The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Al-Nassr v Neom

Kickoff: 2026-10-20 18:00 UTC

Final: Al-Nassr 1–0 Neom

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Nassr (Local)

Prediction 66.16%1.51fair odd
EV -4.74%
Edge -3.29%
Kelly -10.76%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.45%66.39%65.91%69.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.291.371.361.4477.52%72.82%73.53%69.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Neom (Visit)

Prediction 14.64%6.83fair odd
EV +5.39%
Edge +0.748%
Kelly +0.869%
Growth +0.047%

assuming max odds 7.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.67%14.47%14.83%15.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.506.226.107.2018.18%16.07%16.39%13.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.21%5.21fair odd
EV +3.14%
Edge +0.586%
Kelly +0.720%
Growth +0.023%

assuming max odds 5.37

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.93%19.14%19.26%20.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.604.505.3723.81%21.72%22.22%18.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Nassr (Local): 66.16%; Neom (Visit): 14.64%; Draw: 19.21%. For Neom (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.83. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.39%.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.09%EV -12.67%E -9.60%K -39.61%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.67%EV +5.39%E +0.748%K +0.869%G +0.047%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.24%EV -3.96%E -0.792%K -0.991%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-20 17:40
SportsBet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.26%EV -11.35%E -8.47%K -33.39%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.07%EV +2.46%E +0.351%K +0.410%G +0.010%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.67%EV -5.88%E -1.20%K -1.51%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-20 17:35
Paddy Power🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.03%EV -12.01%E -9.03%K -36.40%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.93%EV +2.46%E +0.351%K +0.410%G +0.010%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.05%EV -8.76%E -1.85%K -2.34%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-20 17:31
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.03%EV -12.01%E -9.03%K -36.40%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.93%EV +2.46%E +0.351%K +0.410%G +0.010%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.05%EV -8.76%E -1.85%K -2.34%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-20 17:50
Pinnacle🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.56%EV -7.38%E -5.27%K -18.46%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.71%EV +0.995%E +0.144%K +0.169%G +0.002%5.05I 19.80%NM 18.73%EV -3.00%E -0.594%K -0.741%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-20 17:50
1xBet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.34%EV -5.40%E -3.77%K -12.55%G +0.000%6.54I 15.29%NM 14.72%EV -4.27%E -0.654%K -0.772%G +0.000%5.37I 18.62%NM 17.93%EV +3.14%E +0.586%K +0.720%G +0.023%3.8%2026-10-20 17:55
Coral🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.72%EV -4.74%E -3.29%K -10.76%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.56%EV -4.86%E -0.748%K -0.884%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.72%EV -7.80%E -1.63%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-20 16:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.72%EV -4.74%E -3.29%K -10.76%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.56%EV -4.86%E -0.748%K -0.884%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.72%EV -7.80%E -1.63%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-20 16:25
Unibet (UK)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.90%EV -6.06%E -4.27%K -14.43%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV -4.86%E -0.748%K -0.884%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.70%EV -8.76%E -1.85%K -2.34%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-20 17:50
betfred_uk🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.45%EV -10.03%E -7.37%K -27.86%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -4.86%E -0.748%K -0.884%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.65%EV -11.65%E -2.53%K -3.23%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-20 16:40
Sky Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 66.95%EV -12.01%E -9.03%K -36.40%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.70%EV -4.86%E -0.748%K -0.884%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.36%EV -11.65%E -2.53%K -3.23%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-20 17:40
Unibet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 64.45%EV -6.72%E -4.77%K -16.39%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.90%EV -10.71%E -1.76%K -2.10%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.65%EV -15.49%E -3.52%K -4.55%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-20 17:35
Unibet (NL)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 64.45%EV -6.72%E -4.77%K -16.39%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.90%EV -10.71%E -1.76%K -2.10%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.65%EV -15.49%E -3.52%K -4.55%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-20 17:35
Unibet (SE)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 64.45%EV -6.72%E -4.77%K -16.39%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.90%EV -10.71%E -1.76%K -2.10%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.65%EV -15.49%E -3.52%K -4.55%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-20 17:35
Grosvenor🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 64.45%EV -6.72%E -4.77%K -16.39%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.90%EV -10.71%E -1.76%K -2.10%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.65%EV -15.49%E -3.52%K -4.55%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-20 17:35
Svenska Spel🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 64.45%EV -6.72%E -4.77%K -16.39%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.90%EV -10.71%E -1.76%K -2.10%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.65%EV -15.49%E -3.52%K -4.55%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-20 17:35
ATG (SE)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 64.45%EV -6.72%E -4.77%K -16.39%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.90%EV -10.71%E -1.76%K -2.10%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.65%EV -15.49%E -3.52%K -4.55%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-20 17:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 64.63%EV -8.71%E -6.31%K -22.91%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.87%EV -12.18%E -2.03%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.50%EV -16.45%E -3.78%K -4.91%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-20 17:35
LiveScore Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 64.63%EV -8.71%E -6.31%K -22.91%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.87%EV -12.18%E -2.03%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.50%EV -16.45%E -3.78%K -4.91%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-20 17:35
BoyleSports🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.41%EV -10.03%E -7.37%K -27.86%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.83%EV -12.18%E -2.03%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.77%EV -13.57%E -3.01%K -3.88%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-20 16:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 64.96%EV -10.03%E -7.37%K -27.86%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.73%EV -12.18%E -2.03%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.31%EV -16.45%E -3.78%K -4.91%G +0.000%13.2%2026-10-20 17:35
Winamax (DE)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 66.39%EV -9.37%E -6.84%K -25.32%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.42%EV -13.64%E -2.31%K -2.78%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.19%EV -3.96%E -0.792%K -0.991%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-20 17:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 65.89%EV -12.01%E -9.03%K -36.40%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 14.85%EV -13.64%E -2.31%K -2.78%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 19.26%EV -12.61%E -2.77%K -3.55%G +0.000%14.1%2026-10-20 17:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.88%EV -10.03%E -7.37%K -27.86%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.45%EV -15.11%E -2.60%K -3.15%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.67%EV -7.80%E -1.63%K -2.05%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-20 17:50
William Hill🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.07%EV -10.03%E -7.37%K -27.86%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.26%EV -15.11%E -2.60%K -3.15%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.67%EV -13.57%E -3.01%K -3.88%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-20 17:56
888sport🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 64.99%EV -10.03%E -7.37%K -27.86%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.37%EV -15.84%E -2.75%K -3.33%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.64%EV -13.57%E -3.01%K -3.88%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-20 17:56
888sport (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 64.99%EV -10.03%E -7.37%K -27.86%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.37%EV -15.84%E -2.75%K -3.33%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.64%EV -13.57%E -3.01%K -3.88%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-20 17:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 64.99%EV -10.03%E -7.37%K -27.86%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.37%EV -15.84%E -2.75%K -3.33%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.64%EV -13.57%E -3.01%K -3.88%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-20 17:56
PMU (FR)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 64.60%EV -12.01%E -9.03%K -36.40%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 14.94%EV -15.84%E -2.75%K -3.33%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.46%EV -19.33%E -4.60%K -6.04%G +0.000%16.4%2026-10-20 17:15
Unibet (FR)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 65.02%EV -14.66%E -11.36%K -50.55%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.25%EV -19.50%E -3.54%K -4.33%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 19.73%EV -18.37%E -4.32%K -5.65%G +0.000%19.2%2026-10-20 17:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.43I 69.93%NM 69.48%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.12%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.40%0.6%2026-10-20 17:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.43I 69.93%NM 69.48%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.12%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.40%0.6%2026-10-20 17:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.43I 69.93%NM 69.48%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.12%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.40%0.6%2026-10-20 17:45
Smarkets◎1.42I 70.42%NM 69.39%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.02%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.59%1.5%2026-10-20 17:56
Kalshi◎1.41I 70.92%NM 69.59%7.69I 13.00%NM 12.76%5.56I 17.99%NM 17.65%1.9%2026-10-20 17:30