The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Al-Shabab v Al-Ahli

Kickoff: 2026-10-30 18:00 UTC

Final: Al-Shabab 6–1 Al-Ahli

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Shabab (Local)

Prediction 31.80%3.14fair odd
EV +2.07%
Edge +0.646%
Kelly +0.938%
Growth +0.019%

assuming max odds 3.21

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.88%31.53%31.60%32.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.952.953.2137.74%33.85%33.90%31.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Ahli (Visit)

Prediction 43.15%2.32fair odd
EV -2.92%
Edge -1.30%
Kelly -2.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.11%43.44%43.34%46.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.852.052.042.2554.05%48.86%49.14%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.05%3.99fair odd
EV -3.55%
Edge -0.921%
Kelly -1.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.07%25.03%25.06%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.573.603.8530.77%27.98%27.78%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Shabab (Local): 31.80%; Al-Ahli (Visit): 43.15%; Draw: 25.05%. For Al-Shabab (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.14. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.21, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.07%.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯3.21I 31.15%NM 29.90%EV +2.07%E +0.646%K +0.938%G +0.019%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.02%EV -5.94%E -2.72%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 26.08%EV -7.80%E -2.12%K -2.91%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-30 17:50
Unibet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.95%EV +0.165%E +0.052%K +0.077%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.06%EV -14.57%E -7.36%K -14.86%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.99%EV -8.56%E -2.34%K -3.23%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-30 17:35
Grosvenor🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.89%EV +0.165%E +0.052%K +0.077%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 46.19%EV -15.00%E -7.61%K -15.46%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.93%EV -8.56%E -2.34%K -3.23%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-30 17:35
Unibet (SE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.89%EV +0.165%E +0.052%K +0.077%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 46.19%EV -15.00%E -7.61%K -15.46%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.93%EV -8.56%E -2.34%K -3.23%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-30 17:35
Unibet (NL)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.89%EV +0.165%E +0.052%K +0.077%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 46.19%EV -15.00%E -7.61%K -15.46%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.93%EV -8.56%E -2.34%K -3.23%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-30 17:35
ATG (SE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.89%EV +0.165%E +0.052%K +0.077%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 46.19%EV -15.00%E -7.61%K -15.46%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.93%EV -8.56%E -2.34%K -3.23%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-30 17:35
Svenska Spel🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.89%EV +0.165%E +0.052%K +0.077%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 46.19%EV -15.00%E -7.61%K -15.46%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.93%EV -8.56%E -2.34%K -3.23%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-30 17:35
Tipico (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.50%EV -1.43%E -0.460%K -0.679%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 46.43%EV -15.00%E -7.61%K -15.46%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.07%EV -4.80%E -1.26%K -1.71%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-30 17:35
Virgin Bet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.14%EV -3.02%E -0.989%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 45.82%EV -16.29%E -8.40%K -17.33%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.04%EV -11.06%E -3.12%K -4.34%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-30 17:35
LiveScore Bet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.14%EV -3.02%E -0.989%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 45.82%EV -16.29%E -8.40%K -17.33%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.04%EV -11.06%E -3.12%K -4.34%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-30 17:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.07%EV -3.02%E -0.989%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 45.95%EV -16.72%E -8.66%K -17.98%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.98%EV -11.06%E -3.12%K -4.34%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-30 17:35
Pinnacle🎯3.03I 33.00%NM 31.48%EV -3.65%E -1.21%K -1.80%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.75%EV -5.94%E -2.72%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.77%EV -3.55%E -0.921%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-30 17:50
Coral🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -4.61%E -1.54%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.11%EV -2.92%E -1.30%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -9.81%E -2.72%K -3.77%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-30 17:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -4.61%E -1.54%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -5.07%E -2.31%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -9.81%E -2.72%K -3.77%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-30 17:50
SportsBet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.10%EV -6.20%E -2.10%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.11%EV -10.25%E -4.93%K -9.49%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.79%EV -7.30%E -1.97%K -2.70%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-30 17:50
PMU (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 28.88%EV -6.20%E -2.10%K -3.18%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 46.06%EV -20.18%E -10.91%K -23.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.06%EV -14.82%E -4.36%K -6.17%G +0.000%17.4%2026-10-30 17:35
Unibet (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.01%EV -7.79%E -2.68%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.20%EV -5.07%E -2.31%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -9.81%E -2.72%K -3.77%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-30 17:50
Sky Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.50%EV -7.79%E -2.68%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.23%EV -13.70%E -6.85%K -13.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.27%EV -12.31%E -3.52%K -4.93%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-30 17:30
betfred_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.53%EV -8.42%E -2.92%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -9.39%E -4.47%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.23%EV -9.81%E -2.72%K -3.77%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-30 17:50
Paddy Power🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.20%EV -8.42%E -2.92%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.84%EV -11.55%E -5.63%K -11.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.96%EV -9.81%E -2.72%K -3.77%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-30 17:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.20%EV -8.42%E -2.92%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.84%EV -11.55%E -5.63%K -11.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.96%EV -9.81%E -2.72%K -3.77%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-30 17:50
Winamax (DE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.58%EV -10.96%E -3.92%K -6.09%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.43%EV -7.23%E -3.36%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.99%EV -8.56%E -2.34%K -3.23%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-30 17:50
888sport🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.68%EV -10.96%E -3.92%K -6.09%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.24%EV -9.39%E -4.47%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -14.82%E -4.36%K -6.17%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-30 17:50
William Hill🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.68%EV -10.96%E -3.92%K -6.09%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.24%EV -9.39%E -4.47%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -14.82%E -4.36%K -6.17%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-30 17:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.68%EV -10.96%E -3.92%K -6.09%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.24%EV -9.39%E -4.47%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -14.82%E -4.36%K -6.17%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-30 17:50
888sport (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.68%EV -10.96%E -3.92%K -6.09%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.24%EV -9.39%E -4.47%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -14.82%E -4.36%K -6.17%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-30 17:50
Betclic (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.34%EV -10.96%E -3.92%K -6.09%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 43.44%EV -12.84%E -6.36%K -12.59%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 25.22%EV -12.81%E -3.68%K -5.17%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-30 17:48
Winamax (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.42%EV -12.55%E -4.57%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.46%EV -9.39%E -4.47%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.12%EV -11.06%E -3.12%K -4.34%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-30 17:50
BoyleSports🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.26%EV -14.14%E -5.24%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.55%EV -13.70%E -6.85%K -13.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.19%EV -9.81%E -2.72%K -3.77%G +0.000%14.8%2026-10-30 17:50
Unibet (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 31.71%EV -15.73%E -5.94%K -9.54%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 42.44%EV -14.57%E -7.36%K -14.86%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 25.85%EV -18.58%E -5.72%K -8.26%G +0.000%19.0%2026-10-30 17:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.15I 31.75%NM 31.31%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.03%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.66%1.4%2026-10-30 17:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.15I 31.75%NM 31.19%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.25%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.56%1.8%2026-10-30 17:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.15I 31.75%NM 31.19%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.25%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.56%1.8%2026-10-30 17:50
Smarkets◎3.15I 31.75%NM 31.09%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.12%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.79%2.1%2026-10-30 17:50
Kalshi◎3.23I 30.96%NM 30.08%2.13I 46.95%NM 45.62%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.29%2.9%2026-10-30 17:35

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