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Al-Nassr v Al-Hazem
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Al-Nassr (Local)
Prediction 84.89%1.18fair odd
EV -5.77%
Edge -5.20%
Kelly -52.48%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.11
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
83.14%84.82%85.15%87.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.031.061.061.1197.09%94.23%94.34%90.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Al-Hazem (Visit)
Prediction 5.66%17.66fair odd
EV +18.89%
Edge +0.899%
Kelly +0.944%
Growth +0.178%
assuming max odds 21.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
4.36%5.64%5.46%6.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
13.0018.4719.5021.007.69%5.41%5.13%4.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 9.45%10.58fair odd
EV +13.39%
Edge +1.12%
Kelly +1.22%
Growth +0.163%
assuming max odds 12.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.06%9.54%9.39%11.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.0010.0810.0012.0012.50%9.92%10.00%8.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Nassr (Local): 84.89%; Al-Hazem (Visit): 5.66%; Draw: 9.45%. For Al-Hazem (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 17.66. 17 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 21.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +18.89%.
Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 86.36%EV -9.17%E -8.57%K -130.97%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.40%EV +18.89%E +0.899%K +0.944%G +0.178% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV -5.51%E -0.551%K -0.612%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-02-21 18:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 86.85%EV -10.02%E -9.45%K -166.95%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.38%EV +18.89%E +0.899%K +0.944%G +0.178% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.77%EV -0.787%E -0.075%K -0.083%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-02-21 18:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 86.85%EV -10.02%E -9.45%K -166.95%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.38%EV +18.89%E +0.899%K +0.944%G +0.178% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.77%EV -0.787%E -0.075%K -0.083%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-02-21 18:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 86.85%EV -10.02%E -9.45%K -166.95%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.38%EV +18.89%E +0.899%K +0.944%G +0.178% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.77%EV -0.787%E -0.075%K -0.083%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-02-21 18:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 86.85%EV -10.02%E -9.45%K -166.95%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.38%EV +18.89%E +0.899%K +0.944%G +0.178% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.77%EV -0.787%E -0.075%K -0.083%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-02-21 18:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 86.85%EV -10.02%E -9.45%K -166.95%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.38%EV +18.89%E +0.899%K +0.944%G +0.178% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.77%EV -0.787%E -0.075%K -0.083%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-02-21 18:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 86.85%EV -10.02%E -9.45%K -166.95%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.38%EV +18.89%E +0.899%K +0.944%G +0.178% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.77%EV -0.787%E -0.075%K -0.083%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-02-21 18:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 86.47%EV -10.02%E -9.45%K -166.95%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.36%EV +18.89%E +0.899%K +0.944%G +0.178% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.17%EV -5.51%E -0.551%K -0.612%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-02-21 18:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 86.47%EV -10.02%E -9.45%K -166.95%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.36%EV +18.89%E +0.899%K +0.944%G +0.178% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.17%EV -5.51%E -0.551%K -0.612%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-02-21 18:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 86.47%EV -10.02%E -9.45%K -166.95%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.36%EV +18.89%E +0.899%K +0.944%G +0.178% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.17%EV -5.51%E -0.551%K -0.612%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-02-21 18:55 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 87.11%EV -5.77%E -5.20%K -52.48%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.83%EV +13.23%E +0.661%K +0.696%G +0.092% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.06%EV +13.39%E +1.12%K +1.22%G +0.163% | 3.4% | 2026-02-21 18:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 86.39%EV -10.87%E -10.35%K -217.31%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.54%EV +13.23%E +0.661%K +0.696%G +0.092% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.07%EV -5.51%E -0.551%K -0.612%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-02-21 18:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 85.21%EV -10.02%E -9.45%K -166.95%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.75%EV +7.56%E +0.398%K +0.420%G +0.032% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.04%EV -14.96%E -1.66%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-02-21 18:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 86.41%EV -12.56%E -12.20%K -418.78%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.68%EV +7.56%E +0.398%K +0.420%G +0.032% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.90%EV -5.51%E -0.551%K -0.612%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-02-21 18:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 86.41%EV -12.56%E -12.20%K -418.78%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.68%EV +7.56%E +0.398%K +0.420%G +0.032% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.90%EV -5.51%E -0.551%K -0.612%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-02-21 18:55 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 85.62%EV -8.32%E -7.70%K -103.99%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.14%EV +1.90%E +0.106%K +0.112%G +0.002% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.25%EV -5.51%E -0.551%K -0.612%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-02-21 18:55 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 86.56%EV -10.02%E -9.45%K -166.95%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.10%EV +1.90%E +0.106%K +0.112%G +0.002% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.34%EV +3.94%E +0.358%K +0.394%G +0.016% | 9.0% | 2026-02-21 18:25 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 84.26%EV -10.02%E -9.45%K -166.95%G +0.000% | 15.80I 6.33%NM 5.65%EV -10.55%E -0.668%K -0.713%G +0.000% | 8.85I 11.30%NM 10.09%EV -16.38%E -1.85%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-02-21 18:55 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 83.14%EV -9.17%E -8.57%K -130.97%G +0.000% | 15.50I 6.45%NM 5.74%EV -12.25%E -0.790%K -0.845%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.12%EV -24.41%E -3.05%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-02-21 18:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 85.80%EV -10.87%E -10.35%K -217.31%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.01%EV -15.08%E -1.01%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.19%EV +3.94%E +0.358%K +0.394%G +0.016% | 11.0% | 2026-02-21 18:44 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 85.06%EV -9.17%E -8.57%K -130.97%G +0.000% | 14.50I 6.90%NM 6.28%EV -17.91%E -1.24%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.67%EV -0.787%E -0.075%K -0.083%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-02-21 18:55 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 83.90%EV -9.17%E -8.57%K -130.97%G +0.000% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 6.65%EV -23.57%E -1.75%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.45%EV -10.24%E -1.08%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-02-21 18:50 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 83.25%EV -9.17%E -8.57%K -130.97%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.85%EV -26.40%E -2.03%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.90%EV -14.96%E -1.66%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-02-21 18:30 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 84.33%EV -10.87%E -10.35%K -217.31%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.81%EV -26.40%E -2.03%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.86%EV -5.51%E -0.551%K -0.612%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-02-21 18:45 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.11I 90.09%NM 88.90% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.80% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.31% | 1.3% | 2026-02-21 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.11I 90.09%NM 88.90% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.80% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.31% | 1.3% | 2026-02-21 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.11I 90.09%NM 88.90% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.80% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.31% | 1.3% | 2026-02-21 18:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.11I 90.09%NM 88.76% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.94% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.30% | 1.5% | 2026-02-21 18:55 |