The School of Odds
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Al-Nassr v Diriyah Club

Kickoff: 2026-10-09 18:00 UTC

Final: Al-Nassr 3–0 Diriyah Club

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Nassr (Local)

Prediction 63.35%1.58fair odd
EV -6.88%
Edge -4.68%
Kelly -14.64%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.47

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.80%63.26%63.29%64.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.411.401.4773.53%70.83%71.43%68.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Diriyah Club (Visit)

Prediction 17.36%5.76fair odd
EV +4.13%
Edge +0.689%
Kelly +0.827%
Growth +0.034%

assuming max odds 6.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.37%17.37%17.32%18.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.605.415.506.0021.74%18.48%18.18%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.30%5.18fair odd
EV -2.92%
Edge -0.581%
Kelly -0.726%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.03

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.51%19.37%19.39%20.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.554.505.0323.81%21.96%22.22%19.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Nassr (Local): 63.35%; Diriyah Club (Visit): 17.36%; Draw: 19.30%. For Diriyah Club (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.76. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.13%.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.80%EV -8.78%E -6.10%K -19.96%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.55%EV +4.13%E +0.689%K +0.827%G +0.034%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.65%EV -8.33%E -1.75%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-04 10:31
SportsBet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.66%EV -9.42%E -6.58%K -21.90%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.67%EV +2.40%E +0.406%K +0.489%G +0.012%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.67%EV -9.29%E -1.98%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-02 20:55
Unibet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.69%EV -11.32%E -8.08%K -28.29%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.62%EV +0.662%E +0.114%K +0.138%G +0.001%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.69%EV -11.22%E -2.44%K -3.12%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-02 20:15
Grosvenor🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.69%EV -11.32%E -8.08%K -28.29%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.62%EV +0.662%E +0.114%K +0.138%G +0.001%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.69%EV -11.22%E -2.44%K -3.12%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-02 20:14
Unibet (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.69%EV -11.32%E -8.08%K -28.29%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.62%EV +0.662%E +0.114%K +0.138%G +0.001%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.69%EV -11.22%E -2.44%K -3.12%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-02 20:15
Unibet (NL)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.69%EV -11.32%E -8.08%K -28.29%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.62%EV +0.662%E +0.114%K +0.138%G +0.001%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.69%EV -11.22%E -2.44%K -3.12%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-02 20:15
Svenska Spel🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.69%EV -11.32%E -8.08%K -28.29%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.62%EV +0.662%E +0.114%K +0.138%G +0.001%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.69%EV -11.22%E -2.44%K -3.12%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-02 20:15
ATG (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.69%EV -11.32%E -8.08%K -28.29%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.62%EV +0.662%E +0.114%K +0.138%G +0.001%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.69%EV -11.22%E -2.44%K -3.12%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-02 20:15
Virgin Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 64.74%EV -12.58%E -9.12%K -33.12%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.40%EV +0.662%E +0.114%K +0.138%G +0.001%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.85%EV -13.15%E -2.92%K -3.76%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-02 20:14
LiveScore Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 64.74%EV -12.58%E -9.12%K -33.12%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.40%EV +0.662%E +0.114%K +0.138%G +0.001%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.85%EV -13.15%E -2.92%K -3.76%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-02 20:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 64.99%EV -13.85%E -10.18%K -38.47%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.37%EV -0.206%E -0.036%K -0.043%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.64%EV -13.15%E -2.92%K -3.76%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-02 20:15
1xBet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.48%EV -6.88%E -4.68%K -14.64%G +0.000%5.53I 18.08%NM 16.87%EV -4.02%E -0.728%K -0.888%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.65%EV -8.33%E -1.75%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-03 01:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.74%EV -8.15%E -5.62%K -18.11%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.80%EV -4.54%E -0.826%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.46%EV -8.33%E -1.75%K -2.22%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-02 21:05
betfred_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.22%EV -8.78%E -6.10%K -19.96%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -4.54%E -0.826%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.23%EV -13.15%E -2.92%K -3.76%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-02 21:00
Paddy Power🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.87%EV -11.32%E -8.08%K -28.29%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.26%EV -4.54%E -0.826%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.87%EV -13.15%E -2.92%K -3.76%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-02 20:59
Tipico (DE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.47%EV -8.15%E -5.62%K -18.11%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.36%EV -8.02%E -1.51%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.17%EV -7.36%E -1.53%K -1.94%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-03 23:05
Pinnacle🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 63.78%EV -7.52%E -5.15%K -16.34%G +0.000%5.26I 19.01%NM 17.70%EV -8.71%E -1.66%K -2.04%G +0.000%5.03I 19.88%NM 18.51%EV -2.92%E -0.581%K -0.726%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-02 19:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 63.40%EV -12.58%E -9.12%K -33.12%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.16%EV -11.49%E -2.25%K -2.80%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.44%EV -13.15%E -2.92%K -3.76%G +0.000%14.3%2026-10-02 21:05
Unibet (FR)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 63.60%EV -13.85%E -10.18%K -38.47%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 16.96%EV -11.49%E -2.25%K -2.80%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 19.44%EV -14.12%E -3.17%K -4.09%G +0.000%15.6%2026-10-03 18:05
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.91%EV -8.78%E -6.10%K -19.96%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.83%EV -13.22%E -2.64%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.26%EV -15.08%E -3.43%K -4.44%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-02 21:55
William Hill🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.91%EV -8.78%E -6.10%K -19.96%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.83%EV -13.22%E -2.64%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.26%EV -15.08%E -3.43%K -4.44%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-02 21:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.91%EV -8.78%E -6.10%K -19.96%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.83%EV -13.22%E -2.64%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.26%EV -15.08%E -3.43%K -4.44%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-02 21:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.91%EV -8.78%E -6.10%K -19.96%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.83%EV -13.22%E -2.64%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.26%EV -15.08%E -3.43%K -4.44%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-02 21:55
Sky Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 61.98%EV -11.32%E -8.08%K -28.29%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.36%EV -13.22%E -2.64%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.66%EV -18.94%E -4.51%K -5.92%G +0.000%15.2%2026-10-03 10:20
Winamax (DE)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 63.06%EV -11.95%E -8.60%K -30.64%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.89%EV -14.96%E -3.05%K -3.84%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.05%EV -11.22%E -2.44%K -3.12%G +0.000%14.1%2026-10-02 21:04
BoyleSports🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 61.80%EV -11.32%E -8.08%K -28.29%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.22%EV -17.56%E -3.70%K -4.68%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 19.98%EV -16.43%E -3.80%K -4.93%G +0.000%15.6%2026-10-03 16:25
Winamax (FR)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 62.14%EV -13.22%E -9.65%K -35.72%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.51%EV -20.16%E -4.38%K -5.60%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.35%EV -15.08%E -3.43%K -4.44%G +0.000%17.5%2026-10-02 21:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.47I 68.03%NM 62.97%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%8.0%2026-10-05 11:45
Smarkets◎1.38I 72.46%NM 62.10%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.49%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.41%16.7%2026-10-02 21:10