The School of Odds
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Al-Riyadh v Al-Taawoun

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 18:00 UTC

Final: Al-Riyadh 2–1 Al-Taawoun

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Riyadh (Local)

Prediction 34.03%2.94fair odd
EV +0.403%
Edge +0.137%
Kelly +0.207%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.88%34.12%34.09%35.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.752.752.9539.22%36.30%36.36%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Taawoun (Visit)

Prediction 37.64%2.66fair odd
EV -1.39%
Edge -0.531%
Kelly -0.859%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.52%37.55%37.57%40.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.122.342.382.6247.17%42.76%42.02%38.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.33%3.53fair odd
EV -3.68%
Edge -1.08%
Kelly -1.53%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.51%28.33%28.34%30.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.173.203.4033.33%31.56%31.25%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Riyadh (Local): 34.03%; Al-Taawoun (Visit): 37.64%; Draw: 28.33%. For Al-Riyadh (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.94. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.95, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.403%.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.93%EV +0.403%E +0.137%K +0.207%G +0.001%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.55%EV -15.32%E -6.81%K -12.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.51%EV -9.35%E -2.92%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-24 17:55
Unibet (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.93%EV +0.403%E +0.137%K +0.207%G +0.001%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.55%EV -15.32%E -6.81%K -12.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.51%EV -9.35%E -2.92%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-24 17:55
Unibet (NL)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.93%EV +0.403%E +0.137%K +0.207%G +0.001%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.55%EV -15.32%E -6.81%K -12.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.51%EV -9.35%E -2.92%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-24 17:55
Grosvenor🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.93%EV +0.403%E +0.137%K +0.207%G +0.001%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.55%EV -15.32%E -6.81%K -12.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.51%EV -9.35%E -2.92%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-24 17:55
Svenska Spel🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.93%EV +0.403%E +0.137%K +0.207%G +0.001%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.55%EV -15.32%E -6.81%K -12.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.51%EV -9.35%E -2.92%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-24 17:55
ATG (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.93%EV +0.403%E +0.137%K +0.207%G +0.001%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.55%EV -15.32%E -6.81%K -12.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.51%EV -9.35%E -2.92%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-24 17:55
1xBet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 33.34%EV -1.98%E -0.687%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.65%EV -1.39%E -0.531%K -0.859%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.01%EV -9.35%E -2.92%K -4.25%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-24 17:55
Virgin Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.88%EV -1.98%E -0.687%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.43%EV -17.20%E -7.82%K -14.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.69%EV -12.18%E -3.93%K -5.80%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-24 17:55
LiveScore Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.88%EV -1.98%E -0.687%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.43%EV -17.20%E -7.82%K -14.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.69%EV -12.18%E -3.93%K -5.80%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-24 17:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 30.99%EV -3.00%E -1.05%K -1.62%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 40.52%EV -17.95%E -8.23%K -15.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.49%EV -12.18%E -3.93%K -5.80%G +0.000%13.2%2026-10-24 17:55
Pinnacle🎯2.81I 35.59%NM 33.94%EV -4.36%E -1.55%K -2.41%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.84%EV -5.16%E -2.05%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.22%EV -4.25%E -1.26%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-24 17:45
Coral🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -4.70%E -1.68%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.53%EV -7.79%E -3.18%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.76%EV -3.68%E -1.08%K -1.53%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-24 17:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.43%EV -4.70%E -1.68%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.21%EV -7.79%E -3.18%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -6.52%E -1.97%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-24 17:35
Unibet (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.94%EV -6.40%E -2.33%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV -5.91%E -2.36%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -7.93%E -2.44%K -3.53%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-24 17:35
SportsBet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.42%EV -6.40%E -2.33%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.30%EV -9.67%E -4.03%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.28%EV -7.93%E -2.44%K -3.53%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-24 17:31
betfred_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -6.40%E -2.33%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -13.44%E -5.84%K -10.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -6.52%E -1.97%K -2.83%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-24 17:35
PMU (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 31.12%EV -6.40%E -2.33%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 40.36%EV -20.21%E -9.53%K -18.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.52%EV -15.01%E -5.00%K -7.51%G +0.000%16.9%2026-10-24 17:55
Paddy Power🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.68%EV -8.11%E -3.00%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.89%EV -9.67%E -4.03%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.42%EV -9.35%E -2.92%K -4.25%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-24 17:31
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.68%EV -8.11%E -3.00%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.89%EV -9.67%E -4.03%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.42%EV -9.35%E -2.92%K -4.25%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-24 17:50
Sky Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.86%EV -10.49%E -3.99%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.42%EV -10.42%E -4.38%K -7.55%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.73%EV -12.18%E -3.93%K -5.80%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-24 17:44
Betclic (FR)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.35%EV -10.49%E -3.99%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 38.63%EV -14.56%E -6.42%K -11.47%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 28.02%EV -11.33%E -3.62%K -5.32%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-24 17:35
888sport🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 33.62%EV -10.83%E -4.13%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.01%EV -10.42%E -4.38%K -7.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.36%EV -15.01%E -5.00%K -7.51%G +0.000%13.5%2026-10-24 17:35
William Hill🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 33.62%EV -10.83%E -4.13%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.01%EV -10.42%E -4.38%K -7.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.36%EV -15.01%E -5.00%K -7.51%G +0.000%13.5%2026-10-24 17:40
888sport (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 33.62%EV -10.83%E -4.13%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.01%EV -10.42%E -4.38%K -7.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.36%EV -15.01%E -5.00%K -7.51%G +0.000%13.5%2026-10-24 17:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 33.62%EV -10.83%E -4.13%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.01%EV -10.42%E -4.38%K -7.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.36%EV -15.01%E -5.00%K -7.51%G +0.000%13.5%2026-10-24 17:35
Winamax (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.68%EV -11.51%E -4.43%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.57%EV -9.67%E -4.03%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.75%EV -7.93%E -2.44%K -3.53%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-24 17:35
Winamax (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.53%EV -11.51%E -4.43%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.41%EV -9.67%E -4.03%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.06%EV -9.35%E -2.92%K -4.25%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-24 17:35
BoyleSports🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 33.68%EV -11.51%E -4.43%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.07%EV -13.44%E -5.84%K -10.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.25%EV -12.18%E -3.93%K -5.80%G +0.000%14.2%2026-10-24 17:45
Tipico (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.81%EV -13.21%E -5.18%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.52%EV -5.91%E -2.36%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.67%EV -6.52%E -1.97%K -2.83%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-24 17:35
Unibet (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 32.94%EV -13.21%E -5.18%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 39.07%EV -19.08%E -8.87%K -16.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.00%EV -15.01%E -5.00%K -7.51%G +0.000%19.1%2026-10-24 17:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.00I 33.33%NM 33.08%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.16%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.76%0.8%2026-10-24 17:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.00I 33.33%NM 33.08%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.16%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.76%0.8%2026-10-24 17:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.00I 33.33%NM 33.08%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.16%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.76%0.8%2026-10-24 17:55
Kalshi◎2.94I 34.01%NM 33.33%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.27%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.40%2.1%2026-10-24 17:31
Smarkets◎2.98I 33.56%NM 32.65%2.54I 39.37%NM 38.31%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.04%2.8%2026-10-24 17:55

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