The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Al-Qadsiah v Abha Club

Kickoff: 2026-10-16 13:15 UTC

Final: Al-Qadsiah 2–1 Abha Club

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Qadsiah (Local)

Prediction 83.25%1.20fair odd
EV -5.09%
Edge -4.46%
Kelly -36.35%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.14

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
79.24%83.20%83.53%85.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.041.091.101.1496.15%91.32%91.32%87.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Abha Club (Visit)

Prediction 6.18%16.18fair odd
EV +14.94%
Edge +0.803%
Kelly +0.849%
Growth +0.127%

assuming max odds 18.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.18%6.25%5.90%7.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
11.0014.8015.0018.609.09%6.76%6.67%5.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 10.57%9.46fair odd
EV +5.66%
Edge +0.566%
Kelly +0.628%
Growth +0.036%

assuming max odds 10.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.19%10.56%10.57%13.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.408.518.5010.0015.63%11.75%11.76%10.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Qadsiah (Local): 83.25%; Abha Club (Visit): 6.18%; Draw: 10.57%. For Abha Club (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 16.18. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 18.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +14.94%.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 84.59%EV -5.09%E -4.46%K -36.35%G +0.000%18.60I 5.38%NM 5.18%EV +14.94%E +0.803%K +0.849%G +0.127%9.43I 10.60%NM 10.23%EV -0.367%E -0.039%K -0.044%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-16 13:14
Pinnacle🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 84.79%EV -5.92%E -5.24%K -45.55%G +0.000%17.76I 5.63%NM 5.39%EV +9.75%E +0.549%K +0.582%G +0.057%9.76I 10.25%NM 9.82%EV +3.12%E +0.320%K +0.356%G +0.011%4.4%2026-10-16 13:10
888sport🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 84.49%EV -10.08%E -9.34%K -126.06%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.37%EV +5.05%E +0.297%K +0.316%G +0.016%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.14%EV -4.91%E -0.546%K -0.614%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-16 08:24
William Hill🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 84.49%EV -10.08%E -9.34%K -126.06%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.37%EV +5.05%E +0.297%K +0.316%G +0.016%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.14%EV -4.91%E -0.546%K -0.614%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-16 08:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 84.49%EV -10.08%E -9.34%K -126.06%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.37%EV +5.05%E +0.297%K +0.316%G +0.016%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.14%EV -4.91%E -0.546%K -0.614%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-16 08:24
Unibet (UK)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 83.09%EV -5.92%E -5.24%K -45.55%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.87%EV -1.13%E -0.070%K -0.075%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.05%EV -10.19%E -1.20%K -1.36%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-16 13:14
Tipico (DE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 85.07%EV -10.08%E -9.34%K -126.06%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.74%EV -1.13%E -0.070%K -0.075%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.19%EV +5.66%E +0.566%K +0.628%G +0.036%8.8%2026-10-16 12:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.15%EV -5.09%E -4.46%K -36.35%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.32%EV -7.31%E -0.487%K -0.522%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.53%EV -4.91%E -0.546%K -0.614%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-16 12:19
Coral🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.15%EV -5.09%E -4.46%K -36.35%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.32%EV -7.31%E -0.487%K -0.522%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.53%EV -4.91%E -0.546%K -0.614%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-16 12:24
888sport (SE)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 82.46%EV -7.59%E -6.84%K -68.97%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -7.31%E -0.487%K -0.522%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.44%EV -15.48%E -1.93%K -2.21%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-16 13:14
Unibet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 83.14%EV -8.42%E -7.65%K -84.20%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -7.31%E -0.487%K -0.522%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.76%EV -10.19%E -1.20%K -1.36%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-16 12:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 83.14%EV -8.42%E -7.65%K -84.20%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -7.31%E -0.487%K -0.522%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.76%EV -10.19%E -1.20%K -1.36%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-16 12:54
Grosvenor🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 83.14%EV -8.42%E -7.65%K -84.20%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -7.31%E -0.487%K -0.522%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.76%EV -10.19%E -1.20%K -1.36%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-16 12:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 83.14%EV -8.42%E -7.65%K -84.20%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -7.31%E -0.487%K -0.522%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.76%EV -10.19%E -1.20%K -1.36%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-16 12:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 83.14%EV -8.42%E -7.65%K -84.20%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -7.31%E -0.487%K -0.522%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.76%EV -10.19%E -1.20%K -1.36%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-16 12:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 83.14%EV -8.42%E -7.65%K -84.20%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -7.31%E -0.487%K -0.522%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.76%EV -10.19%E -1.20%K -1.36%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-16 12:55
Paddy Power🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 83.89%EV -10.08%E -9.34%K -126.06%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.04%EV -7.31%E -0.487%K -0.522%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.07%EV -4.91%E -0.546%K -0.614%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-16 13:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 82.85%EV -10.08%E -9.34%K -126.06%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 5.97%EV -7.31%E -0.487%K -0.522%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.18%EV -15.48%E -1.93%K -2.21%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-16 12:44
Virgin Bet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 82.85%EV -10.08%E -9.34%K -126.06%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 5.97%EV -7.31%E -0.487%K -0.522%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.18%EV -15.48%E -1.93%K -2.21%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-16 12:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 82.85%EV -10.08%E -9.34%K -126.06%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 5.97%EV -7.31%E -0.487%K -0.522%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.18%EV -15.48%E -1.93%K -2.21%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-16 08:45
SportsBet🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 83.41%EV -9.25%E -8.49%K -102.80%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.49%EV -13.49%E -0.963%K -1.04%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.10%EV -4.91%E -0.546%K -0.614%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-16 13:14
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 83.04%EV -10.08%E -9.34%K -126.06%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.41%EV -13.49%E -0.963%K -1.04%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.55%EV -10.19%E -1.20%K -1.36%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-16 13:14
PMU (FR)🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 83.04%EV -13.42%E -12.90%K -335.38%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.17%EV -13.49%E -0.963%K -1.04%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 10.79%EV -15.48%E -1.93%K -2.21%G +0.000%15.8%2026-10-16 12:30
Betclic (FR)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 82.15%EV -10.92%E -10.20%K -155.96%G +0.000%13.50I 7.41%NM 6.51%EV -16.57%E -1.23%K -1.33%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.34%EV -18.12%E -2.34%K -2.68%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-16 13:03
Winamax (DE)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 82.86%EV -8.42%E -7.65%K -84.20%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.01%EV -19.66%E -1.51%K -1.64%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.13%EV -4.91%E -0.546%K -0.614%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-16 13:05
betfred_uk🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 81.69%EV -7.59%E -6.84%K -68.97%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.98%EV -19.66%E -1.51%K -1.64%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.33%EV -15.48%E -1.93%K -2.21%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-16 12:20
Sky Bet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 82.10%EV -10.08%E -9.34%K -126.06%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.82%EV -19.66%E -1.51%K -1.64%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.08%EV -15.48%E -1.93%K -2.21%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-16 12:14
Winamax (FR)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 82.03%EV -9.25%E -8.49%K -102.80%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.45%EV -25.84%E -2.15%K -2.35%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.52%EV -10.19%E -1.20%K -1.36%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-16 13:05
BoyleSports🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 80.75%EV -8.42%E -7.65%K -84.20%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.40%EV -25.84%E -2.15%K -2.35%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.84%EV -20.76%E -2.77%K -3.19%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-16 04:59
Unibet (FR)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 79.24%EV -11.75%E -11.08%K -195.83%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 7.64%EV -32.02%E -2.91%K -3.20%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 13.12%EV -32.38%E -5.06%K -6.00%G +0.000%19.1%2026-10-16 13:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.14I 87.72%NM 86.55%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.48%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.97%1.4%2026-10-16 13:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.14I 87.72%NM 86.55%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.48%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.97%1.4%2026-10-16 13:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.14I 87.72%NM 86.55%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.48%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.97%1.4%2026-10-16 13:05
Kalshi◎1.14I 87.72%NM 86.24%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.92%11.11I 9.00%NM 8.85%1.7%2026-10-16 12:30
Smarkets◎1.13I 88.50%NM 86.80%21.01I 4.76%NM 4.67%11.49I 8.70%NM 8.54%2.0%2026-10-16 13:10