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Al-Riyadh v Al-Hilal

Kickoff: 2026-10-16 15:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Riyadh (Local)

Prediction 6.39%15.65fair odd
EV +14.99%
Edge +0.833%
Kelly +0.882%
Growth +0.132%

assuming max odds 18.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.20%6.56%6.27%8.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
10.0013.8513.0018.0010.00%7.22%7.69%5.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Hilal (Visit)

Prediction 81.79%1.22fair odd
EV -6.76%
Edge -5.93%
Kelly -48.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.14

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
78.33%81.84%81.83%85.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.071.111.111.1493.46%90.00%90.09%87.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 11.82%8.46fair odd
EV +21.20%
Edge +2.07%
Kelly +2.29%
Growth +0.486%

assuming max odds 10.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.21%11.59%11.89%13.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.107.527.0010.2516.39%13.29%14.29%9.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Riyadh (Local): 6.39%; Al-Hilal (Visit): 81.79%; Draw: 11.82%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.46. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 10.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +21.20%.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯14.56I 6.87%NM 6.48%EV -6.99%E -0.480%K -0.515%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 84.30%EV -8.40%E -7.50%K -69.99%G +0.000%10.25I 9.76%NM 9.21%EV +21.20%E +2.07%K +2.29%G +0.486%5.9%2026-10-15 05:15
1xBet🎯18.00I 5.56%NM 5.20%EV +14.99%E +0.833%K +0.882%G +0.132%1.10I 90.91%NM 85.01%EV -10.03%E -9.12%K -100.34%G +0.000%9.55I 10.47%NM 9.79%EV +12.92%E +1.35%K +1.51%G +0.195%6.9%2026-10-12 11:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯18.00I 5.56%NM 5.21%EV +14.99%E +0.833%K +0.882%G +0.132%1.12I 89.29%NM 83.75%EV -8.40%E -7.50%K -69.99%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.04%EV +0.509%E +0.060%K +0.068%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-13 15:04
Tipico (DE)🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 5.74%EV +2.21%E +0.138%K +0.147%G +0.003%1.10I 90.91%NM 83.46%EV -10.03%E -9.12%K -100.34%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.80%EV +0.509%E +0.060%K +0.068%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-13 13:19
888sport🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -4.18%E -0.279%K -0.298%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 82.46%EV -9.22%E -8.30%K -83.78%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.44%EV -5.40%E -0.675%K -0.772%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-12 13:39
William Hill🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -4.18%E -0.279%K -0.298%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 82.46%EV -9.22%E -8.30%K -83.78%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.44%EV -5.40%E -0.675%K -0.772%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-12 13:39
888sport (SE)🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -4.18%E -0.279%K -0.298%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 82.46%EV -9.22%E -8.30%K -83.78%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.44%EV -5.40%E -0.675%K -0.772%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-12 13:39
Mr Green (SE)🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -4.18%E -0.279%K -0.298%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 82.46%EV -9.22%E -8.30%K -83.78%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.44%EV -5.40%E -0.675%K -0.772%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-12 13:40
SportsBet🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 5.70%EV +2.21%E +0.138%K +0.147%G +0.003%1.10I 90.91%NM 82.90%EV -10.03%E -9.12%K -100.34%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.40%EV -5.40%E -0.675%K -0.772%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-13 10:50
Paddy Power🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 5.70%EV +2.21%E +0.138%K +0.147%G +0.003%1.10I 90.91%NM 82.90%EV -10.03%E -9.12%K -100.34%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.40%EV -5.40%E -0.675%K -0.772%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-13 10:50
Winamax (DE)🎯11.50I 8.70%NM 7.79%EV -26.54%E -2.31%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 80.66%EV -9.22%E -8.30%K -83.78%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.55%EV -8.36%E -1.08%K -1.24%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-13 08:29
Unibet (UK)🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 5.82%EV +2.21%E +0.138%K +0.147%G +0.003%1.14I 87.72%NM 81.75%EV -6.76%E -5.93%K -48.30%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -11.32%E -1.51%K -1.74%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-13 15:04
betfred_uk🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -4.18%E -0.279%K -0.298%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 81.70%EV -8.40%E -7.50%K -69.99%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.20%EV -11.32%E -1.51%K -1.74%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-14 02:19
Unibet🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 6.96%EV -16.95%E -1.30%K -1.41%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 80.11%EV -7.58%E -6.71%K -58.31%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.93%EV -17.23%E -2.46%K -2.87%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-13 02:59
Unibet (NL)🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 6.96%EV -16.95%E -1.30%K -1.41%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 80.11%EV -7.58%E -6.71%K -58.31%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.93%EV -17.23%E -2.46%K -2.87%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-13 02:59
Grosvenor🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 6.96%EV -16.95%E -1.30%K -1.41%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 80.11%EV -7.58%E -6.71%K -58.31%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.93%EV -17.23%E -2.46%K -2.87%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-13 03:00
Unibet (SE)🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 6.96%EV -16.95%E -1.30%K -1.41%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 80.11%EV -7.58%E -6.71%K -58.31%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.93%EV -17.23%E -2.46%K -2.87%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-13 03:00
Svenska Spel🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 6.96%EV -16.95%E -1.30%K -1.41%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 80.11%EV -7.58%E -6.71%K -58.31%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.93%EV -17.23%E -2.46%K -2.87%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-13 03:00
ATG (SE)🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 6.96%EV -16.95%E -1.30%K -1.41%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 80.11%EV -7.58%E -6.71%K -58.31%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.93%EV -17.23%E -2.46%K -2.87%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-13 02:59
LeoVegas (SE)🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 6.86%EV -16.95%E -1.30%K -1.41%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 80.39%EV -9.22%E -8.30%K -83.78%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.75%EV -17.23%E -2.46%K -2.87%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-10 14:01
Virgin Bet🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 6.86%EV -16.95%E -1.30%K -1.41%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 80.39%EV -9.22%E -8.30%K -83.78%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.75%EV -17.23%E -2.46%K -2.87%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-10 14:01
LiveScore Bet🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 6.86%EV -16.95%E -1.30%K -1.41%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 80.39%EV -9.22%E -8.30%K -83.78%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.75%EV -17.23%E -2.46%K -2.87%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-10 14:00
BoyleSports🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.07%EV -29.73%E -2.70%K -2.97%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 79.25%EV -8.40%E -7.50%K -69.99%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.68%EV -17.23%E -2.46%K -2.87%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-13 08:59
Sky Bet🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 6.81%EV -16.95%E -1.30%K -1.41%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 80.53%EV -10.03%E -9.12%K -100.34%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.65%EV -17.23%E -2.46%K -2.87%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-13 15:03
Betclic (FR)🎯12.25I 8.16%NM 7.17%EV -21.75%E -1.78%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 79.82%EV -10.03%E -9.12%K -100.34%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.01%EV -20.18%E -2.99%K -3.51%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-13 08:28
PMU (FR)🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 6.88%EV -20.15%E -1.61%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.07I 93.46%NM 80.38%EV -12.49%E -11.67%K -178.39%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 12.74%EV -20.18%E -2.99%K -3.51%G +0.000%16.3%2026-10-13 02:59
Winamax (FR)🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 8.54%EV -36.12%E -3.61%K -4.01%G +0.000%1.09I 91.74%NM 78.33%EV -10.85%E -9.96%K -120.58%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.13%EV -23.14%E -3.56%K -4.21%G +0.000%17.1%2026-10-13 08:29
Unibet (FR)🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 7.64%EV -29.73%E -2.70%K -2.97%G +0.000%1.07I 93.46%NM 78.57%EV -12.49%E -11.67%K -178.39%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 13.78%EV -27.87%E -4.57%K -5.46%G +0.000%18.9%2026-10-12 15:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎18.00I 5.56%NM 5.46%1.16I 86.21%NM 84.71%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.83%1.8%2026-10-14 14:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎18.00I 5.56%NM 5.46%1.16I 86.21%NM 84.71%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.83%1.8%2026-10-14 14:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎18.00I 5.56%NM 5.45%1.16I 86.21%NM 84.54%9.80I 10.20%NM 10.01%2.0%2026-10-14 15:05
Kalshi◎16.67I 6.00%NM 5.81%1.16I 86.21%NM 83.53%9.09I 11.00%NM 10.66%3.2%2026-10-13 21:45
Smarkets◎12.50I 8.00%NM 7.18%1.09I 91.74%NM 82.38%8.60I 11.63%NM 10.44%11.4%2026-10-13 19:15