The School of Odds
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Al-Qadsiah v Al-Hilal

Kickoff: 2026-10-23 18:00 UTC

Final: Al-Qadsiah 2–3 Al-Hilal

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Qadsiah (Local)

Prediction 30.19%3.31fair odd
EV -0.367%
Edge -0.111%
Kelly -0.160%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.48%30.05%30.14%31.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.003.003.3035.71%33.34%33.33%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Hilal (Visit)

Prediction 46.06%2.17fair odd
EV -4.19%
Edge -2.01%
Kelly -3.88%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.28%46.24%45.99%48.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.982.002.0855.56%50.57%50.00%48.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.74%4.21fair odd
EV -3.36%
Edge -0.826%
Kelly -1.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.61%23.71%23.87%24.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.743.704.0728.57%26.75%27.03%24.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Qadsiah (Local): 30.19%; Al-Hilal (Visit): 46.06%; Draw: 23.74%. For Al-Qadsiah (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.31. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.30, with an expected value of -0.367%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coral🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.60%EV -0.367%E -0.111%K -0.160%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.19%EV -7.87%E -3.94%K -7.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.20%EV -7.40%E -1.90%K -2.55%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-23 15:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.92%EV -1.88%E -0.578%K -0.834%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.99%EV -7.87%E -3.94%K -7.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.10%EV -7.40%E -1.90%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-23 15:59
Pinnacle🎯3.23I 30.96%NM 29.41%EV -2.48%E -0.768%K -1.11%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 47.26%EV -7.41%E -3.69%K -7.34%G +0.000%4.07I 24.57%NM 23.34%EV -3.36%E -0.826%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-23 15:50
Tipico (DE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -3.39%E -1.06%K -1.54%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 48.74%EV -13.86%E -7.41%K -15.93%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -5.02%E -1.26%K -1.67%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-23 15:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.90%EV -6.41%E -2.07%K -3.05%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.34%EV -7.87%E -3.94%K -7.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.76%EV -7.40%E -1.90%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-23 15:59
1xBet🎯3.08I 32.47%NM 30.35%EV -7.01%E -2.28%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.37%EV -5.11%E -2.48%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.28%EV -8.58%E -2.23%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-23 09:25
Unibet (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.14%EV -9.42%E -3.14%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.91%EV -4.19%E -2.01%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.95%EV -7.40%E -1.90%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-23 15:30
SportsBet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.61%EV -9.42%E -3.14%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 45.23%EV -6.49%E -3.20%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -9.77%E -2.57%K -3.49%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-23 11:45
Unibet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -9.42%E -3.14%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.06%EV -6.95%E -3.44%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.60%EV -12.15%E -3.28%K -4.50%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-23 09:55
Grosvenor🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -9.42%E -3.14%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.06%EV -6.95%E -3.44%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.60%EV -12.15%E -3.28%K -4.50%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-23 09:55
Unibet (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -9.42%E -3.14%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.06%EV -6.95%E -3.44%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.60%EV -12.15%E -3.28%K -4.50%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-23 09:55
Unibet (NL)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -9.42%E -3.14%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.06%EV -6.95%E -3.44%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.60%EV -12.15%E -3.28%K -4.50%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-23 09:55
Svenska Spel🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -9.42%E -3.14%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.06%EV -6.95%E -3.44%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.60%EV -12.15%E -3.28%K -4.50%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-23 10:00
ATG (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -9.42%E -3.14%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.06%EV -6.95%E -3.44%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.60%EV -12.15%E -3.28%K -4.50%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-23 09:55
Paddy Power🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.05%EV -9.42%E -3.14%K -4.71%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.23%EV -10.18%E -5.22%K -10.71%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.72%EV -9.77%E -2.57%K -3.49%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-23 15:59
888sport🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -9.42%E -3.14%K -4.71%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.63%EV -10.18%E -5.22%K -10.71%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.71%EV -14.52%E -4.03%K -5.58%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-23 15:55
William Hill🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -9.42%E -3.14%K -4.71%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.63%EV -10.18%E -5.22%K -10.71%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.71%EV -14.52%E -4.03%K -5.58%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-23 15:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -9.42%E -3.14%K -4.71%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.63%EV -10.18%E -5.22%K -10.71%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.71%EV -14.52%E -4.03%K -5.58%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-23 15:55
888sport (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -9.42%E -3.14%K -4.71%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.63%EV -10.18%E -5.22%K -10.71%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.71%EV -14.52%E -4.03%K -5.58%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-23 15:55
Betclic (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.27%EV -10.93%E -3.71%K -5.61%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.79%EV -10.18%E -5.22%K -10.71%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 23.94%EV -11.43%E -3.07%K -4.19%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-23 15:28
LiveScore Bet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.15%EV -10.93%E -3.71%K -5.61%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 45.15%EV -9.25%E -4.70%K -9.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.71%EV -14.52%E -4.03%K -5.58%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-23 10:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.15%EV -10.93%E -3.71%K -5.61%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 45.15%EV -9.25%E -4.70%K -9.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.71%EV -14.52%E -4.03%K -5.58%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-23 09:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.01%EV -10.93%E -3.71%K -5.61%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.40%EV -10.18%E -5.22%K -10.71%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.59%EV -14.52%E -4.03%K -5.58%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-23 09:55
Winamax (DE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.31%EV -12.44%E -4.29%K -6.55%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.40%EV -7.87%E -3.94%K -7.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.28%EV -7.40%E -1.90%K -2.55%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-23 15:30
betfred_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.52%EV -13.05%E -4.53%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.28%EV -5.57%E -2.72%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.21%EV -10.96%E -2.92%K -3.99%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-23 08:40
Sky Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.86%EV -13.05%E -4.53%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.44%EV -7.87%E -3.94%K -7.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.69%EV -14.52%E -4.03%K -5.58%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-23 11:59
Winamax (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.35%EV -13.95%E -4.90%K -7.54%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 45.13%EV -8.79%E -4.44%K -8.97%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.52%EV -9.77%E -2.57%K -3.49%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-23 15:30
PMU (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 30.10%EV -13.95%E -4.90%K -7.54%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 45.39%EV -12.94%E -6.85%K -14.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.51%EV -16.90%E -4.83%K -6.76%G +0.000%16.6%2026-10-23 09:55
Unibet (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 29.93%EV -13.95%E -4.90%K -7.54%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 46.37%EV -15.24%E -8.28%K -18.15%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.70%EV -14.52%E -4.03%K -5.58%G +0.000%17.2%2026-10-23 15:30
BoyleSports🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 30.28%EV -15.46%E -5.52%K -8.59%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 47.11%EV -17.08%E -9.49%K -21.36%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.61%EV -10.96%E -2.92%K -3.99%G +0.000%17.9%2026-10-23 15:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.40I 29.41%NM 29.03%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.46%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.50%1.3%2026-10-23 15:59
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.45I 28.99%NM 28.57%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.39%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.04%1.5%2026-10-23 15:59
Smarkets◎3.40I 29.41%NM 28.90%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.70%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.40%1.8%2026-10-23 15:59
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.45I 28.99%NM 28.44%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.63%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.93%1.9%2026-10-23 15:55
Kalshi◎3.33I 30.03%NM 29.15%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.58%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.28%3.0%2026-10-23 15:59