The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Al-Riyadh v Al-Qadsiah

Kickoff: 2026-10-29 18:00 UTC

Final: Al-Riyadh 0–6 Al-Qadsiah

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Riyadh (Local)

Prediction 12.52%7.99fair odd
EV +1.02%
Edge +0.126%
Kelly +0.144%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 8.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.68%12.55%12.66%13.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.107.257.508.0716.39%13.79%13.33%12.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Qadsiah (Visit)

Prediction 70.43%1.42fair odd
EV -2.80%
Edge -2.03%
Kelly -7.38%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.34%70.26%70.40%71.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.291.291.3881.97%77.38%77.52%72.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 17.05%5.86fair odd
EV -4.52%
Edge -0.807%
Kelly -0.982%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.24%17.18%16.94%18.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.705.175.205.6021.28%19.35%19.23%17.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Riyadh (Local): 12.52%; Al-Qadsiah (Visit): 70.43%; Draw: 17.05%. For Al-Riyadh (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.99. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.07, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.02%.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯8.07I 12.39%NM 11.75%EV +1.02%E +0.126%K +0.144%G +0.001%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -6.33%E -4.76%K -19.17%G +0.000%5.58I 17.92%NM 16.99%EV -4.86%E -0.871%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-29 17:55
Tipico (DE)🎯7.80I 12.82%NM 11.68%EV -2.36%E -0.303%K -0.347%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 71.75%EV -10.55%E -8.31%K -39.08%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.57%EV -6.22%E -1.13%K -1.38%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-29 17:30
Coral🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -6.12%E -0.815%K -0.941%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 70.00%EV -4.21%E -3.10%K -11.70%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.31%EV -6.22%E -1.13%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-29 17:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.63%EV -6.12%E -0.815%K -0.941%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.15%EV -4.92%E -3.64%K -14.05%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.22%EV -6.22%E -1.13%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-29 17:55
Unibet (UK)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.50%EV -6.12%E -0.815%K -0.941%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.46%EV -6.33%E -4.76%K -19.17%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -6.22%E -1.13%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-29 17:40
Winamax (DE)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.13%EV -6.12%E -0.815%K -0.941%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 71.63%EV -10.55%E -8.31%K -39.08%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.24%EV -4.52%E -0.807%K -0.982%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-29 17:59
Unibet🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.11%EV -6.12%E -0.815%K -0.941%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 70.42%EV -9.14%E -7.09%K -31.53%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.47%EV -11.34%E -2.18%K -2.70%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-29 17:20
Grosvenor🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.11%EV -6.12%E -0.815%K -0.941%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 70.42%EV -9.14%E -7.09%K -31.53%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.47%EV -11.34%E -2.18%K -2.70%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-29 17:15
Unibet (NL)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.11%EV -6.12%E -0.815%K -0.941%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 70.42%EV -9.14%E -7.09%K -31.53%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.47%EV -11.34%E -2.18%K -2.70%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-29 17:20
Unibet (SE)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.11%EV -6.12%E -0.815%K -0.941%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 70.42%EV -9.14%E -7.09%K -31.53%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.47%EV -11.34%E -2.18%K -2.70%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-29 17:15
ATG (SE)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.11%EV -6.12%E -0.815%K -0.941%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 70.42%EV -9.14%E -7.09%K -31.53%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.47%EV -11.34%E -2.18%K -2.70%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-29 17:20
Svenska Spel🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.11%EV -6.12%E -0.815%K -0.941%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 70.42%EV -9.14%E -7.09%K -31.53%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.47%EV -11.34%E -2.18%K -2.70%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-29 17:15
betfred_uk🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -6.12%E -0.815%K -0.941%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -8.44%E -6.49%K -28.13%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -14.75%E -2.95%K -3.69%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-29 17:30
LiveScore Bet🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 11.94%EV -6.12%E -0.815%K -0.941%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 70.50%EV -10.55%E -8.31%K -39.08%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.56%EV -13.04%E -2.56%K -3.18%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-29 17:20
Virgin Bet🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 11.94%EV -6.12%E -0.815%K -0.941%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 70.50%EV -10.55%E -8.31%K -39.08%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.56%EV -13.04%E -2.56%K -3.18%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-29 17:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 11.87%EV -6.12%E -0.815%K -0.941%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 70.67%EV -11.26%E -8.93%K -43.29%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.46%EV -13.04%E -2.56%K -3.18%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-29 17:20
1xBet🎯7.38I 13.55%NM 13.02%EV -7.62%E -1.03%K -1.19%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 69.61%EV -2.80%E -2.03%K -7.38%G +0.000%5.53I 18.08%NM 17.37%EV -5.71%E -1.03%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-29 17:55
SportsBet🎯7.25I 13.79%NM 12.63%EV -9.25%E -1.28%K -1.48%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 70.42%EV -8.44%E -6.49%K -28.13%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.95%EV -7.93%E -1.47%K -1.80%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-29 17:20
Winamax (FR)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.81%EV -12.37%E -1.77%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 70.59%EV -10.55%E -8.31%K -39.08%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.60%EV -7.93%E -1.47%K -1.80%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-29 17:40
Paddy Power🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.78%EV -12.37%E -1.77%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 69.33%EV -9.14%E -7.09%K -31.53%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.89%EV -14.75%E -2.95%K -3.69%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-29 17:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.78%EV -12.37%E -1.77%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 69.33%EV -9.14%E -7.09%K -31.53%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.89%EV -14.75%E -2.95%K -3.69%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-29 17:45
888sport🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.75%EV -12.37%E -1.77%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 68.66%EV -8.44%E -6.49%K -28.13%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.59%EV -18.16%E -3.78%K -4.78%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-29 17:30
William Hill🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.75%EV -12.37%E -1.77%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 68.66%EV -8.44%E -6.49%K -28.13%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.59%EV -18.16%E -3.78%K -4.78%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-29 17:29
Mr Green (SE)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.75%EV -12.37%E -1.77%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 68.66%EV -8.44%E -6.49%K -28.13%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.59%EV -18.16%E -3.78%K -4.78%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-29 17:30
888sport (SE)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.75%EV -12.37%E -1.77%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 68.66%EV -8.44%E -6.49%K -28.13%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.59%EV -18.16%E -3.78%K -4.78%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-29 17:30
PMU (FR)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.25%EV -12.37%E -1.77%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 70.26%EV -14.07%E -11.54%K -63.97%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.49%EV -16.45%E -3.36%K -4.22%G +0.000%16.7%2026-10-29 17:15
Betclic (FR)🎯6.90I 14.49%NM 12.69%EV -13.63%E -1.97%K -2.31%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 70.63%EV -12.66%E -10.21%K -52.77%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.68%EV -10.49%E -2.00%K -2.47%G +0.000%14.2%2026-10-29 17:58
Sky Bet🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.70%EV -18.63%E -2.87%K -3.39%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 68.49%EV -8.44%E -6.49%K -28.13%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.81%EV -14.75%E -2.95%K -3.69%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-29 17:28
BoyleSports🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.70%EV -18.63%E -2.87%K -3.39%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 68.49%EV -8.44%E -6.49%K -28.13%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.81%EV -14.75%E -2.95%K -3.69%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-29 17:30
Unibet (FR)🎯6.10I 16.39%NM 13.78%EV -23.64%E -3.88%K -4.64%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 68.34%EV -13.37%E -10.87%K -58.13%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 17.88%EV -19.86%E -4.23%K -5.37%G +0.000%19.0%2026-10-29 17:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎9.00I 11.11%NM 11.00%1.37I 72.99%NM 72.23%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.77%1.1%2026-10-29 17:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎9.00I 11.11%NM 10.94%1.36I 73.53%NM 72.38%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.68%1.6%2026-10-29 17:55
Kalshi◎8.33I 12.00%NM 11.76%1.35I 74.07%NM 72.57%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.67%2.1%2026-10-29 17:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎9.00I 11.11%NM 10.88%1.35I 74.07%NM 72.53%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.59%2.1%2026-10-29 17:55
Smarkets◎9.20I 10.87%NM 10.58%1.34I 74.63%NM 72.64%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.78%2.7%2026-10-29 17:55

Discuss this game on odds.forum

No published comments yet.