-19 17:35 |