The School of Odds
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Al-Nassr v Al-Kholood

Kickoff: 2026-10-29 18:00 UTC

Final: Al-Nassr 5–3 Al-Kholood

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Nassr (Local)

Prediction 78.14%1.28fair odd
EV -4.67%
Edge -3.83%
Kelly -21.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.00%78.42%77.59%81.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.121.171.171.2289.29%85.45%85.11%81.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Kholood (Visit)

Prediction 8.72%11.47fair odd
EV +13.38%
Edge +1.03%
Kelly +1.11%
Growth +0.149%

assuming max odds 13.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.94%8.57%8.72%10.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.4010.5510.0013.0011.90%9.48%10.00%7.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 13.14%7.61fair odd
EV +8.55%
Edge +1.04%
Kelly +1.18%
Growth +0.101%

assuming max odds 8.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.11%13.01%13.69%15.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.506.626.508.2618.18%15.10%15.38%12.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Nassr (Local): 78.14%; Al-Kholood (Visit): 8.72%; Draw: 13.14%. For Al-Kholood (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 11.47. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 13.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +13.38%.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
William Hill🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 79.03%EV -10.14%E -8.82%K -67.62%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.99%EV +13.38%E +1.03%K +1.11%G +0.149%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.98%EV -14.58%E -2.24%K -2.65%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-29 17:15
888sport🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 79.17%EV -10.92%E -9.58%K -78.03%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.94%EV +13.38%E +1.03%K +1.11%G +0.149%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.89%EV -14.58%E -2.24%K -2.65%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-29 17:10
888sport (SE)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 79.17%EV -10.92%E -9.58%K -78.03%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.94%EV +13.38%E +1.03%K +1.11%G +0.149%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.89%EV -14.58%E -2.24%K -2.65%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-29 17:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 79.17%EV -10.92%E -9.58%K -78.03%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.94%EV +13.38%E +1.03%K +1.11%G +0.149%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.89%EV -14.58%E -2.24%K -2.65%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-29 17:10
1xBet🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 80.44%EV -7.02%E -5.90%K -36.93%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV +4.65%E +0.388%K +0.423%G +0.020%8.26I 12.11%NM 11.59%EV +8.55%E +1.04%K +1.18%G +0.101%4.5%2026-10-29 17:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 81.31%EV -12.49%E -11.15%K -104.06%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.59%EV +4.65%E +0.388%K +0.423%G +0.020%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.11%EV +7.77%E +0.947%K +1.08%G +0.084%9.8%2026-10-29 17:55
SportsBet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 80.24%EV -10.92%E -9.58%K -78.03%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.95%EV +0.294%E +0.026%K +0.028%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.80%EV +1.85%E +0.239%K +0.274%G +0.005%9.3%2026-10-29 17:45
betfred_uk🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 77.59%EV -7.80%E -6.61%K -43.33%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.32%EV -4.07%E -0.370%K -0.407%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.09%EV -14.58%E -2.24%K -2.65%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-29 17:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 79.78%EV -11.71%E -10.36%K -90.04%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.20%EV -4.07%E -0.370%K -0.407%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.02%EV -1.43%E -0.191%K -0.221%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-29 17:45
Paddy Power🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 79.93%EV -12.49%E -11.15%K -104.06%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.14%EV -4.07%E -0.370%K -0.407%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.94%EV -1.43%E -0.191%K -0.221%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-29 17:45
Pinnacle🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.64%EV -7.02%E -5.90%K -36.93%G +0.000%10.98I 9.11%NM 8.63%EV -4.24%E -0.386%K -0.425%G +0.000%8.08I 12.38%NM 11.73%EV +6.19%E +0.766%K +0.874%G +0.054%5.5%2026-10-29 17:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.99%EV -6.24%E -5.20%K -31.18%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.80%EV -8.43%E -0.803%K -0.887%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.21%EV -14.58%E -2.24%K -2.65%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-29 17:59
Unibet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 75.21%EV -5.45%E -4.51%K -25.97%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.10%EV -12.79%E -1.28%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.69%EV -23.78%E -4.10%K -4.95%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-29 17:55
Grosvenor🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 75.21%EV -5.45%E -4.51%K -25.97%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.10%EV -12.79%E -1.28%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.69%EV -23.78%E -4.10%K -4.95%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-29 17:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 75.21%EV -5.45%E -4.51%K -25.97%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.10%EV -12.79%E -1.28%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.69%EV -23.78%E -4.10%K -4.95%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-29 17:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 75.21%EV -5.45%E -4.51%K -25.97%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.10%EV -12.79%E -1.28%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.69%EV -23.78%E -4.10%K -4.95%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-29 17:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 75.21%EV -5.45%E -4.51%K -25.97%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.10%EV -12.79%E -1.28%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.69%EV -23.78%E -4.10%K -4.95%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-29 17:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 75.21%EV -5.45%E -4.51%K -25.97%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.10%EV -12.79%E -1.28%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.69%EV -23.78%E -4.10%K -4.95%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-29 17:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 75.42%EV -7.02%E -5.90%K -36.93%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.97%EV -12.79%E -1.28%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.61%EV -24.43%E -4.25%K -5.14%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-29 17:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 75.42%EV -7.02%E -5.90%K -36.93%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.97%EV -12.79%E -1.28%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.61%EV -24.43%E -4.25%K -5.14%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-29 17:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 75.57%EV -7.80%E -6.61%K -43.33%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.92%EV -12.79%E -1.28%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.51%EV -24.43%E -4.25%K -5.14%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-29 17:55
Coral🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.45%EV -4.67%E -3.83%K -21.24%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -17.15%E -1.81%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.60%EV -1.43%E -0.191%K -0.221%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-29 17:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.76%EV -4.67%E -3.83%K -21.24%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.86%EV -17.15%E -1.81%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -8.00%E -1.14%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-29 17:30
Winamax (DE)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 78.63%EV -9.36%E -8.07%K -58.51%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.60%EV -17.15%E -1.81%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.77%EV +1.85%E +0.239%K +0.274%G +0.005%9.6%2026-10-29 17:59
BoyleSports🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 76.74%EV -8.58%E -7.33%K -50.47%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.45%EV -17.15%E -1.81%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.81%EV -14.58%E -2.24%K -2.65%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-29 17:54
Winamax (FR)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 78.29%EV -10.92%E -9.58%K -78.03%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.40%EV -17.15%E -1.81%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.31%EV -4.72%E -0.651%K -0.755%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-29 17:40
Sky Bet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 77.95%EV -10.92%E -9.58%K -78.03%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.35%EV -17.15%E -1.81%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.69%EV -8.00%E -1.14%K -1.33%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-29 17:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 76.78%EV -10.92%E -9.58%K -78.03%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.21%EV -17.15%E -1.81%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.00%EV -17.86%E -2.86%K -3.40%G +0.000%14.2%2026-10-29 17:41
PMU (FR)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 75.34%EV -10.92%E -9.58%K -78.03%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.04%EV -17.15%E -1.81%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.62%EV -27.72%E -5.04%K -6.16%G +0.000%16.4%2026-10-29 17:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 75.00%EV -12.49%E -11.15%K -104.06%G +0.000%8.40I 11.90%NM 10.00%EV -26.74%E -3.18%K -3.61%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.00%EV -26.40%E -4.71%K -5.74%G +0.000%19.0%2026-10-29 17:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.20I 83.33%NM 82.24%14.29I 7.00%NM 6.91%9.09I 11.00%NM 10.86%1.3%2026-10-29 17:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.20I 83.33%NM 82.03%14.00I 7.14%NM 7.03%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.94%1.6%2026-10-29 17:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.20I 83.33%NM 82.03%14.00I 7.14%NM 7.03%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.94%1.6%2026-10-29 17:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.20I 83.33%NM 82.03%14.00I 7.14%NM 7.03%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.94%1.6%2026-10-29 17:55
Smarkets◎1.20I 83.33%NM 81.83%14.01I 7.14%NM 7.01%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.16%1.8%2026-10-29 17:55

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